to clarify what i said earlier, if you were only trying to collect this money by valuebetting when your hand improved, you would need to win 9.568/.2826=33.857 on average. the reason for this is because 9.568 is averaged over all river possibilities; if we only stand to make money when our hand improves (28.26% of the time), then we need to make up for all the scenarios when it does not. however, like i said earlier, i expect for some marginal profit to come from a c/f strat on the river when we miss and he checks back and we win, and it is possible that some rivers would offer profitable bluffing opportunities (6o possibly).

where/how to draw the line is a really hard question (esp in game), and im not sure i can give a very good/satisfactory answer. essentially you are trying to approximate his strategy on every river and figure out what you can expect to earn vs those strats on each river. since there are 46 possible rivers, this is a daunting task even without considering the fact that approximating someones strategy correctly on even one river can be difficult (this also implies that you have a good idea of their range). wrt to the strategy portion, you will mainly be relying on reads to determine how he will play his range, or assigning a default strategy you believe is reasonable/correct. wrt to the river scenarios, its probably easiest to separate river types into buckets based on how the change range strength/hand strength. in this case, we might want to think of {aces}{spades}{nines}{offsuit sixes}{bricks}, because we may think that these groups are distinctly different in some meaningful way. of course, you could also break {spades} down into {spades>T}{spades<T} if you think that when V no longer likely holds top pair that our valuebets will earn less, making these groups different. then all that is left is to estimate the value of each bucket of outcomes and aggregate them.

Preflop is fine, dont have to 3bet just because someone's wide and you could be ahead of them.

On the turn I'm between folding and calling because the turn bet is so big but you are getting direct odds plus some implied odds

Yeah I'm deff not looking to fold pre here. I think preflop is an honest split between 3betting and calling. I don't think we should be THAT happy about 3betting the (said) limpy/weaker player out and getting it HU oop with the other reg (which imo is the most likely outcome if reg is as described)

Just giving a different opinion since I saw some ppl saying slam dunk 3bet.

I don't have much to add about post flop, but I will say getting him to fold tpgk here is pretty ambitious.

I will say, if you had 3bet preflop we would be able to rep so so much more, but the pot would have been bloated as hell if both villains called, and we can't even sure if he would fold tpgk then, but it is way more likely for sure.

Yeah... I reread this a few times...and I'm glad my line (fold OTT) is the fishy one.

bout 3.50/10.00

grunch:

fold pre: pretty looking hand, but I'll never win a big pot with it from OOP like this, unless I'm specifically up against a smaller flush draw and we spade out.

flop: weak/passive guy leads out into preflop raiser? alarm begins to ring. I don't mind a call if you're 175-200bb deep here. I think you're too shallow to call profitably, unless you think you can take it away. Obviously you think you can, Q.E.D.

turn: nice turn! but now the weak/passive guy bombs? I think I'm done here. I don't know how I would have gotten here.

I don't know what level the guy is on. can he read hands? this is a pretty random-looking bluff, I expect that you got looked up. I'm just not sure what you think you're repping with the flop check and turn check before jamming...

I really don't understand the shove. $220 pot so hey here's my remaining $450 against V who covers and won't fold TP to a big overbet so now I need to hit one of my 14 outs.