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2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision 2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision

04-20-2014 , 08:13 PM
I am posting this hand as it is by far the biggest hand I have ever played in my life. I am actually the Villain in this hand, I wanted to see what mistakes you think Hero made and then as played, what is the optimal way to proceed.

Hero - Early 30's, super super aggro. Probably feels like he is the best player at the table (I as Villain thought I was as well).

Villain - Mid 20's wearing a hat and hoodie. Seems to be only other decent player at table.

Stacks - Hero: $2500 Villain: $2800

Folds, 1 middle position limper, Villain calls $5 on button, Hero sees 99 and raises to $40. Middle position calls and now has $125 back. Villain calls.

Flop ($122): 652 Hero bets 1 black $100 chip. Middle position player moves all in for $125. Villain calls $125. Hero calls $25.

Turn($497): 9. Hero throws out 3 black $100 chips. Villain thinks for 30 seconds and puts in a stack of red with 7 black on top for a raise to $800. Hero...?
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:18 PM
Hero stacks the villain by moving in and gets called by KK or AA. River bricks. Close?
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze
Hero stacks the villain by moving in and gets called by KK or AA. River bricks. Close?
Doubt villain ever has KK or AA here. He should have all worse sets in his range though, which we crush. And we aren't doing horribly against 87 or 43 either. I agree with moving in here.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:50 PM
Hero should just shove turn.

Villian can have 9 combos of worse sets and 4 combos of 87s which we have a redraw against.

Hero is also at the top of his range here and with His aggressive image he should get paid off enough here.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze
Hero stacks the villain by moving in and gets called by KK or AA. River bricks. Close?
Don't think villain has AA/KK in his range after limp-calling pre and then c/c flop. Doubt villain's range is ever wider than sets, 34s and 87s (and I'd discount 34s a bit due to PF). If villain is very good and capable of folding a lower set to a jam, this might be a call on the turn. Definitely never folding though.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle21
Hero should just shove turn.

Villian can have 9 combos of worse sets and 4 combos of 87s which we have a redraw against.

Hero is also at the top of his range here and with His aggressive image he should get paid off enough here.
Don't shove turn imo.

We're 500BB deep.

Villain can have ~16 combos of 87 and ~16 combos of 43.

So for straight up value, homey, I see 32 straights and 9 sets.

He might even fold bottom set to a turn shove.

I honestly have no idea what to do next. Are we allowed to say that in this forum? Must be against TOS because I've never seen someone say so.

I don't like shoving turn.

If we just call, we're oop on the river, and I doubt villain pays off with straights when the board pairs.

Calling turn with the intention to ever fold on the river seems pretty bad.

Planning to continue calling on the river unimproved also seems pretty meh.

Our hand range looks relatively weak given pre-flop (lots of overpairs). Flop and turn texture are way better for a limp/caller pre-flop.

Could villain bluff with 77, 88? I doubt it.

Really tough spot.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tucco
And we aren't doing horribly against 87 or 43 either. I agree with moving in here.
We're a 4:1 dog against straights. I'd say that's pretty horrible.

That's like a villain flipping over AA pre-flop, and we decide to call with TT because we aren't doing horribly.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I honestly have no idea what to do next.

Really tough spot.
Bro this is an easy hand.

Puke all over the table.
Then the hand plays it self.

But really though. This hand is just ugly.

I mean, clearly villain is repping 87 here. Or 43. But 43 might actually raise the flop small to build the pot.

I mean, we are getting a direct 3.2:1 on our call. And we only need 4:1 to call with the intention of boating up on the river. So we only need to get another $320 into the pot on the river to make a call profitable. I can't really see villain folding for $400 more into a $2,000 pot on the river. It's just so bad. He would have to put us on a boat and boat only.

I can't really see folding here. I think I call.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:19 PM
I guess I change my mind from saying I have no idea.

I'd call.

I think shipping is bad for reasons mentioned.

We are getting 3:1, which is pretty good even if we don't make much money when we bink. Though we're oop, we can still see what happens on the river for those odds.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
I mean, clearly villain is repping 87 here. Or 43. But 43 might actually raise the flop small to build the pot.
I think that's another nuance here. MP went all in for less than a full raise, so I think the flop betting was capped and there was no option to raise then.

Yeah, folding is pretty bad now that I think more about it.

I think calling is best.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:23 PM
What color chips does hero have back?
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I think that's another nuance here. MP went all in for less than a full raise, so I think the flop betting was capped and there was no option to raise then.
Pretty sure V has his whole range of options on the flop.

Hero raised, SS V shoved, then V can take any action he wants. He hasn't called the $100 first, so he can raise flat or fold still.
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04-20-2014 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbobwe00
What color chips does hero have back?
Ha I assume that's sarcasm, I am just trying to include everything that happened down to color because sometimes that can mean something. After the $800 raise, all red.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:34 PM
Also, judging by the responses, it seems like a very strange spot (obviously). Did Hero play it poorly earlier to put himself in this spot? Is this an optimal line up to this point?
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze
Hero stacks the villain by moving in and gets called by KK or AA. River bricks. Close?
I really hope that you're trolling for the sake of your win rate.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
Pretty sure V has his whole range of options on the flop.

Hero raised, SS V shoved, then V can take any action he wants. He hasn't called the $100 first, so he can raise flat or fold still.
Yeah, got it.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 09:55 PM
hero shoves all in and expects to see a set most of the time in villains hand

if he has 34 then its a massive cooler and we have outs

nh
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04-20-2014 , 09:57 PM
i think that hero's betsizing on the flop and turn are bad. he should call now. on the river he should call if he thinks that V slowplays sets on the flop somewhat frequently and would shove them for value on the river.

having more information on preflop would be helpful, namely how wide hero is raising here (or just an estimate since OP is V)- super super aggro can mean many things. im also going to go ahead and assume that V doesnt limp/call an 8x raise with 87o/34o
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04-20-2014 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
... im also going to go ahead and assume that V doesnt limp/call an 8x raise with 87o/34o
Why not? Villain is closing action and has the best position pre-flop 500BB deep and needs to call off 7BB more, which is less than 1.5% of stacks.

I think those are easily in the range of hands he can call.
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04-20-2014 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
i think that hero's betsizing on the flop and turn are bad. he should call now. on the river he should call if he thinks that V slowplays sets on the flop somewhat frequently and would shove them for value on the river.

having more information on preflop would be helpful, namely how wide hero is raising here (or just an estimate since OP is V)- super super aggro can mean many things. im also going to go ahead and assume that V doesnt limp/call an 8x raise with 87o/34o
My estimate is he is raising pre with all PP's, all combo of cards T and higher, and all 1/2 gap suited connectors. By super aggro I mean that when he thinks he has the best hand, he bets the **** out of it. Enormous bets.
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04-20-2014 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaredf2691
My estimate is he is raising pre with all PP's, all combo of cards T and higher, and all 1/2 gap suited connectors. By super aggro I mean that when he thinks he has the best hand, he bets the **** out of it. Enormous bets.
I was also thinking about this - I don't think he has many pocket pairs in his pre-flop limp/calling range because I expect him to mostly raise pocket pairs pre.

Ignoring the combinatoric effect, I think he's more likely to have 43o than 66.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 10:26 PM
Brunch: Call the turn and okay a river
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Brunch: Call the turn and okay a river
Auto-correct translation:

Grunch: Call the turn and play a river.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 10:53 PM
I had a hard time wrapping my mind around this reverse hero/villain identity, but whoever has 99 should put a lot of money in the pot expecting to win.
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote
04-20-2014 , 11:04 PM
OP just tell us what you want us to write. You played the straight got it in on the turn..board paired and you want us to say Hero (villain) played it bad???

Ok I agree with you

Not sure the point of this thread
2-5 Possible 5k Turn Set Decision Quote

      
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