2/5 NL $500 max buyin

Villain 1 ($500) Younger kid. I didn't have a ton of reads on him as he was fairly new to the table, but he played pretty straightforward. I don't remember him being in any big pots. He wasn't a regular - your typical rec player. I seriously doubt he's setting up some kind of fancy play.

Villain 2 ($600) Possibly a reg that hasn't been here in a while b/c he's talking to people. Not terribly aggro, but has been raising somewhat frequently in LP so he seems to be somewhat competent. V2 has been complaining about fish making stupid plays or basically anyone playing in a way he doesn't like, which I'm assuming an actual good winning player wouldn't be doing. I think this comes into play in the hand because he looks down on other players (including me) so he's not going to want to call his stack off and look foolish to a "fish."

Hero ($540) I was playing fairly aggressive from late position. I iso-raised a few times and mostly took pots down without showdown. I lost a little back when I got in a 3b pot 3 ways with a big pair but an ace flopped and I folded. For some reason after that hand V2 seems to have decided I'm a bad player, but I don't think he necessarily wants to go after me.

UTG straddles $10
MP1 calls
MP2 calls
Villain 2 (CO) calls
Hero (Button) Q8 calls
SB calls
Villain 1 (BB) calls

It's a little speculative of a call but there were some shorter stacks and raising this bloats the pot and makes it hard for me to cbet and take it down. There were some bad players and I'm confident enough in my postflop play to see a flop. Maybe it's a mistake

Pot~70
Flop: 1084
SB checks, V1 bets $35, MP1/2 fold, Villain 2 calls $35, Hero raises to $150, V1 folds, V2 calls $115 more

V2 thought for a while, muttered to himself and eventually called

Curious what you guys think of this raise. Here's my reads.

I think V1 has SOMETHING to bet into a large field. The board is really wet though, and I think he would bet more with a hand like 2 pair or a set of 4's b/c rec players are terrified of getting flushed b/c they can't fold. There's a good chance he has 10 or something like that.

I think V2 raises 10's preflop and MAYBE 8's. If he had 10-8s or a set I think he raises the flop both for value and to charge the draws. When he calls I think he often has either a ten or some kind of draw.

My 8 could be good some of the time, but I think vs 2 opponents it's less likely to be good. But I have great equity vs really anything but a set and sets are unlikely.

If V1 had shoved back it's kind of sick b/c I think that would be a set almost always. I'd have to do the math. If V2 backraise shoves I think he often has something like the NFD or a combo draw that didn't raise first in that I"m ahead of, so I'd get it in.

When V2 called, I planned to basically shove any turn except maybe a 10. I'd have to think about an ace b/c that gives the NFD top pair. I just don't see him calling OOP with a value hand.

Pot~405
Turn: T846
V2 checks, hero shoves $380?

Not a great card as 97 gets there, but unless he had 97 I don't know if he even calls open ended. I don't think he has a set, and I don't really think he has top 2.

I think a shove folds out basically all 1 pair hands, and if he has a draw I'm actually fine either way. He's getting 2-1 but a hand like KJ has 30% equity. I'm fine with him folding out his equity getting 2-1 or with him getting $400 in when i'm a 2-1 favorite.

I think my line is totally consistent with how random fish play sets which apparently is what villain thinks I am.

Thoughts?

NH, all is perfect, pre is the only questionable play

I don't like Q-high suited, multi-way, for this reason.
But, good Hold'em is about pushing margins, they say.
I think really well played (and reasoned) thereafter.

Are there any turn cards you wouldn't shove?

I really had a tough time trying to figure out the guy's range. If he thinks I'm a fish and thinks I have a set, what is he flatting here? The NFD? What's he going to do - donk shove when the flush comes and expect me to call?

I probably wouldn't shove on any turn card that improved me. If we give him a range on the flop of only Tx (x a J or higher), and big flush draws (AK-AJ, KJ) then he's got 48 combos. On the flop we are ahead of only 4 combos (the flush draws bigger than ours) and are losing to 44.

When the turn bricks, we've got just under 33% equity against this range. If he were to move in you are getting just about break even odds against him. When he checks a blank turn obviously you are shoving to fold out some Tx hands. Even if he only folds the worst of them (JT or QT) the semibluff is still your best play.

When you catch on the turn the situation changes drastically. If you catch an 8 you are now ahead of his entire range and have equity of almost 95%. If you catch a Q you are now only losing to QT and have equity of 80%. If you catch a club you are only losing to his 4 combos of flush draws, and have all the one pair hands drawing dead. Your equity is almost 92%.

His range is heavily weight towards one pair hands, and if you improve you should make more of an effort to keep them in. On the turn the pot is 405 and you have 380 behind. A bet of 200 would deny his FDs the implied odds they need, while having a much greater probability of keeping his one pair hands in. If 200 would fold his Tx hands 100% of the time then you can afford to give even better odds, because his flush draws are such a small part of his range here. Inducing an error from his 44 combos of Tx is much more important than protecting yourself from his 4 combos of draws. A turn bet of 150 offers 3.7-1 odds, has a much better chance of keeping the bulk of his range in the hand, and sets up a river shove of 230 into a pot of 705 for odds of 3.07-1.

Even if he folds Tx some (or most) of the time, you may be better off making the smaller bet. Let's say for a bet of 150 he'll call only with his draws or AT. Let's also assume you are willing to play for stacks on every river card except a T, but he'll only pay you off with AT if he improves to 2 pair.

Let's say you catch an 8 on the turn. If you shove and he folds 100% you win the 405 in the pot. If you bet 150 he'll fold 38 out of 48 combos, or 79.2% He'll call with AT 12.5% of the time and of this .56% he'll spike a T and win, 11.09% he won't improve and you win 555, and .85% he'll catch an A and you stack him. 8.3% of the time he'll call with a flush draw and out of this 7% of the time you'll dodge the flush card and win 555, and 1.3% of the time he'll spike a club and you'll lose 380.

The EV of your 150 bet is thus...

(.792)(405)+(.0056)(-150)+(.1109)(555)+(.0085)(785)+(.07)(555)+(.013)(-380) =
506.29.

Under these conditions a $150 bet when you catch an 8 makes over $100 more than moving in.

It all look pretty sexy to me except for pre-I'm raising with Q8s on the btn almost always pre here(Q8 is actually my favorite hand(i.e. not afraid to 7bet shove with it) and I'd play flop turn and river almost the same way.

Personally I play straddled pots in a very similar way. I usually overcall in LP with my SCs.SGs,big/small suiteds.

I definitely agree that it's going to be very unlikely he has 88 here, but are you sure villain can't flat with 10s? In my games a lot of people won't raise 10s in a straddle (you know villain better then me though).

However given his call/call line I'm thinking he's actually kind of strong here. You said he isn't overly agro, so he might not shove a set here. For whatever reason I've seen plenty of regfish flat sets on drawy boards looking to boat up.

I'm also not sure that top pair calls your raise. In this case top pair is the same suit as the flush draw, so he can't have a pair+fd hand.

Against naked club overs you're in good shape. I'm not sure your Q is always a clean out here though. You potentially give him 97c, but never J9?

He could have top set here, but I think it's unlikely. Putting us in his place, if I had top set here I'm shoving back 100% of the time because I don't think anyone ever makes it $150 and folds. Would we ever not shove if we flatted the flop bet?

I'm ahead of J9cc

totally fine with pre so long as we are comfortable with our reads on the table

turn should be a bit smaller if we decide we want to check back non club turn cards, and bigger if we want to pretty much get stacks in in any turn card, although I would prefer to do this on only 8,9,T,J,Q, or club turns

Like your line and analysis (except im prob folding pre)

I'm shipping any turn

If anyone is interested -

I shipped the turn and he folded.

He was kind of needling/berating me for obviously having a set, so I guess my play worked as I wanted it to.

I'm trying not to do this too much but in nittier games I think I have to set up semi-bluffs if nothing else to give them a little doubt that I have big hands when I raise.

It's probably just me, but I don't limp, like ever. If I'm gonna be involved in a pot, I'm either raising or calling a raise. With Q8 suited though, it's not really a good raising hand as it is ahead of 2 random cards more than 50% of the time, but it's pretty weak. That being said, I'd raise it on my button ($45).

Hand is played fine/standard.