2/5 NL live game, 10 seats.

Been playing for about 3 hours. Imagine is based on very tight play early on, but starting to loosen up with some aggressive plays over the past hour or so. Villain hasn't played many hands at all over these 3 hours......but in the hands he has played, he seems to like to take initiative. Standard live game with loose, passive play from just about everyone else.

Villain is UTG. Hero is in CO.

Villain - $600 behind. Hero - covers

Villain raises to $15 (amount seems strange - kinda light). Anyways, 3 callers before hero. Hero also calls with Ad9d. BB calls. 6 to the flop.

Pot - $90

Flop - 9h, 7d, 5d

Villain leads $50. 3 folds. Hero raises to $150. BB folds. Villain tanks, then calls.

Pot - $390

Turn - 10s

Villain checks. Hero?


Will post hero's turn play, and results after feedback.

Preflop is great, I would have done the same.

Flop, I would have just called. Bad TPTK with NFD, great spot to call behind, yeah there are straight cards, wouldn't worry about pocket 6s or pocket 8s, glad to have them along, worried about 5s, 7s and overpairs.

Turn - Check behind, not a good card to barrel, $150 call says a lot of strength, an 8 picked up another 4 outs for OESD, an overpair hit a set, TPBK hit 2pr, etc. You have 2PTK NFD, use pot control to get to showdown with value the you have at that price or put money in when you hit your diamond. You don't even want to see another 9, an A would be better. 55-JJ are a good size part of his range with that flop call.

You gotta dodge every non-diamond 5-K on the river to feel good about your hand.

I'd just call flop bet. Hard to get better to fold, hard to get value from worse other than 98 and broadway hands with two diamonds. We have the nut top pair, and the nut draw so don't really need to protect.

I'd check turn. If you bet turn you're setting yourself up to get stacks in with a pair of 9s if you don't improve.

Do you think villain will fold an overpair on the turn? It's not a bad barrel card, although not great.

We have 0 showdown value.

He has some, I could see V tank-calling with pocket 6s or 8s and not wanting to lead out again unless he hits the straight without more diamonds. H could look bluffy trying to steal with big diamonds/overcards that haven't hit yet, especially if V has ever seen him do it before.

V holding 88 and turning the unsuited 10 would be a check-call spot. The raise to 150 may get him to the end without any more money going in.

Aggressively raising the flop couples hand equity + fold equity as well. Once you raised I think the turn card is innocent enough to barrel again. If the opponent does not have a fold button, this line may not be optimal.

If you check back and miss the river, I think bluffing will be unsuccessful most of the time given the turn check.

You have range advantage agaisnt V.

If you raise the flop, you have to bet the turn to rep 2p+.

You blocked top set.


If V does not have fold button with over pair, you might just call flop instead of raising.

When you raise flop, you have to figure out your plan on the turn.

I would only choose raise flop line when I have a read that V would fold over pair to pressure.

Not enough info and way too player dependent to determine the most exploitative line here. You seem to insinuate that his open sizing likely allowed him to have a lot more hands than had he opened to 20, 25, with that, I would like to have seen a call IP and then decide from there.

um.

Just flat flop. Despite the um, probably true that in most games you don't want to raise flop unless you're ready to barrel just because people don't fold overpair to just one raise that often. Our hand is also a bit too strong. Should raise with naked nfd instead. Still raising is okay if you think you have a profitable barrel down.

Despite preferring a flat, EV of raising flop barreling turn is probably pretty good and close enough that unquantifiables are more important.

"but in the hands he has played, he seems to like to take initiative"
"Villain raises to $15"
"Villain leads $50"

I see your flop FE to be lower than you do. I call all day and hopefully keep BB in to preserve some drawing odds. If he's sticky because he's taking initiative, you also have some implied odds. Please note that no math was done to make this assessment.

Conclusion:

Hero - Ad9d
Villain - TBD

Pot - $90

Flop - 9h, 7d, 5d

Villain leads $50. 3 folds. Hero raises to $150. BB folds. Villain tanks, then calls.

Pot - $390

Turn - 10s

Villain checks. Hero bets $250.

Villain tanks forever, messes with his chips, looks at the board, looks at me, then eventually counts out $250 an calls (leaving about $200 behind).

Aside - As I was determining how much to bet on the turn, I convinced myself that he was on an overpair, or some kind of wacky pair/straight draw. For whatever reason, I didn't think a set was as likely given the super tank. I thought that by checking back the turn, I wasn't going to get paid on the river if my card hit. And if my card missed, I would be in a very vulnerable position. I felt that $250 was enough to get an overpair to fold, and set up the idea for playing for stacks if I improved.

River - 9s

Villain thinks for about 3-4 seconds, then says all-in. Hero snap calls, but realizes he's made a mistake somewhere in the hand and realizes he's screwed.

Villain - 5d5c and wins the pot ($1,290 or so)


After reading the feedback, it seems like the only other way to play this would have been to call the flop, and reevaluate on the turn. Now, being results oriented, villain would have probably:

A - bet the turn (maybe $140 into a pot of $190). Hero would have probably called (just can't see myself laying down here with middle pair, top kicker, nut draw).
B - after the turn, I presume my thinking would have been that there was a solid likelihood he was ahead, but all 9's, A's, and diamonds were live. And given the size of the pot, there was minimal likelihood he was folding. So, a $140 call probably wins a large pot if my card hits. As such, I'm definitely calling.
C - On the the river, Villain bets at least $300 into a pot of $460. Hero snap calls.

So, overall, I'm thinking that I'm losing at least $500 in that hand. I'm really not sure there was any way around that. Thanks all for the good feedback.

You shouldn't think about how much you would've won or would've lost if you played differently. Sometimes playing a hand the correct way causes you to lose the most. That's how it is. The way you played it is fine.

Agree.

Also, vs his small weird open and 60 in the pot before it gets to us, this is an ideal hand to squeeze to 80. Don't be scared that he is raising small to induce a 3b, that happens far less often than most people fear. Our hand does not play well multiway since we are pretty much only looking to hit a draw or 2 pair+. We also have position and can easily fold to a 4b. We block a bunch of his 4b hands and can force him to fold the best hand on the flop often if he calls. This hand is so easy to play if we 3b but somewhat difficult on all but the best of flops. I like easy.

As played, nice hand, though the stack sizes make this hand kind of tough with the turn bet. I'm never in favor of leaving less than a 1/2 psb for river play so i'd prefer to start with a different plan and line.