2/5 Saturday afternoon. Effective stacks of ~$900.

Villain is late 20s/early 30s, muscular build. Seems to be a semi-regular (I've seen him in the room before and he knew at least one other player at the table). My general reads on him were that he was on the tight side and on the aggressive side (rather than passive/station-y), but neither to the extreme. He had 3-bet maybe 5-6 times total in about 4 hours of play, so not excessive, but not like he never does it either.

We have one hand of history, as follows:

*HISTORY HAND (note: not including hero's hand as I never showed so villain wouldn't have this info)*

Pre-flop: Effective stacks $700. Hero is HJ and makes it $30 with 2 limpers behind. Folds to villain in BB, who makes it $80. Hero calls.

Flop ($170): 853
Villain checks, hero checks.

Turn ($170): 2
Villain bets $115, hero calls

River ($400): J
Villain checks, hero bets $235, villain calls

Hero says "one pair" and villain flips AA and scoops pot.

*HAND IN QUESTION*

Pre-flop: Effective stacks $900. Hero is HJ with 22 and makes it $35 after 4 limpers behind. Folds to villain in BB, who says "35 . . . are you stealing?" and makes it $75. Hero calls.

Flop ($170): J92
Villain bets $125, hero calls.

Turn ($420): 3
Villain bets $300, hero shoves $400 more

Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Thanks.

Pre-flop is a bit steep to pay to set mine, but you have a pair and position, so even though you don't have initiative, you should be able to win sometimes unimproved.

I would raise flop. That board is very wet, and there are a lot of cards that will kill your action. AP, 3d is not one of them, so fine with doing this OTT.

I think pre is fine given immediate odds and effective stacks.

I'm making it $350 that board vs 90% of players, shoving turn. Unless you have a read that he can/may double/triple barrel into you with bare AKo/AQs, raise OTF.

Seems fine as played. Did he fold ott? Your line is fine as I dont think he is b/f ott with $400 left to call to win $1400 with QQ-AA, or AQc, AKc. I would say click it back otf but he would 3bet otf with any of those hands anyway. Sounds like you got good value by flatting otf because if you do raise and he has air or 88/1010, he might flat and give up with a c/f ott without the top of his range instead of double-barrelling you.

Your opponents three-betting range is likely something such as -- { QQ-AA, AK/AQ. Fringe hands being stuff like; 99-JJ, AXs, suited connecters, etc} Considering the 4 limpers and then your raise, I think his range is composed of less of those fringe hands and more of his strongest hands.

So if we take that range into account heading into this board texture. We are stacking and over-pair here a large majority of the time and the board is relatively safe for our hand, as his range doesn't have many draws and he is drawing to 2 outs frequently.

In my opinion the most important aspect of this hand is your opponents perception of your 3bet calling range PF and how that evolves with your flop call of his continuation bet. Our hand range should look very strong with our flop call. So when he bets the turn again, I think it is safe to assume he has a hand that is showdown able and not an Ahigh.

We also consider that he checked AA on a board texture of 853 that isn't too dissimilar from this hands J92 board and the dynamics were similar with PF action. So who knows ?

Raise flop. You're fortunate to not have a turn card that kills your action here.

Yeah, that's like KK+ right there.

Raise the flop. Board is so draw heavy that villain is likely to get it in with any over-pair.

lol

what was table norms for pre flop? i guess with 4 limpers 35 is fine. and since you felt like set mining for 40 more so be it.

with 2 toned board i prob raise flop but since he showed aggression i suppose flat on flop is ok.

and yea, when he leads turn for that much basically auto ship.

I don't hate calling flop, he is very much polarized and we get him committed OTT with overpairs. There is EV in both calling and raising flop, OP played hand fine

I would get used to raising flop in those spots IP so you don't fall into become over-tricky

I would generally raise the flop here when there's a flush draw on board. On a less wet flop it's a standard c/c.

Anyway, you played it fine. If you call flop you need to get paid on blank turn - can't give another cheap card.

I limp behind pre bit everything else is good.

I think that he won't commit on any club, J, 8.. essentially a third of the time on the turn he is c/f'ing, mayyybe b/f'ing small.

I also think he is not b/f'ing QQ-AA 33%+ of the time on this specific flop.

Either way, I do agree with you that both options are +EV, and that its close.