Very interesting spot...
Quote:
- What's his range when he raises to $30?
The minraise makes me think he's quite strong. Imo, the draws are unlikely, I rarelly see a minraise with a draw, people prefer to call or raise bigger. Moreover u hold blockers. I would say his range should look something like TPGK+;
Quote:
- What's his range when he 4!?
His range gets only stronger, maybe something like 2pair+ now and we can almost completely discard the draws now.
Quote:
- Did we play the flop bad? If so, why?
When it comes to playing big draws agressively or passively OTF, I have my little mental checklist (I know it by heart it's very helpful). Here it goes:
1) Outs (the more u have the better it is to play agressively)
2) FE (same as above)
3) Will he make a big bet OTT? (the more it is likely, the better to play agressively from the flop)
4) Will he fold OTT when the draw comes in? (the more likely the better to move in from the flop)
5) Stack sizes (It's better to play agressively when stacks are not very large)
6) Position (having it allow to play more passively)
Let's go point by point in order to get a general idea of the way we should play OTF:
1) We have a lot (14) --> agressive route
2) When he 3! OTF he has a strong range and very few draws so I don't expect him to fold a lot --> passive route
3) Difficult to say, probably yes after his raise OTF --> agressive route
4) Difficult to say given the hand#1 the guy is a bit donky so we can say that he will call a fair amount of the time if he likes his hand --> passive route
5) Stack sizes are quite large --> passive route
6) We are OOP --> agressive route
OK. All this to see that's it's a very difficult decision weither we should play agressively or passively. Both are possible imo.
One thing I am almost sure is that taking a half measure like you did in the hand is not good as it will only leave you in a very difficult spot OTT, OOP, almost commited when you miss your card. So it's either bet-3!-shove or a bet(perhaps check)/call.
You should first decide what route you want to take and play everything accordingly imo.
Quote:
- How do we feel about hitting an A or a 7 on the turn/river? Or the 5 otr?
We should feel great with an A or 7. I just made a little simulation, we have like 85% equity against his range. There are far more random 2pairs than sets (only 3 or 4 sets combos vs. 21 twopair combos) in his range. Same with the 5h.
Quote:
- Do we have implied odds on the turn to justify a call? Will V stack off his last ~$330 if we hit the nuts?
I think that after putting so much money he won't fold often for his last $330, he'll be just commited to call whatever his hand is.
Now let's say you will take his last $330 like only 60% of the time when you hit, so basically you have to pay $250 to take $880 ($680 + 60%*$330) that's 3.5-to-1, you need 22% equity. You have more than that (like 30%) against his range.
So it's a call.