Villain ($800) 40's white guy. Playing really loose and splashy. Limp/calls a ton. Likes to overbet donk flops in limped pots and then often shut down when called. Generally playing loose preflop and calling with draws as well, at least one street.
Hero ($700) Played at the table for about an hour. I picked up a bunch of good hands and raised. Most of them I took down without showdown. I lost a pot to villain where I bet $100 into $160 on the river when my straight/flush draw busted out and he called with 2 pair. So maybe he thinks I'm totally FOS. I have no idea.
Hero (EP) A
MP calls $20
Button calls $20
Villain (BB) calls $20
Villain checks, Hero bets $65, MP/Button fold, Villain calls $65
Villain checks, hero?
This is such a weird spot because I have top set and a 1 card NFD, so even vs a made flush I have like low 30's equity and vs a straight I'm in the 40's. Even if he shoves over a bet I have enough equity to call.
It's pretty hard to figure out what he could possibly have that can call a big bet here though. I suppose QQ/TT might call, but QQ might 3b pre if he thinks I"m FOS. Diamonds just got there, and J9 got there too if he was playing that. Those hands might not raise thinking I'm on a flush, but then again they might.
Is this ever a check back? Since I have so much equity I might as well bet SOMETHING right, even if it's hard for him to call.
What about like a $100 bet to maybe suck a call out of some weird pair+diamond hand?
Final consideration is that he's pretty splashy, so in the off chance he has 2 pair and fills up I'm probably getting the rest of his stack. Does that factor in at all?