Reads: I've played one previous session with this guy, during which he was pretty tight pre flop and seemed pretty TAG post flop. This session, he has once 3-bet 75s against a min raise and flat pre flop. He was in the CO. He turned a flush. The river paired the board, and he checked behind...didnt go for thin value.

He has also 3-bet AKo fairly small when in position against a $15 open.

My image is good, TAG, though I have shown one smallish bluff.

A limper, I raise to $25 with JJ and 4 players left to act excluding the limper. Folds to villain in the SB who makes it $80. The limper folds and I flat. About 350 effective.

Flop: Q106. Villain bets $80 and I flat.

Turn: Q1069. Check/check.

River: Q1069Q. He bets 100 and I call.

Thoughts on any or all streets welcome.

NH

Given your description, it seems like V is a TAG who is capable of identifying decent spots to make moves for small amounts, but gets MUBSY when the amounts get larger (checking behind 75s).

When a 'good TAG' opens to 4x from MP over a limp, this is not going to be the sort of spot which a MUBSY V will consider good to make a move in. Additionally, he 3-bet AKo fairly small earlier, which usually allows us to discount that from his range. He's also OOP here, making him even less likely to be 3-betting us light. Against a tight player's value 3-betting range from the SB, we can just fold pre.

As played, calling flop is marginal, but we have to ship turn since pretty much all of his range has at least 15% equity, and that's even without a diamond in his hand. There is also a non-zero chance that V will fold AA or KK without a to a turn shove here (although this is LLSNL, so it's still a fairly low chance without history). Even when called we have between 6 and 10 outs.

As played, on the river a call is OK, since after he checked behind the flush on the paired board, his value range here should pretty much only be QQ for quads, with a chance of TT (unlikely to 3B pre). From Vs sizing on both the flop and river he doesn't seem to want to commit too much of his stack (despite already being committed), and he doesn't bet thinly for value, so this makes it even more likely he is bluffing (with AK, probably with a diamond.)

Fold everywhere.

Brilliant post, Corto.

Love the idea of shoving turn but the reality is, a little of that goes a long way. Might be worth a whirl against a nit on auto-pilot, but a thinking player has to realize that suited cards are a tiny part of hero's range ott.

Against a thinking player, you need proof positive he can fold big pairs, and an air tight story.

The river call is consistent with the flop call; if you're good on one, you're good on the other. Just boils down to a question of range, and I would agree this type of player probably doesn't have a lot of KT type hands in his range here.

What if stacks are 200+ BB eff?

Guess it still relies on a missing bit of information ie whether villain stacks off with AA but would like to know your thoughts.

Another way to play it would be to bet turn and jam river. Damn this is a sexy hand, I could spew off a bunch of chips here and enjoy doing it.

I'm under the notion that Vil won't 3bet light in this spot and we are set mining basically.

i also disagree that Vil could easily have AA or KK here. Vil checks turn because flush hit cause he plays scared. Once turn gets checked thru he doesn't think OP has a Q so he leads.

A turn shove would be $190 into a $320 pot? I think you saved $90 by calling down instead of shoving.

I could go either way pre-flop against this V, but a fold might be fine. As played I think you have to call the river if you called the flop. I do like the idea of betting the turn the best.

I'd find it hard to fold JJ in position preflop, but he doesn't sound like the type to 3-bet light from the blinds. I'd still probably call to see a flop (stack sizes?). The ~1/2 psb c-bet might just be air, but the Q hits his range, so I probably fold.

From the player description, I think there's a good chance that the turn check is just to pot control and see how strong you are. I don't think you are good on the river, but you are getting ~4:1 to call. A call isn't terrible because of the odds you are getting, but I think you are beat most of the time. If I get a read that the villian might be bluffing, I'd call. Otherwise, I'd probably just fold.

If we have 200+BB stacks then I don't mind a call of in position. But yeah I'd like more info on villain's tendencies to see what other options I might have post flop. I agree in some instances you could rep a flush and bet turn and jam river when he donk bets weak or checks.

Good discussion so far. Here's my info on my thought process:

Preflop, this could be a fold if villain's range is entirely AA-QQ, since set-mining against AA (under the assumption that he stacks off on any flop containing a Jack, which is probably accurate) is almost neutral EV...I got a result of -$.98, and the 1 in 100 chance of the flop coming A J X makes the EV probably around -$6 or so.

But I figured AK and a few light 3-bets are in his range too, in which case I should call. Note that by folding, I allow him to profitably 3-bet any two cards, since I'm opening about 12% of hands pre flop here and JJ is within the top 2.5% of all hands, meaning I'd be folding way over half my range pre if I fold JJ.

Conclusion on pre: against a player who's range is only AA-QQ, its a fold pre flop. I didn't think this matched this player, but that's mostly due to seeing him 3-bet AK and 75 before....maybe in this spot he changes his range to only QQ+?

Flop: Since I did not flat pre with the plan to set-mine, I called since I still beat AK and light 3-bets. Plus the bet is fairly small on a draw heavy board.

Turn: I have showdown value at this point, so why shove? I really doubt he folds AA-KK, even without a diamond, since I have less than a PSB left.

River: I'm getting 4-1 and need to be good 20%, so I called.

This mindset can cost us a lot of money at LLSNL. It's OK to be exploitable if we're exploiting our opponents tendencies/our opponents aren't exploiting us. As I said earlier, this isn't the sort of spot a live TAG is going to choose to light 3-bet, even if he is capable of it.

It's also worth noting that there are spots where we can be so exploitable so as to fold 100% of our value range at LLSNL, simply because our opponents themselves are so exploitable, and refuse to exploit us.

People often say this, but I disagree. In theory yes he could 3 bet you with atc, but it just doesn't happen that often. Also if he were in fact doing this, you can just adjust. I'm not saying I would fold JJ every time, I'm saying I would fold then.

Results: He shows KK to win.

I think this is AA with a diamond or KK with a diamond just about every time from V here. I am not calling river, I don't think it's bad to fold flop either. What are we beating on the river? AK...?

In after results, but still with the same thoughts:

His river bet is for value 100% of the time.
What does he expect you to fold on the river for $100? Nothing...

So disapoint him and fold.

Fold pre as you're not getting enough IO to setmine, and calling the 3-bet just because you thought he might have AK or something marginal because you saw him do it IP with 75s, isn't enough evidence imo to alter my perception much that I have of him being a tight player. It would take a few hands or seeing him being more loose and aggressive in general than the last session.

Most of the time I'm expecting V to have AA, KK, QQ, AKs, possibly AQs & JJ. Maybe AKo. JJ is crushed by 3 of these hands and 3 of them you're even money. Those aren't good enough odds to call pf given the raise amount and stack sizes.