villain: has been playing about a ~75 vpip ~25 pfr, pretty wild lag. this guy is an extreeeeemly aggro lag maniac, has been showing down huge pots with one pairs, Ace highs , etc.. has the table playing way looser than they are used to , calling him down 3 streets with their AK's no pairs , etc, .. however i noticed also when he gets a really good hand like AA/KK/qq etc he 3! huge pre/4!/5! even , and pot pot pots pots .. does not care about the board basically just takes his premo hand and pot pot pot.. he was running really hot for a bit too and was up to almost 1,000bb about , 20 hands earlier, and has spewed down to about 400bb where he is now.

when he doesnt 4! me pre, i am very confident my JJ is the nuts pre. Pretty great flop for us. He leads flop pretty small which is standard , i 3! him positive im good unless he miracle flopped, and he just flats which is another strong indicator that i am good on this flop. If he flopped something like 2pr he is going to raise me allday, knowing that i am repping an overpair and that he has a crazy loose image. I really doubt he had the capacity to bet/flatcall... so he just flats and the turn comes a pretty scary card for my range.

but then he checks the turn. Which i was really happy to see. If he just bombed the turn here t wouldve been a very hard decision.He checks so I just check it back. River blanks.




$2/$5 No Limit Hold'em

Hero (BTN): $1550.00
BB: $1400

Pre Flop: ($7) Hero is BTN with JJ

2 folds, CO raises to $20, Hero raises to $60, 1 fold, BB calls $60, CO folds

Flop: ($122) 6 T 8

BB bets $75, Hero raises to $165, BB calls $90

Turn: ($472) 9
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($472) 5

BB bets $1175 all in, Hero ?

Such a fold

What do you think you can beat here?

LAG or not, 3x pot over shove is not a bluff.

Also, this board is terrible and what could be possibly be bluffing with?

Snap fold.

I probably flat flop deep against a LAG.

updated op with a lot of info on my thoughts . .

There are a million hands he can be value shoving against us, because our range is face up. What bluff can he have? KJ?

I'm not trying to be rude, but this is just a snap fold.

Reminds me of a big 1/3 $1200 pot I played a few nights ago. Guy got married to his hand and straight up told me he narrowed my range to (ONE) specific hand (K-K).... It was such a fold and it cost him an additional 400 since he was blinded by his hand.

id prob prefer 250/call on the turn, but i dont hate checking. id also definitely raise flop bigger against described player, youre ahead really often and hes not folding.

fold riv, he has (and shoves) a million things that beat you and not so much that doesnt.

I don't think it's snap fold. I've played with this type of V before. They're definitely capable of bluffing here. Some Vs just don't give a **** about money. That being said, it's fold on the river as played. He'd have to be bluffing very frequently here to make the call profitable. He's bluffing here sometimes, but not often enough to justify a call.

Short story:

I was playing a $1/2. A guy walks by and the dealer says "That's Tom. He buys in for the maximum and goes all-in blind every hand pre-flop. You should hope Tom sits here". I'm thinking, "Yeah, right. whatever". Tom sits down at our table and shoves in $300 from UTG. WTF? He did it every hand. People were calling him with king high. Some V's literally don't give a **** about the money.

Easy fold...you can find a better spot to get your money in against this villain. Also, not sure why you checked turn though...would've bet in that spot but looks like maybe it saved you some money.

I would not raise the flop vs him. Attempting to play a huge pot with such a marginal hand I would disagree with and I wont raise for information.

Normally Im the guy folding when everyone else is calling. Interesting switch on this hand for me since I will call it off vs him.

If I got here on the river with this large of a pot, we have to win around 29% the time here and if he is the maniac as you say, I think I might have to call here. Too many Tx, 8x 9x hands he could show up (and only God knows what else) with for me to fold.

wondering how did this hand end up...

i would fold... this man is a punisher... probably has you ranged very accurately to what you have which is essentially aces and knows how terrible this board/run out is for you given that he can put this many $ in and make your life tough....

against a guy like this I might just consider a call on the flop but if I raise id rather raise to 220 and fold if he comes over

this is truly awful advice... we are never good here 30% of the time... he knows exactly what we have and does not know whether or not we are capable of folding here... he is much more weighted to value hands that destroy us, the amount of villians at 2/5 bluffing in this spot for this amount of $ is very few... calling here on the river is truly awful, sometimes we get outplayed but this is a definite fold as played

Grunch:

Gotta feel like this is not a good flop for us given that a lot of his range should be 55 - TT given the flat pre and the reads that he would 4bet QQ+.
And if he has any SC's here, this hits his range pretty hard.

Turn seems like the nut worst turn card.
River is pretty blankish and irrelevant.

I'd just fold.

I also wouldn't raise the flop here.

If your reads are right, then this is a snap call. The problem is that you don't believe the reads you posted.

You've read enough of the chat thread to see SABR do this. Take a player who's range is capped (you have an OP and never have a set) and put them to the test on a board where they can have almost anything.

I'd fold the river to punish myself for playing badly on the flop and turn. If he was being called down light and losing, then I'd go back to a snap call.

Grunch: Fold. There's a lot of random 7s in his range, and given your image, he thinks you'll call a FOS line.

plan for river was to call any psb size bet yeah?

i'm interested to know what hands he was spewing with prior to this.

like if he was monkeying around with 0% equity on spew hands trying to put guys to the test then this is call.

Snap fold. Aggro maniac leads OOP and then flats your raise. Most SC that hit this flop, become a combo draw. Looks like to me he's trying to make up for lost value on the turn. This is not the board to pick off a maniac. Also disagree with flop raise. Do you want to be playing a big pot against a guy who will apply lots of pressure when you only have one pair on a wet board?

Dont raise flop. Cant call river now.

... Guy is polarized....

what the hell does him being physically disabled have to do with anything.

u have 2 options imho - call to find out where you are at or fold

Bleh, there are so few hands it makes sense for him to do this with. No way he has a 7 here -- it has to be discounted from his preflop calling range, and shoving that here only gets calls from better (J7/JQ) against most players.

No way he has two pair or a set for the same reasons.

I'm going to take out J7 because of the preflop action, which leaves us with 2-8 combos of JQ depending on whether he calls preflop unsuited or not. We block half of these nutted combos.

I actually don't see him doing this with JQ either though because he wants more value with that. He could be prison raping a 7 or J7, but I think we need to discount the nuts here. A lot of discount. If we give him 2 combos of JQ, can we give him 2 of shenanigans?

Basically nothing adds up. It looks like he wants us to fold. So call. The nuts are so unlikely because of the action and we block them anyway. Maybe if we had aces this would be a fold, but with jacks I think this has to be a call.

Would you mind showing me how calling a >2x pot size river bet needs to be good around 29% of the time?

Flop raise is really bad though.

could you expand on why you think this? given reads this sounds like the type of player that isnt going to fold that we want to pile money in as quickly as possible. not sure that the advantages of calling to allow him to barrel are > the downside of allowing him to realize his equity more cheaply, seeing as how he seems like the type that doesnt have much of a donk/fold range