Hero: Hero is a 1/2 player "taking a shot" by short-buying into the 2/5 game at the local poker club.

Villain: Villian is a thinking 2/5 player who often plays with Hero and discusses hands after the fact with Hero. At *least* a level 3 thinker - Hero and Villian are evenly matched. Villian is a classic TAG, Hero plays more LAG.

---

Effective Stack: $500, Hero
Hero has 87

Blinds post 2, 5, Folds to Hero in HJ, Hero raises to $20. Fold, Villain on Button 3-bets to $45, blinds fold, Hero calls $25.

Pot: $97. Flop: KQT

Hero bets $50 (as a bluff), Villian calls $50.

Pot: $197. Turn: KQT3

Hero checks. Villain checks.

Pot: $197. River: KQT3A

Hero bets $100 (as a bluff)

Pre is good.

Very easy check-fold otf. I don't think you can ever lead this flop, but when you do there is no reason to choose a hand with zero pot equity.

AP V should have a lot more calls+raises than folds.

Pre is fine.

Flop is terrible for you. V has straights, sets, two pair, pair + draw and TPTK easily in his range. Flop should be a check-fold.

I guess river is a good card to bluff and you obviously have zero showdown value, but I'm not sure what story you're trying to tell. Why would you lead flop with Jx or a club draw? What hands at all would you lead flop, check turn, lead river after calling a PFR in a 3-bet pot. KJ? Just doesn't make a lot of sense. River makes a lot of two pair for V as well. So, I neither hate nor love the river bet. Unlike most bluffs, the better V is, the more likely he is to call because you're not really representing anything. An OK player will see that the board got scary and maybe let go of two pair. A bad player won't see past his own hand and will call you with two pair.

Leading the flop is really bad spew.

If I were villain I wouldn't expect Jx ever. KJ/QJ/JT probably all x/c flop. AJ/J9 have no reason to slow down on the turn. If you have value you most likely have a flush, but the board blocks most of the flushes combos that would be reasonable. At the same time it's weird for you to donk the flop and show up with complete air here, but for the somewhat cheap price I'd look you up with AK/AQ.

Thank you for those parentheses. Wasn't sure if you were value betting or not. Every street is just clicking random buttons.

In general, I think when a TAG 3bets a LAG with obnoxiously low pricing in position, he's trying to squeeze max value out of you with the top of his range, ~AA 85%, KK 10%, QQ 4%, AK & other 1% at best. I think anything of value that we donk the flop with would also barrel as well. Our 2pairs, sets, even some draws would likely continue going mostly for value & some FE w/draws. I think bluffing this board would entail 2 or 3 barrels OOP, meaning it's a bad spot to bluff as aManwithaplan pointed out.

Also, when buying in short might be best to play tight. Even at 100bb we often don't have much room to maneuver, so if I did see the flop with this, I'd likely only want to continue on boards that give us the most equity possible. This might even be a fold pre considering we're barely getting 20:1 implied odds and are OOP.

Having said all that... that's a pretty sexy river to bluff. I'd go $135+.

Must agree with previous answers. Pre is just fine. You said yourself he is TAG. His 3 bet pre is much narrower if that is the case. This flop was all over his range. Easy c/f to me. Your lead to me could mean draw but could also say KT, K9 suited since you are LAG. Could even be QT, Q9 suited. Again I say c/f flop.

Some thoughts:

c/f flop is probably the right line.

I don't love pre. I like the raise, but I'm folding this to the TAG 3b most of the time. If V is getting out of line, I'll defend by tightening up on my raises and 4b more often.

Yeah, he should have a strong range here (since he's the TAG), but he might well be adjusting to our LAGishness and loosening up. That hurts our implied odds if we do hit.

In theory, of course, if he's wider it'll be easier to move him of his hand sometimes. But we're at an information disadvantage on every street, so he has the advantage in the bluffing game.

Put another way, we don't have a skill advantage, we have a positional disadvantage, and his hand is almost certainly stronger than ours. I don't like getting involved in hands where we we don't have a single advantage. What's our plan for making money? Outflop him and have him pay us off?

With his position and skill parity, he's going to be able to minimize the value of our decent draws (OESDs and FDs). When we get smacked by the flop (big combo draws and 2P+), we're in good shape, but that doesn't happen often.


AP, I think donking the flop and checking the turn is a bad combo. If we're donking the flop to rep having hit it, why are we checking a brick on a wet board OTT? I think V is likely to call the flop with with some combinations of floats, marginal draws, and strong hands -- i.e. we're getting few folds.

Donking the flop and the turn would be better. At least we're telling a consistent story and can fold out his floats and marginal draws.

x/f the flop is I think best of all. This flop hits a 3b range much harder than a r/c range.

OTR, V called the flop and checked the turn back. He wasn't floating the flop 'cause he didn't fire OTT, so he called the flop with something. He didn't bet the turn, so he doesn't have a monster. So he's got a SDV hand and wants to show it down.

We're giving him 3:1 odds on a call and he's invited a bluff by checking the turn back. The river is a sick card from his perspective (probably), but he's still pretty likely to grit his teeth and call IMO. My best guess is that the river bluff is right around breakeven, maybe a tiny bit better.

So, IMO:
r/f pre
x/f flop
if we bet flop, also bet turn
AP, b or x/f river about the same EV

The only good street is pre. Obviously you're going to open this hand, and you can't fold to a min3bet. Flop smashes his range and you lead for? some? reason?

stop trying to win every hand