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2/5 hand 2/5 hand

04-05-2017 , 05:39 AM
We're 6 handed, no real info on villain, as I've only recently sat down. Hero gets dealt AK OTB, raise to $15, villain calls in BB. We both have about $500 in front of us.

Flop 653 [Pot $32] , check c-bet $15, villain calls.

Turn A-653 [Pot $62] Check I bet $30, villain CR to $75, I call.

River A-A-653 [Pot $212] Villain goes all in for ~$400.

What's the play here? What's our call/fold range on river?
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04-05-2017 , 08:10 AM
Make your read and go with it. Villain should put AX in your range and his over bet is very strong. Villain can also value bet worse AX and might even bluff if he doesn't think you have it.

Without knowing anything about villain this is a tough situation. Depending on villain this could be anything from an easy call to trivial fold. In general favor fold against the over bet shove on the river, you have to be right a lot for it to be really profitable and villain's betting pattern suggests a full house/straight that is hoping you can't fold trips.
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04-05-2017 , 10:12 AM
Generally speaking you're not going to make money calling 2x pot overbets with a hand way short of the nuts. Against a lot of villains, I would even consider folding the turn (but not without a read, so I like your call here).

His small check/raise on the turn suggests he has 2-pair plus. Because the raise is so small, it doesn't make sense as a semi-bluff with a flush draw. And it's hard for him to call your flop bet out of position with a naked ace.

So I like a fold on the river. And given the way this hand played out, I would probably fold my straights here, and even threes full (although I'm probably 3betting both of those hands on the turn). But I would really want a read here. Is this someone who would call $15 from the BB with A6o and A5o (since he can't have A6s or A5s)? What did he look like? Old man? Young kid in a hoodie?
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04-05-2017 , 10:17 AM
the hh is not very clear. Was it folded to you preflop, or were there any limps? If it was folded to you I can see 24s, 46s or even 47s defending a blinds steal.

As played fold the river. If it's not a f/u it's a straight.
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04-05-2017 , 10:21 AM
I'm folding this river all day long.

From the villain's perspective, he CR you when A came on the turn and you called. You either have something like a flush draw or possibly straight draw, but more likely, you have an Ace.

The last Ace on the river is the perfect card for him to overshove with a boat. Of course, if he has 66/55/33, he's taking a chance you don't have AX for the higher boat.

On the river, I'm calling down with A6, A5, 66. 55 is on the border, but probably call. 33 would lead to a severe tank, but probably a fold.
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04-05-2017 , 12:39 PM
You've said nothing about villain. Or hero. There's no way anybody here can say here can say what this river overbet means. If it's your first hand and you know absolutely nothing about V's tendencies and he knows nothing about yours, it's an easy fold.
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04-05-2017 , 01:28 PM
maybe this is bad but I would check back turn here:
- if he didn't have 2p on the flop, the A is the most likely card to give him 2p
- we can't expect 2 more streets from 6x/5x/88 type hands
- when we bet our hand looks like AJ/AQ/AK
- villain is just as likely (if not more likely) to have all the 2p/sets/straights here
- we might induce river bluffs from hands that would fold the turn

AP: it's close, but I think turn is a fold: baluga theorem.

river is definitely a fold.
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04-05-2017 , 01:44 PM
I'd check flop and delay cbet the turn if he checks again regardless of blank or hitting us. This gives us way more info than cbetting

Or you could bet flop/check turn/bluff catch river

Basically we're not getting 3 streets here from many hands we beat so I'm not looking to force the issue.

AP river I sigh fold. If he's bluffing, good job on bluffing an unknown off of trips, half the player pool would snap call
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04-05-2017 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
You've said nothing about villain. Or hero. There's no way anybody here can say here can say what this river overbet means. If it's your first hand and you know absolutely nothing about V's tendencies and he knows nothing about yours, it's an easy fold.
I literally just sat down, played a couple of hands. No real info, if I had any I would have mentioned it.
Guys seems like a reg though definitely capable of bluffing. I don't think he overbet shoves a straight here ever.

In retrospective I immediately realized I should have checked the turn when I get check raised. I just wanted to get some value from 1-pair hands that might peal one more but will give up on most rivers unimproved.

Results:
Spoiler:
Appreciate the advice. I did call, and he had the ole' A5o.
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