Villain hasn't been at the table long. 20s or 30s white guy with glasses. I've played with him before though, and he seems "bad" in the sense that many 1/2 players are bad - like he kinda sorta half gets "it", and he wants to play well, but probably has a lot of very fundamental flaws in his thinking that might cause him to do very weird things.

Hero covers table, and is probably viewed by villain as a strong aggressive player.

Villain starts with $790.

The hand...
Preflop: Villain limps in EP/MP, HJ limps, hero raises 9T $25 in CO. BB calls. Villain calls. HJ calls.

Flop ($100 - 4way):
39T (hero flops top two)
BB checks. Villain bets $40. HJ calls (he's a bad player and could have something like 73o here). Hero raises to $115. Villain calls quickly. HJ folds.

Turn ($370 - heads up):
3
Villain checks (with a stack of about $650 remaining). Hero bets $195 assuming villain will give up most of his draws on a paired board. Villain thinks for like 10 seconds and min-raises $200 on top, and has another $250 behind. Hero?

This is always value from villain right? I see JJ QQ here or a 99 TT even though that's only 8 combos.

14 combos rather

Why such a small flop raise? Pot is 220 with your call and you put 95 on top with a decidedly moist board.

I think turn action shows either a bluff or something nuttish, so your hand is now only a bluff catcher. I would expect most hands you beat to either lead out or x/c. After all, you could be the one with TT+ (or even 99) after your LP raise.

While this could be a bluff, it's pot committing so we'll win 200 or lose 450. I think this is a bluff sufficiently infrequently that I'm laying it down. If we did continue, I'd expect a river shove and then the chance to congratulate him on his very pretty hand.

Villain's line (limp/call prep, weak lead on the flop and calling a raise, check/raise turn) makes no sense. Maybe a very strangely played JJ or QQ? Sets seem unlikely as we have blockers to the 99 and 1010, and he would have had to turn quad 33's otherwise.

His story isn't adding up. Maybe this is just a case where I level myself into thinking that, but I'm going to jam here.

Re: raise sizing... Yes, it was small. Only 75 on top. I wasn't really concerned about V2 as he has a bunch of zero outers in his range, and didn't mind him sticking around so I could bomb the turn on a brick. As to V1 leading out - my impression at the time is he was most likely doing this with a ten, and wasn't so concerned about him drawing to a 3 outer... Yes, there are a lot of action killing turns, but I was really just trying to take a line that had the best chance of massaging in both villains' money.

Fair enough (and thanks for correction). I think (but can't prove) that raising more is better here. Presumably we don't mind stacking off here on reasonable runouts so we're not pot controlling and there are flush and OESDs from which we can extract value (before the river). Also, will they call 115 with their junk but fold to, say, 150? Or, looked at the other way, there are a number of turns and rivers that will put us in an awkward position; getting more money in on the flop tends to mitigate any mistakes that awkwardness causes.

What a bizarre line. Having trouble putting him on a hand.

Your flop raise is way too small, which complicates things. Like, can villain actually have a three here? I gotta assume he doesn't lead/call with a 3. Could he have T3s or 93s pre?

I'm getting it in. This line is usually the nuts, that would be fine if I could come up with a single plausible hand for villain, but I can't. I can't see him having JJ+ pre. TT or 99 even if he limped he'd probably threebet flop given the drawish board and the third player in the pot, plus we have serious blockers to those hands. I can't see him leading and calling a raise with a bare three.

My guess is he has a strong draw, thinks you have an overpair and that he can represent the 3 or something. If he does have a better hand I'll guess that it's JJ.

Due to suit distributions he can't have btm pair+FD turned trips. We block 2/3 sets and the turn blocks the other. So 1 combo each set and quads. I almost want to discount that given the pacing of his call of our flop raise but let's give him 2 combos A3s that donk/peeled. So 5 combos we loose to.

There are more flush draws and straight draws than nutted hands in villains range. He's got 8 oesd combos 2 of which are combo draws. We don't have a nut flush blocker so all the nut flush combos are in play.

The concerning thing is simply his willingness to min raise us after we raise the flop. It would be suicide as a bluff. But unless he's generally a passive who rarely semibluffs you can't fold here imo.

I'd just Gii now and hope to hold vs his draws or bink against 4 of the 5 combos we are behind should he have one of those.

Edit: agree limped jj certainly possible.


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I've been in many discussions on here about flop bet sizing. It's a part of my game that I've altered many times.

What I think I've learned is that going bigger tends to work in favor of a TAG's range. However, I'm a bit on the laggy side, and for my game as a whole, I just think that things tend to go more right for me when I dial down my flop sizing in general. Basically it seems to create a game dynamic that works more in my favor when I'm playing very long sessions with a mostly static group of villains... But maybe I am losing value in spots like this.

If you had pocket kings in this spot would you have pfr'ed $30+? I'm just wondering if they might perceive any bet sizing tells.

Your flop raise is giving an immediate 4:1 to the first bet-caller. That seems minuscule and makes your hand look a bit like a scared over pair which is close enough to what you have that I think you have to charge more than 4:1.

I might be putting too much emphasis on bet sizes here.

I don't think we can give valid advice regarding the turn cr without knowing his tendencies. If he doesn't get it and can do things that don't make much sense then he can show up with anything here.

To me, if feels a bit like JJ or QQ. Of course, it should be a boat as he is not charging any draws.

The only hands that beat us that this line really makes sense with are boats/quads. And that's such a narrow range to have especially given the blockers.

It wouldn't shock me if villain turned up with JJ or QQ, but if so, he has played it horribly. If we are repping an overpair, what does villain accomplish by check/raising turn with JJ? He would effectively be turning his hand into a bluff if he thinks we have a hand like KK, and if we have air, why fold us out?

If I have JJ here, I would check/call. I see zero reason to check/raise for a good portion of my stack.

fold. overpair or set ehre a lot. JJ anyone?

I dunno, I'm kinda lost. Can't figure out if this is an LOL bluff attempt by a FD because he thinks "Hero can never have a 3 here", turning an OP into a terrible bluff (which is now an inadvertent value raise), or some boat combo that's trying to milk H OTT.

Generally in spots like this where I can't credibly put V on a better hand and all the set combos are blocked by one means or another, I go ahead and GII. For some reason I just feel like I'd fold here. I'm completely miffed though as Vs line isn't consistent with any hand he could have in his range.

At 1/3 this just seems like such a nutted play by villain. It really makes no sense.


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I think all of you will like the results...

Haha. High level poker ITT.

Hah! Ok so the question here then is although you won this pot, in the long run is it better to just fold this spot?


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X/r/f with JJ is so bad lol

The lesson, which we all have to relearn periodically, is that check/minraise is ALWAYS a good made hand even when it seems like it can't possibly be.

Right. Especially on the turn... But if he's doing this with JJ, could he possibly be doing it with AT too?

And is fold or raise better, given that?


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I love the thought process in this hand.

Villain: Hurrrrrrr RAISE
Hero: Well he can't be doing this with JJ, he could only expect to get action from better hands, so I'm... allin?
Villain: Oh noes, having done this with JJ I can only possibly have got action from better hands. I fold.

Nah. Overpairs are psychologically different. And it is actually a better hand - he beats T9 instead of losing to it and beats AT instead of chopping with it.

What this is I guess is that he's conscious of the fact that he's underrepped JJ earlier in the hand.