2/5 Sunday afternoon game at borgata. Effective stacks 1500

V - 30 yo Asian male. Reasonably active. Hasn't shown down any big bluffs in a couple of hours. Has 3-bet H several times and H has folded each time.

H - 35 yo white male. Winning today. Pretty active and just win a big pot after turning a gut shot.

3 limps to H in the cutoff with KcKs. H raises to $35. V cold calls in BB. 3 more callers.

Flop (175) - 764 r. V leads $100. H calls.
Turn (375) - 4 completing rainbow. V leads $200. H calls.
River (775) - 7, making board 77644. V bets $500. Hero?

Thoughts on all streets welcome. Hand seemed pretty straightforward to me until turn.

Wow really tough.. guess I call

tough spot man

River is gonna need some live tells or some deep thinking probably gonna get clock called haha.

One thing I think we can maybe do different is maybe raising flop since I highly doubt Villain will turn 88 into a bluff.

Im really interested in what people think about river, maybe this is an easy hand I'm not seeing.

Gun to my head I'm making a nitty fold here.

Fold

My thoughts:

1. Not sure what V is donking here into 4 people. If I were V I'd donk with top two + here, but most V's don't donk with a nutted range. Weak overpairs make a lot of sense, maybe something like a pair + OESD, like 75, 55 65 and 54? 7x makes some sense too, because people like to donk with top pair, but 7x is about as weak a top pair hand as someone could have on a flop so I discount it some. 76 makes a lot of sense. Sets or straights make sense if he donks out hands that strong, though most people would check raise or wait until turn to make their move. Note also I've been aggressive, so V should be expecting me to c-bet a lot (though in reality I would not c-bet air 5 way on this board).
2. Turn is not a good card for V if he has 76, because now my overpairs are ahead. He continues to lead, so now I have him on something like overpairs, nutted hands like sets (though only 1 combo of 44 is available now), some 76/7x and whatever bluffs he decides to barrel.
3. River sizing is super polarizing, in my mind this is not a thin value bet any more. Seems like he either has a boat or a bluff. 7x got there, but 77 is now less likely.

Yep, usually I act quickly but I took a minute or two here. No one called clock though. When I call turn here I'm usually snap calling river, but the 7 on the river definitely changes things.

Such a tough spot! You said hasn't showed any bluffs so I'd probably just fold.

My thoughts process:

Pre:
V didn't call too loose because he was first caller to 7x open but with three limps pot odds are good.

Flop:
V leading here makes me feel 44-QQ, 89-9Ts or JT-AK leading because is a raggy flop.

Turn:
Eliminates 44 from the range, probably JT-AK too.
With a scare card the half pot bet could be a semi-bluff, he's got 77-66 or still a gutter.

River:
A 7 or a 4 is a kicker at this point, but I can't imagine a 7x open playable hand w/ 3 to act that would use those kickers. You're either crushed or he's got an A or weaker pocket and thinks at worst he's splitting.

Just my two cents.


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Your range is heavily weighted towards overpairs so i think villain can have a straight here too sometimes. But he bet a larger fraction of pot otr so seems like 76 or 75. Although preflop makes 88-JJ more likely. These would not bet river for value, but it wouldnt be a terrible play for him to bluff river with these hands. I think thats about all we beat: 88-JJ that is now bluffing otr. I would fold

Thoughts: V should know you most likely have an overpair. Generally it's a bit crazy to try to get people to fold overpairs, therefore people don't try to pull off river bluffs that often. Sure this is a great board to bluff, and a good thinking player might even do this with 99, but I think I'm going to usually just let this go.

Spots like this feel like V is going to be balanced more often than normal for such a big bet. So the other option is just to balance your calling frequency. Note that if you fold more than 40% of the time, V could be owning you in this spot. But you've gotta make sure that at least like a third of V's range getting here could be used as bluffs. Anyway you could approximate that V actually made a PSB and just call 50% of the time (maybe flip a quarter, or call if there is not a predetermined suit in your hand). Or you could be looking at your range and call with the top half. Like if you play TT/JJ/QQ/AA exactly the same, then call with KK, but fold TT-QQ.

:Grunch:


Pre: Looks fine our end. Is V positionally aware? If this is a solid, winning player I think that 99+ unlikely given the lack of 3!. The cold call would seem to indicate that he wants to play a large multiway pot. Right now i'd put his range at 22-99, 54s+, A2s+, JTo-KQo.

Flop: Again, I don't think donking this flop into four as a semibluff is something a smart player is likely to do. At least not with a lone, naked draw. I think he’s unlikely to hold 89s, 9Ts, A5s. Did we give any thoughts to raising this bet? I think it might have given us a better handle on the hand. Right now I’d put his range at: 55,88, A7s, A6s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 56s, 64s, 86s, 75s, Less likely would be 85s, 35s, 74s, 44,66,77, 99+,

Turn: This is obviously a good card for you as 76s just got counterfeited, but I don’t think that changes V’s action. I can’t think of any of the hands in his flop range that you beat that he wouldn’t fire that second bullet with given the turn card, especially since you flatted the flop. Same range of 55,88, A7s, A6s, 97s, 87s, 76s, 56s, 64s, 86s, 75s, Less likely would be 85s, 35s, 74s, 44,66,77, 99+,

River: V’s bet seems pretty polarized at this point. He’s either got air, or is nutted. I think we’re far passed the point of thin value bets. If his range is, 85s, 75s, 64s, 35s, 44,66,77,99+ or complete air. You’re getting 2.5-1 so I probably call this, but it’s a sick sick spot.


Very curious to see results.

he donked out otf into 5 players. He's prob not doing this with just a 7, I would think he either has 2p or a set for him to donk out, could he flat aces knowing hero folds to all his 3bets? I don't think it's out of the question.

I think it's a fold when he bets 500 into 775 otr on a double paired board though. He should know by now hero has an OP.

Is this cus hes just running over people?

Feels like hes got more bluffs here. Hes gotten you to fold before and probably thinks youre soft. Nice wet board for him to get you off your over pair, info is expensive.

I feel like you should know more about his BB flat call range here after playing with him for a few hours.

To answer some questions above:

I considered raising flop but thought I'd be setting myself up to stack off 1500 deep with just one pair so thought better of it. I'd have been more likely to raise if there were a caller or two of V's donk.
I don't have a great read on V's range out of the blinds. He had sat down 2 hours before so hadn't played that many blinds but I probably should have a better read. He's won several pots without showing and 3-bet me several times, which together with population read (he's a youngish Asian male) made me believe he was capable of bluffing. He doubled up right after sitting down having turned a king high flush in a hand he played straightforwardly, calling until he hit then betting. That was the only big hand he played.

Results:

Thanks for posting this, as I was just about to bump for results. I'm not sure I agree with the way V played any of the streets.

If V checks the turn, what is H's action?

I'm probably checking behind turn and snap-calling a river bet from V, or betting river if V checks river too. This deep I'm not sure I want to get three streets of value with an overpair on a board that doesn't allow for a lot of good top pair type hands, but smacks V's set-mining range.

What hands in our range are we calling with in this spot? Are we raising A7s,87s,76s,77,66 over multiple limpers? If not the only better hand we have is AA.

I may raise those hands sometimes, but probably not on the button over multiple limpers. In my mind those are all great speculative hands to limp behind and play multi-way for implied odds on the button. I'd sometimes raise them in an unopened pot or over one limpers (or maybe, but probably not, two), but not over three limpers.

Agreed I'm actually capped here at AA. Not sure if V knows this or not. I've been active generally so unless he's thinking deeply about how I react to multiple limpers ahead of me, he may not realize that I'm never raising a 7 here. Hard to say.

It's interesting because AA-JJ or so are basically the same hand for H here, on the theory that V would 3-bet QQ+. Pocket pairs worse than JJ are a bit different because it's becomes more likely that V has a better overpair at some point. It's also the case that the bigger pocket pairs, especially AA but also KK, are easier to call down with on flop or turn rather than folding or river, because it's less likely an overcard will hit. If I had JJ I'd be more likely to raise flop to avoid an A, K or Q landing on turn or river, and I'd also be more likely to fold at some point because it's harder for me to have a good board to call down on.