literally cannot think of one reason why this should be mind-blowing. Can you explain?

if there's one thing live poker has taught me, it's to always keep JJ in every fishy reg's range in every hand always.

but i still dont think he has a boat. probably a weak ace he wants to see showdown cheaply with. jam is prob fine but i wait for better spots usually.

[QUOTE=timmay28;33824070]Villain has $400, I cover. He is a mid 30's white guy and one of those fishy regs that isn't god awful but has to be a losing player as he limp/calls too much and is a bit of a station. Generally will let you know when he has a big hand postflop, otherwise just calls with marginal holdings. QUOTE]


Villain likely holds AX and will call you down too often to shove.

Just check behind...and check the turn

[QUOTE=miamicheats;33918373]sure- he calls down lots, but "calling down" isn't quite the same as calling of his remaining $250ish out of a $400ish stack, is it?

Its less than a PSB. Villain has to fold ~47% of the time assuming we have 0 equity when called. I dont think you win often enough to warrant this play. Dont compund the turn error

the whole reason LLSNL is so profitable is becasue ppl dont fold. stop trying to bluff so damn much and just ch turn and river or at least ch this river and give up. PEOPLE DONT FOLD

Villain has to fold 50% of the time for this to be a +EV play.

I think in this situation villain is extremely likely to fold to a shove and the percentage that he does so is way over 50%, probably close to 100%... so bluffing is +EV, therefor the correct play.

It's thinking like yours... "villains are all calling stations we should never bluff, just play good hands and value-bet all day" ...that is likely why you are stuck at playing 1/2 and 2/5. You gotta get creative, think outside the box, and don't be afraid to make high-risk plays that show a positive expectation in the long run.

This. I think if you shove V says "well I don't have the boat, looks like you have the K...I call!" and shows Ax.

This same thing happened to me in a big pot, guy said "looks like you have two pair, I call.", he had J7 for middle pair and I had barreled all streets, shoved river.

Im interested in your range for the villain that will call and what will fold. I dont have access to poker stove at work.

I think you will be hard pressed to find 47%-50% that fold this river.

#1 you know nothing about why I play the limits I do and how well/bad I do at them.

#2 go reread the description of villain and tell me why you think he's going to fold wayyyy over 50% of the time given the information OP has lent us. These types of villains as described should be strictly value bet value bet value bet type lines. No need to "get creative and think outside the box here" if that's the case then just bet bet overbet shove every pot.

turn bet is lighting money on fire

agree... repping hands vs stations is obviously lolbad, was pretty tired and somewhat on winner's tilt at the time

Easy bet there.