Quote:
Originally Posted by jambre
This is close to irrelevant maths as people aren't continuing on the flop with all their preflop holdings. The fact that he's been called in 3 spots narrows their ranges (which includes a decent chunk of QJ).
Fair point. The a priori estimate has to be modified by the subsequent action, which clearly raises the likelihood of QJ being present. My argument is not a good way to support the thesis that we're not "expecting" QJ.
I should have said there are only 16 combos of QJ, against flush draw combos (~25), TP (combos 50+ depending on how wide V's call), perhaps some T's (esp with additional features), perhaps some gutshots, I've seen calls with PP's lower than T here on occasion.
LLSNL V's have very wide limping ranges and wide calling ranges for small absolute bets on the flop. The wider the ranges the less likely any particular hand is actually present.
