You can discount all sets otf. The only question now is: does he have QJ? I would snap call him TBH. I don't think he would be dumb enough to let you off the hook with QJ. But of course I could be wrong.

What's with people saying JJ is likely here?? If villain seems like he's competent, how is he getting value from anything on the river if he's not betting? Other than 22/33, pretty much eveything else is checking, making JJ much less likely. And if he's a spewy tourney player, same thing. He's betting OTR way more than checking iyam.

Imo, this looks more like AJs/o, QJs/o, or 33. If he's a spewy tourney guy, he's 3betting QQ+ like 80%+ OOP against 4 callers. And if he's competent, he's doing the same thing (maybe not as often, but often enough to make it a smaller portion of his range).


That being said, call all day. Coolers suck, but they happen.

If I had to use my "white magic" Villain has exactly KJ.

I think 'mpethy' & 'monkeymaps' posed the relevant question, is the villain's intent with the check raise and the speech to fold out a jack?

I think it is a fold because your under-set/full house is losing to everything but trip JJJ's. It is easy for me to say this now, when not in the heat of battle and thinking, 'I can't fold my boat, can I?'.

Results:

Hero says "I'm not good enough to fold this, I call."

Villain says "Sorry dude I got you" and shows J8s. Villain is completely shocked that he could be beat even when called, which was seriously bizarre, and keeps saying how he was 100% sure he was ahead somehow. So he really was trying to get me to call, although he had no idea of the relative strength of his hand.

This hand really got me thinking though, the guy is clearly horrid if he thought that J8 was like a nut hand here for value.

But suppose villain isn't terribad - the line really does look like AJ minimum to me here. I guess I probably can't fold at the table b/c I can't be sure 2/5 randoms aren't horrible. But if I recognized this guy as a good, thinking player I think I really only beat bluffs given this line.

Lol @ J8 giving that speech. NH, but bet mote on the turn next time.

GRUNCH,
if you want to under rep your hand and then fold your full house just because an unknown shoves then you will not make nearly as much money as you should at the pokerz. Some old famous player once said that if we don't get all our money in with our sets then we are doing something wrong.

IMO this speech seems very much like the Jamie Gold "Just fold, you don't want to bust here and go home... blah blah" when they are bluffing and trying to seem very strong. It could also be the speech for strength, but it's one of those level things that is a wash, I would rely on how he is saying this and what his body language seems like instead of the fact that he is just giving a mantra speech.

I like the smooth call on the flop, but hate the bet on turn. I personally ALWAYS want to try to get V's stack at some point when I have a set then boat on a board that isn't flushing/straightening. So I will ALWAYS make a raise or bet on turn that sets up a shove on river.

With no reads on V this could literally be ANY J that is shoving since we look so weak by betting small and not raising flop - because in his mind "AJ+ would have to raise me bro.". It could also be air 10+% of the time if he is a tourny donk who is used to having to bluff all in.

I'm never folding my full house here without some really good reads or history that V is a super nit that never goes all in without bigger boats. It seems like a lot of 2+2ers are giving LLSNL players a lot of credit for only having big hands when they raise, only the nits never bluff, even fish want to show how they went all in with 72!

Against a decent non-maniac player, it is a fold. That line does not make any sense for AJ, or any hand that you have beat. 33 is the most likely, assuming he put you on a jack. JQ is likely too. But against an unknown, I guess you should be good 25% to make this call. Some people just do some stupid ****.

lol what a hand

cliffs: stop being a nit OP

Ok sure.

I guess the reason I posted the hand is that the guy obviously thought he had the nuts there. If he's not terribad a hand he thinks is the nuts > deuces full on that board.

I get into these really weird live spots where I think with a little bit of analysis I can make better decisions than random players (hopefully).

tourney guys usually think tptk is the nuts so sort of makes sense in context lol

I wouldn't get too caught up trying to figure out the most optimal way to play a hand like this. Situations like this don't come up very often.

Moral of the story - Some players have absolutley no concept of relative hand strength and over plays their hands.