2/4 blinds, Villain is somewhat good REG, semiTAG

7-handed table, 140bb effective

V - MP - Open 4bb
H - CO - 3bet 10bb A K
V - MP - calls

FLOP: A Q 9
(pot 22bb)

V - MP - check
H - CO - cbet 12bb
V - MP - call

TURN: 3
(pot 46bb)

V - MP - check
H - CO - cbet 29bb
V - MP - Allin
H - 90bb to call

H -

What do you do here in vacum?

This deep, I'd three-bet bigger pre. I go at least pot, which is 10BB with your call, so I'd make the raise another 10, or 14BB total. Could make it as small as 12, but 10 is a bit too small, imo.

AP, the SPR is just under 6-1 on the flop. I'd be looking to commit there, and would bet more than just over half-pot with that in mind, especially on the somewhat wet board.

AP to turn, bleah. Board is wet enough that you really have to bet, but once you get c/r you've got over 1/3 of your stack in the pot and hate life either way. There should be few semi-bluffs in his range, as they would likely c/r OTF when his FE is better, so I think you're looking at mostly AQ and sets, with some air taking advantage of stack sizes, and a few delayed semi-bluffs. Would he turn AK into a bluff here to try to get you off a chop?

Since the raise is just under pot, you need to be good just under 1/3 of the time. This is really Villain dependent. Against an average passive rec player, I fold pretty easily. Against a LAG, I call pretty easily. Against a "somewhat good REG, semiTAG," I probably fold. Bigger bets earlier make this situation much easier and more profitable over time though, imo.

Grunch.

I'd instamuck.

Short version of reasoning is decent TAGs rarely stack off 100bb+ with less than TPTK and rarely run big bluffs for all their chips into opponents that have consistently shown strength all through the hand (3b pre, bet flop, bet turn).

In longer form...

The preflop 3b was on the small side (I'd have made it 12bb), so V only had to call 6bb in a ~15bb pot. I think his range is something like 99 - QQ, AK, suited aces from AQs down to say, ATs. He might call with AQo. Fudge factor always applies, so some chance he shows up with something completely unexpected.

OTF, if he calls with pre AQo, a third of his range could be 2P+. If he doesn't call with AQo, it's less, maybe only up to 25%.

OTT, I think the chances that this is a bluff are 10% or less (and I think that's really generous). If he's doing it with 2P+ or a flush draw (which would include the Ac), you have something around 25% equity.

It's 90bb to call a 165bb pot, so you need 35% equity to break even on the call. If he plays this way with AK as well as 2P+ and the NFDs, you are almost exactly breakeven on the call.

But I think AK combos are discounted, so I think it's an easy fold.

Edit:
Yeah, what Garick said.

Lol, that's not how a forum works. You're post needs to stay for the benefit of other users. Mods please restore the OP?

So browni didn't post it very nicely, but he's right that this is a learning experience for all of us, not just OP. I put the hand back up, as I don't see any reason to delete it and it's an interesting spot.

If you don't want to follow the discussion anymore, you don't have to, but you might find some items or questions spark insights you hadn't thought of.

I could see a random taggish player doing this with AK, but not FD's as much. Still think you're behind quite often as your range is pretty strong, and it's unlikely to get bluffed unless there's some sort of crazy history.

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