Live 2/5 game. I've been noticeably card dead/tight all night. Maybe once every 15-25 hands I pick up something and raise, miss the flop and punt. The one time I didn't I ran AQ into a calling station who had no problem chasing me down w/ TPWK on a J8897 run out. Been an action table despite me.

I start the hand with a measly $175. UTG LAG opens pre to $15. He gets four callers including loose BTN player who is on his third BI.

I see AA in the BB.

I know I must raise with the intention of jamming the rest of my stack on just about any flop. I also know that anyone who's paid attention is aware of how little I've been involved.

What's my raise?

Thanks in advance.

EZ 3b AI. If they fold, u just made > 45% of dead $.

Unless u r short $, top off for what sounds to be a good table. If u can't, better to pickup than play this short.

All you can eat baby.

1) Many 2-5 villains doesent pay attention, so dont worry about that. Just casually jam allin.

2) Even if theyre paying attention they often cant resist calling it off, "putting you on AK or 1010" or something like that.

^ +1

I like just shoving pre this short. It looks like a wider range than a smaller raise to anyone paying attention and you'll get some calls from unobservant players with pretty hands too. I wouldn't only be shoving AA here either.

I would GII 99/100 here.

For the sake of conversation, I could see merit in min-raising or raising small and then shoving on virtually any flop. The thought being I might get some calls or (hopefully) a 4b and get a bigger pot while accepting a much higher variance. If my aces get cracked, I reload. If $175 is all I'm playing then I just GII pre.

No don't jam. If you had any hand other than KK/AA that you wanted to continue with, sure, jam.

Not this one though.

What are you advocating then? A raise to 75-80?

I can see spots in my game where small 3bet wold get called by all 5 and then I'd be able to gii on the flop vs 2 or 3 usually crushed hands and perhaps have one deepstack then bet the others out of the pot. My game plays very deep so this could happen and be super profitable.

Trouble is most regs would count down my stack after the small 3bet, remember I've been very tight and conclude they can't flat much profitably against me because they'll let a load of deepstacks in behind them and get maimed postflop.

My reg openers will probably either shove or fold and I think they'll shove a tighter range than they'll flat against my allin. I think the PFRaiser would see a big committing 3bet (big enough to chase out the other players behind him) as similarly strong to a small 3bet and continue a similar range, still narrower than vs my allin.

If preflop raiser were a loose recreational player I might go for a small raise intending to gii MW on all flops in the hope of tripling or quadrupling up. Vs a reg opener a gambly looking allin would be best I think.

Brings up an interesting math question.

Say in Course of Action 1 we ship for $175. For scenario 1a, when we fold out the field our EV= 1(75) - 0(175) = 75. For scenario 1b, when we get one non-believer with 88 who puts us on AK, the pot will contain $60 in dead money and we gii as a 4.5:1 favorite against a single player. EV = .82(60+175) - .18(175) = 161.20. If 1a and 1b occur at a 1:1 ratio our overall EV is 118.10.

In Course of Action 2, if we assume that a 3b to $40 will bring about a 6way $240 pot and we plan to ship our remaining $135 on all flops, this will obviously bring about far more variance. Let's say that for scenario 2a we get three callers. One has a flush draw, one has top pair, one has middle pair and a couple backdoors. So now we have $120 in dead money and we gii with 30% equity against three players. EV = 0.3(120 + 525) - 0.7(175) = 71. For scenario 2b let's say we get three callers and one has a set (we'll say our 2 outs are good). EV = 0.056(120 + 525) - 0.944(175) = -129.20. For scenario 2c, on a few rare occasions we get the money in really good against three players, say when two players have TT and one has top pair and a bdfd. EV = 0.76(120+525) - 0.24(175) = 448.20. For scenario 2d, we'll say we get one caller with a combo draw and we gii as a slight favorite with $160 of dead money. EV = 0.52(160 + 175) - 0.48(175) = 90.20.

To look at the 4bet scenario you mention (we'll call this scenario 2e), let's say the initial raiser calls with AK, and it goes fold, fold, player behind ships with 99, we call, initial raiser calls. Under that scenario we get $45 dead money in the pot and face 2 villains all in pre. EV = 0.72(45+ 350) - 0.28(175) = 235.40.

So looking at the above, we would need to be able to definitively say how often we think each of the scenarios would take place in order to weight everything together and say whether COA1 is superior to COA2.

My gut feeling is that 1b takes place more often than 1a, making the EV for COA1 a bit higher than $120. I also think we'll see 2a and 2d happen more often than 2b, 2c, and 2e. And of course there are far more possible scenarios that may occur than the ones I outlined. But based on the quick math I've done I like COA1 more than COA2.

Easy jam in this spot, I'm not sure there is another play here other than to shove.

Put me in the raise to 50-60 + shove flops camp.

If be surprised if this has less ev than shoving pre

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Raising is bad because you risk it going 6 ways with AA. I'd just jam pre and pick up the dead $60 or have one or two people call. You might even get called pretty light here because it could look like a squeeze.

65 - 75. Shove all flops.

It would be awesome if it went 6 ways.

yeah id jam AK, TT-QQ and maybe KK too.

too much make it 55.

i think 3bet to 50-60 is exactly the right play. shoving will get everyone to fold quite often and 50-60 almost guarantees a call and not just from players looking to set mine but from KJ looking to hit top pair. let them continue with their KJs.

i have played tons of hours of 40bb poker and i can guarantee you you dont want to be shoving pre with AA in this spot.

your post has too many scenarios and i dont like it.

1a take place a lot more often than 1b, thats just a fact. with card removal there aren't many hands for villains to call this jam with.

also you're 3bet size in COA2 is wrong. 3bet to 40 is too small. we dont want 3 callers and a 3bet to 40 is going to get 5callers not 3. they already put in 15 they will not fold for 25 more getting even better pot odds.

math is idiotic, and you don't need to math this one, experience and logic are whats needed here. both of which say raise to 50-60. jam all flops.

you barely have any money left, but you have to go for some value. make it 60 and pray for only two callers.

Let me tell you that youre _not_ the only one having played tons of poker, at almost any stackdepth.

With all the respect, a "guarantee" from a player i dont know at all i take with a pinch of salt. I am not convinced that shoving isnt the best play this shallow. You "guaranteeing" isnt a valid argument at all. A few things to consider:

1) If we shove and get folds we pick up 60$ at a 100 percent of the time rate. Thats a great baseline for profit in this spot: we win the dead money 100 percent of the time.

2) If we shove and get one player to call it off pre (wich i believe will happen a decent portion of the time here, somebody always want to be the police and try to punish the squeezeshorty), then we get full double up from that player like 75-90 percent of the time depending on the hand they call us with.

3) By giving people a chance to see a flop for 50$ with hands like KQ,AJ or AQ before they decide to commit, they will often whiff the flop and then dont put anymore money in. But if we give them the chance of doing so, they likely will make a calling mistake pre for all the money.

This guy wins.

I raised to $75 .... aaaand everyone folded. But that's fine, I was happy to fuel up my stack a little bit. Better than getting called by worse, auto-shoving the flop and losing it all.

How often could we get away with this kind of 3 bet when we DON'T have AA? I wonder if this is an exploitable spot given the lineup of the table. Naturally if we're talking about a bunch of OMCs and nits calling $15 pre, this would be stupid. But a bunch of LAGs ... why not make this move with $75 and pick up the pot?

Why not flat? You are 35bb deep. You are almost hanging out of the shallow end of the kiddie pool. You are never folding so you want as much money in the pot as possible and if you get coolered you get coolered. You are I think at least 50% to win the hand even if all six stay to showdown. Check flop and if there is a bet followed by callers or a raise just jam it in then. You can play it safe and win $60 or maybe $230 if you are lucky and one of them has JJ+/AK. Or you can take a chance and maybe win $230-$400 and get your stack up to a somewhat reasonable size.
If you were really shallow like $90, shove, you will get callers. But at this amount, its enough for people to actually think for half a second and fold.

Flatting can't be the right play. For instance, let's say we min-raise to $25 (not advocating this but comparing it to flatting). Do you agree we probably get everyone to call that bet? If so, the min-raise has to be better than flatting, given we're committed no matter what. If you think a min-raise is better than flatting then it just becomes a question of what bet sizing is optimal. Count me in the $60 camp.

When you have AA you block half your opponents combos of AX which typically make up a big chunk of a loose player's call 3bet range. When you 3bet any other hand they're more likely to continue than when you have AA.

I shippity here, sub 40bb, and expect to get snapped by medium pockets that put us on AKo or whatever.

All-in. I may all-in here w/ AQs+,AKo,88+

This is a mental game leak. A good player won't be emphasising tpWk in this spot out of resentment/bitterness. He had a bluff catcher, he decided to bluff catch, that's the end off.

No, your goal is to make the most profitable decision on the flop as possible.