even with other players, including the btn straddler, still to act, i think it would still be a pretty big mistake not to 3b AA here absent some aggro squeeze dynamic we havent heard of (and even then id still prob want to). AA specifically gets a ton of ev from inflating the size of the pot preflop, we are also reopening the betting to an aggro V very deep, and its not as if we cant be 4b squeezed by the btn or another button clicker. backraises also tend to look really strong to most people (esp as the first caller), so when it goes flat->3b->backraise, many people are gonna shut down rather than just spew. obviously some crazy **** was going on in this game, but without more specific info i think moving to an adjustment of flatting AA here would not be good.

we're shouldnt be flatting only looking to back raise (i also pointed out previously that i would be back raising with several hands including bluffs, not just AA), we're flatting because there are whales in this game who will gamble and i'd rather play in pots with them. 3betting V here usually guarantees we play against only V. flatting gives us the chance to let other people come along, inflate the pot, and make a mistakes against us.

Agreed. If the whales are not in the blinds IMO we should be 3 betting sometimes flatting sometimes with our entire continuing range. I think at this stack depth we want our continuing range to be as wide and balanced as possible preflop. It will allow us to choose a variety of lines postflop and based on flop texture can allow us represent whichever part of our range we choose. Being capped in a spot where an aggressive player knows you are capped is a recipe for disaster. Sometimes we don't have a choice, but at this stack depth the world can be your oyster.

the problems you identified earlier regarding how AA doesnt make many strong absolute hands other than AAA is much more acute in a multiway srp when deep. essentially, they are going to make fewer mistakes when you will usually have 1p by the river, they are trying to improve to specifically >1p, and stacks are deep/there are lots of implied odds. we should also not forget that allowing the whales into the pot by not 3betting is essentially letting a good aggressive V freeroll the flop and we arent going to be hu with the whales post. finally, when it comes down to it, whales gonna whale - they will be coldcalling our 3b much wider than your avg player and now we are in a much bigger pot with lower spr and our aggro V might even decide to 4b "to iso." i think a full, in depth analysis of flatting vs 3betting is pretty complicated, so this is kind of the outline of why i dont think flatting is particularly good here.

capped pre vs capped post (esp deep) are really different things. flatting AA to not be capped in a srp 700bb deep doesnt really make much sense imo. I think your argument is much more reasonable wrt a hand like AQs

also, being balanced for the sake of balance is not a goal we should even have. there are situations that we just have to have 0 combos of a certain hand bc playing it another way is so much more profitable; i think AA is one of those hands here (absent specific dynamic).

3 betting AA is clearly the move PF because it invites a 4bet from our opponents left to act, where we can 5bet get it in or call the 4bet in position and stack off on the flop.

We really don't want to just call the UTG's raise and risk AA going 4way. Its not a disaster, but when we hold the nuts this deep we should shovel money in the pot and let our opponents make a massive mistake against us.

Once our 3bet is called and we see a flop, our strategy changes, and now our goal isn't to get as much in the pot as possible, against this specific opponent His range is wide enough to have a ton of hands that outflopped us and hes also capable of moving us off hands, knowing how capped our range is. We got our value from him pre-flop, where he called our raise with a dominated hand, out of position. If he wants to bluff we have an excellent bluff catcher, but this isn't the kind of hand we want to get it all in with.

If we were heads up with OMC, I would be much much happier value betting the flop, because his flop calling range is capped at KK QQ JJ 1010. he would probably re-raise with only AA pre and wouldn't even call a 3bet without 88 or better. If OMC re-raises us on the flop we can be very confident that OMC is not getting out of line and must be holding 99. But against this tricky villain, by betting the flop, we are opening ourselves up to being bluffed off the best hand, while simultaneously getting value owned when he smashes the flop.

As played, once we bet this flop, I think we have to call the check- raise. I think its going be realllly hard for Villain, if he's bluffing, to fire another barrel on the turn once hero has decided to call the flop raise. He would basically be deciding to risk 3k on a bluff against a perceived thinking player holding KK or AA. If V is a good, winning player, is he really going to want to risk 3k in this spot? Hero has seen V 3 barrel bluff, but that is a lot different then check-raising a 3bet pot, and completely unloading the clip on the remaining streets. Not many villains are capable of this....

There's enough hands in Villain's range, we have to call on the flop.

c/r's are usually not bluffs, even from good players. We're deep and we have an overpair. I don't see anything wrong with folding, or we can make the higher variance play by flatting the flop but I would be expecting him to fire away on the turn.

The problem is our hand is almost face up and the villain has a lot of cards (and a big stack) he can bet pot with on the turn that will look awful for the hero.

I would have raised more pre this deep, to about 130.

Let's gets some resolution here guys

How can you even think about folding? You just showed a three bet bluff recently. Your range to him is pretty much any two cards, especially in a straddled pot with position. He could be check raising with anything from a pair to air. He probably doesn't have a set or two pair as he would probably check raise smaller with those. His most likely hand is a pair with a flush draw or open ended flush draw. I would just call and evaluate turn. If a club comes on the turn you can even consider raising, since AcXc is definitely in your range.

because this spot sucks super deep and you have to think about what is going to happen on the turn.

Also there are whales at the table and you want your stack big.

There are better spots than this - and if villain does happen to have a set you are in really bad shape.

As played - i'm probably calling and folding to a non club turn. unless it's an ace of course =)

If a club does come i'm probably shoving and going to try and run it 3 times if that is allowed.

If you wilt in the face of pressure and can only call a check raise with a set in this spot, you probably shouldn't be playing in a deep stack game. It also let's the villain know in the future that all he has to do is CR the flop and you will fold unless you have a set. Both of their ranges are super wide and you ready to dump AA on a flop with numerous draws?

In addition, if you want to preserve your stack so you can beat up on the donks, then you probably shouldn't be playing AA against villain in position the first place if you are only going to continue if you hit the flop super hard.

Isn't 3-betting kind of a disaster? Isn't calling better than 3-betting?

Villain isn't calling with worse or folding better to a 3-bet.

Villain might fold worse... or he might shove with a draw-heavy range.

Did you want to 3-bet/fold? Or get it in? I don't like either.

I think it's between call and fold.

I want to call.

This should obviously be a much better flop for villain than it is for hero. Hero is really capped to one pair hands at best. Villain can have 99, 66, 44, 96s, 64s, and strong draws. We do have some equity with the Ac. We're getting 2.5:1 to call. That alone are nearly the right odds to chase a club or an A.

If a single club falls, that's actually a very nut card... we get to play in position and see what villain does. It improves our equity, obviously, but even moreso, it's a great bluffing opportunity since we will have the nut blocker with extremely deep stacks. We can see if and what villain bets, we could possibly call again, shove as a semi-bluff, or call and shove river as a bluff, and of course we always have equity to bink the flush or set.

Well I'm not 3b to $1000 and then folding...if I'm calling I just call down the whole way, but that kind of sucks too.

Yeah, fair enough.

I do think we can count 1 club on either street as at least a partial bluffing out.

For everyone saying 3! to $1075 OTF, what worse hand are we getting to fold? Villain isn't stuffing 700BB in with A9, and I doubt he'll stuff 3.5k in with 1 pair.

Villain's raising range here is pretty wide. Anything from sets/combos/OESD/2pair, etc.

Board: 9c 4c 6d
Hand 0: 57.035% 57.04% 00.00% 22586 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 42.965% 42.96% 00.00% 17014 0.00 { JJ-99, 66, 44, Kc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, 87s, 8c6c, 7c6c, 75s, 6c5c, 64s, 53s }

Being such a wizard, and being so deep, I think V is flatting with basically his whole range preflop. OTF, It's a great spot for Villain to put pressure on Hero, and find out the strength of my hand. Once he X/R's, I suspect he has more of a comboish hand, but nutted hands are definitely in his range.
I think his range consists more of draws vs made hands. Why? Because Villain doesn't think I'm 3!'ing him with 66,99,44, and knows I'm not willing to get 700BB in with 1 pair (AA or KK), and knows I'm not going to call flop if I don't have a plan OTT.


Hero calls with the plan to ride this one out.

Turn $1105
946 - 8

Villain tanks, and checks, hero...?

Interesting, and good call imo.

I think sets are now unlikely. I expect villain to keep betting those for value from your range, which is mostly overpairs and also some flush draws (some lighter 3-bets and also AKcc). I really think 44,66,99 are unlikely. Like I said above, I totally agree V can have two pair on the flop... but I also think he's mostly betting his two pair on the turn.

I think TT,JJ are unlikely. That's a fairly spastic flop check/raise.

9c6c is impossible btw.

I think the 75 straight continues to bet. He can get value, you often check behind, and the river card can kill action for his strong hands.

My sense is villain has a middling draw or middling pair or, most likely, a middling pair + middling draw and recognizes he doesn't have much fold equity. That, by the way, is exactly why I also think he's going to bet two pair+ for value... you're calling the turn so often.

By the way, you probably check this flop behind too often out of fearing the c/r / "pot control" / etc.

So please don't check this time imo.

His hand looks a lot like 87s, 6xcc, 8xcc. 53s maybe, but that's a stretch.

I'm likely betting the turn and not folding. Again, I think he has middling strength so often here, and I really don't expect him to check the turn with his strong hands - the benefit of our position is that he's forced to act first and unbalance his range a bit... after you call the flop c/r, it'd be kind of nuts for him to continue a bluff on a relative blank especially if he has a draw + some showdown value - 87s comes to mind in particular.

And, yes, like I said, I don't think he expects you to bet the turn this deep. So I don't expect a c/r.

Further said, while I think he's expecting and hoping for a check behind, when you bet, he might very well decide to c/r with a weak pair + draw, because that should look so strong to you and he should have some OK equity if behind.

650/shove imo.

I also want my delayed c-betting range to include hands that are being bet for value. What hands would you suggest for that?

Overall, I'd suggest mixing it up and sometimes betting AA on a flop like this and sometimes checking. How often you do each is a matter for debate.

Who says we want V to fold? He's probably not c/r any overpair so his range is sets/2p/draws/air, I think we're doing pretty well against that range, and he might ship a draw since he still has some pretty good FE when you have to call off $2500 more with a pair.

Yeah agree he isn't stuffing w one pair. Villain also knows there are whales around, so at 2/5 it's a rare V that shoves 700 bigs with a draw when we show a lot of strength with a 3! On flop. So in this specific case Think it makes the hand easier to play and charges his draws. Certainly not something you'd normally do but like it in this situation.

3betting on the flop this deep is absolutely terrible. First of all I am only 3betting if I am looking to get it in vs a 4bet, and this deep, that would not be a wise idea. 3bet/folding is also terrible because we give up our potential equity since we have a club.
call all day. Don't risk another c/r. If a club falls otr and he bets big I would most likely fold (actually any big bet otr is a strong line so I would def consider folding). We have one pair in a huge pot in 2/5...

I think the 8 is a nice card for us. It blanks his clubs, it's unlikely he opened early with a 57 type of hand.

The only way he now has 2 pair is if he opened 68cc. Which with the game dynamics described, seems like not a good play as it's likely to be reraised.

98 doesn't c/r the flop.

But now he likely improved to a pair + FD or FD + Gutter. Now he has more options to pay us off if we want to bet for value here.

We can't expect to get any value on the river when it bricks. So v-betting here is still inline with 2 streets of value.

I agree that v never checks his value hands here. So I'm not worried about a c/r.

V-bet 600-750. Call the unlikely shove. Run it a couple times if needed.

Call river bet on non club/straights. Check back when checked to.

Masta--

This deep, I check the flop

I'm checking back on the turn. If he check/raises again, we are in terrible shape. Those of you advocating a bet, are you calling a raise? I'm taking the free street and re-evaluating on river. I can easily see V checking here hoping we bet or expecting us to call his bet on the river. He can't expect to get three streets from our hand, although he might've gotten it. If he was drawing on flop, almost everything has hit except a club.

I think bet/call is a pretty sexy line here. There's a chance he just completely owned us with a set, but it should be really hard for him to check a hand better than AA on this board and this action.

I was thinking about this and in game your right. I'm never flatting AA here on the btn at this stack depth. I do it up to 200BB because I know I can still get stacks in if I choose. I may be wrong but I think doing it at smaller stack sizes may convince some villains that we can do it at bigger stack sizes. When I was talking about being capped I was more referring that we should be 3-betting a lot more. In this spot I feel that villain is capped post-flop because I don't think he 3-bets hands like 44 and 66 and rarely 99 which he should be.

I feel like this is a needle

Great analysis. The only problem with a turn bet here is that it's going to set up a low SPR spot on the river and half the deck is going to be trouble. A turn bet is going to get value from most of my range since i'm rarely checking value here (though I will occasionaly). But if I choose to check raise or I flat and a scary river comes out (which is like half the deck) and I ship the river, it's going to be a gross spot.


Its only spew if it doesn't work! Results based poker. Thats what I always say.