I would call his river raise, u are definitely beat but some of his range, but the way he played it, it seems like 87 hand (second pair that improved or just got stubborn with) and as the turn or the river hit he wanted to bluff u off it.. I think he have some kind of pair (weak K or second pair) and he gave u credit for a better Kx later and wanted to represent a flush so you can fold... The way it was played it seems like a bluff to me

Grunch

It is easy to miss a weird straight, but when the flush card comes OTR nope.

This guy seems like the type that are playing on the first level. He is engrossed in his hand. He probably does not lead with a draw like you, therefore he does not put you on a flush draw. Maybe he has AxK?

The river raise is big and not all-in. This is usually indicating someone that wants a call.

I think a crying call is in order though getting 3:2. If he holds KQ or QJ or the like so be it.

I would first talk to him and look for signs of wanting a call. Is he looking at your chips? Is he smiling? GL

Not sure I am a fan of folding here. What range do you put villain on otr?

He was wearing sunglasses. Sitting very still. Elbows propped on the armrest. With his palm covering his mouth. Leaning in slightly, but no obvious leg-jumping or hand shaking.

I asked him "is there a reason why you left some chips back?" but got no reply.

The leaveback is very suspicious. He is 100% committed - why not shove unless he is fishing for a call?

Still, it is 200 to the hero with 290 in the pot. You are getting 2.4 - 1. The A takes away a lot of the FD's.

On ther other hand, I think AK,AA, and KK are super unlikely given villain was OTB preflop even against this kind of player. (He might have sluffed from early.) Pocket 7's and pocket 4's are definitely possible though. Most villains would bet these on the flop, but maybe not this one.

I think it is a close, but a villain like this can do some random stuff. Against even a remotely tight villain I fold. Against this guy, I think I call. (I assume from the fact you are posting that he had a flush. )

BTW - You needed to bet more ($60) on the turn with 15 outs to win it right there, eliminate the bigger FD's, and to completely conceal your hand if villain calls and the hits.

Just curious, if villain had leg jumping, how would you interpret? (I know what Phil Helmuth's book says, but what do others think now that this has been publicized?)

Easy fold in hand 1, your hand is basically the same as TP and is purely a bluff catcher.

That is to say, no value hands raise your river and in reality there aren't any value hands he could have that are worse. With the exception of like 65hh, 64hh (both of which might be raising the flop) he can't ever have a worse flush.

You are probably right. I think the leave back would be enough to tip me into folding.

grunch

I think this is a fold. Even though V does like to slowplay, most V's freeze up when a flush card hits and probably wouldn't raise a set/2 pair.

Even if V played every suited hand, his flush range would still be a ~79% favorite over your hand. You could only beat a 6 high flush.

I sense some serious self leveling in this thread. OP, the second hand you posted is not representative of a normal flush draw. In the second hand he has TPMK + FD and that is twice the equity of a normal FD.

So sure, based on your new post I'm confident V doesn't have TPMK + FD

If you want to post a hand that is helpful, either post a pure flush draw or a bluff on V's part.

Uhhhh. It seems to me the two flops are pretty similar to me. If he had the nut flush in the OP, that would mean he also had top pair on the flop which would be an incredibly similar flop from villain's POV

^^^^^

Players are human, they do spew and go nuts every so often.

River raise is nutty, simple as that.

I don't think a typical player would equate a nut flush draw to TPMK + FD.

Take this flop: K 7 5

A) A J
B) K J

IF we were to create a survey and give V's a choice of what hand they would want an Overwhelming percentage of players would choose B.

Then you have to consider that most fish over value top pair anyways and so there is no way that the two hands you posted would be similar in the minds of most LLSNL players. Not saying that there aren't V's that would shove both.

But I sense you are trying to use the second hand for some sort of template for how V plays his flush draws and imo you can't (or shouldn't) do that because not all flush draws are equal in the minds of a fish.

Sure, equity wise they can be equal but fish don't know about equity. Hell, I've seen tons of fish be weak with OESFD because they had no clue that their hand is absolutely monster equity wise on the flop. Most fish just don't think like that.

I see your point dgi, but my motive is a little simpler than that. In establishing a river raising range, I'm trying to piece together every action villain has taken and what he would do with particular hands. Then I weight those hands based on what he could have done and our history.

I feel KQ, KJ, and KT have to have a decreased weight ("X") because we now know he raises those hands X% of the time on the flop.

The question then becomes what weight do we give it. The same can be said of AA, KK, and AK in this spot.