Hero and Villain have played 3 out of the past 4 days together (~12 hrs). Villain is a recreational player in his 50s. Very outspoken and opinionated. Loose, semi-passive pre-flop. Raises most strong hands, but "occassionally limps AK because it never hits". Saw him limp/rr AA twice from EP, but raise it to 35 from LP. LOVES to slowplay hands. If he flops a relatively strong hand, you won't see any aggression until later. I have only seen him raise 2 rivers, but he did not show those hands down. I have seen him make semi-bluff bets, but not any semi-bluff raises. An example from previous night illustrating villain's tendencies:

Hero is in BB with 53o. 4 limpers and I check. Villain is OTB. Flop: AT4. Checks around. Turn: 2. I lead 25. 2 callers. Villain raises to 100. I raise to 205. Other 2 folded and villain says "take it all then" and ships it for 310 with ATo.

On to the hand in question:

Hero is in BB with 9h8h.

Villains stack: 420
Hero covers

Villain limps UTG+1. CO, button, and SB limp. I check.

Flop (25):
K74
SB open mucks. Hero bet 15. Villain calls. CO calls. Button folds.

Turn (70):
6
Hero leads for 40. Villain calls. CO folds.

River (150):
A
Hero leads for 85. Villain thinks for ~30 seconds and makes it 285 (leaving 70 back).

The fact villain slowplays his flopped monsters changes things considerably I think. We can't quite take AA, KK, or AK out of his range completely.

What do you guys think?

He may overplay his hand on what he perceives as dry board, ie. the hand you hit your gutter, but he's probably not bad enough to overplay his non-flush hand on a flush board, which is probably the biggest fear of most poker players.

Pretty easy fold, and don't level yourself into calling big bets from passive players when their perceived value range includes so many hands that beat yours.

I think he has KhJh and it is just a gross thing that has happened. I also think you should have checked the turn.

Its gross, I think its a fold but you really have to call tho. If you think he is capable of raising like that with anything besides a flush, call. If not, fold

Calling is horribad here. Very few people are capable of raising river without near nuts in llsnl.

I agree its mostly a fold...this looks like KhXh....one thing that intrigues me: why raise so much with the nuts..it would seem if villain wanted a call a raise to $200 would have done the job...but $285 with $70 left behind?
I CAN make a hero call hero given specific reads/tendencies I would have seen from villain, i.e. the two other hands OP mentioned that villain raised river (how much was the raise and what was the board run out)

I think his range is K high, Q high, J high, 10 high, and 6 high flush. Then add in a few bluffs (65o or 75o), then down weight the 6 high flush. Looks like we win ~1/5 times, or 20%. We need to win ~27% to call. Fold.

Btw, good flop and turn bet. I'd bet $70 on the turn though, hoping for a fold from some K-X hand or medium/mid pairs.

He is certainly capable of raising without the nuts. He plays passively preflop to see the flop, but can get aggressive post. He understands semi-bluffing and puts opponents on ranges (albeit not very accurate ones).

I feel we have to discount KQ, KJ, and (to a lesser extent) KT. He raises the flop a least some of the time with these hands considering he knows I don't have AK and probably not KQ here. He almost never has K6 because he raises the turn.

QJ, QT, and JT are far more likely than a K hi flush, but those are only 3 combos.

To put it in perspective, there are 16 combos of AA, KK, AK, and 65. All of which are capable of raising here.

On a side note, I don't think calling is never horrible here considering we are getting 1.6/1 and we have the 4th nut. No matter what the decision is, nothing is horrible here. It's a really close spot no matter how you look at it.

By my count, we have 8 combos beating us and 16 we are beating, but many combos have to be discounted.

LOL ok. Calling river raises from passive players is burning money in llsnl. But ya, leveling yourself to calling is fine.

You said he raises most strong hands preflop - would he limp in with KJ, K10 suited in EP? You said he likes to limp/raise with aces, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he had AA. A lot of recreational players play their draws passively, so since you bet twice he may be putting you on a lower set/2 pair and think he's value towning you on the river. I also think he can have AK given your description.

It's far from a snap, but I call.

I said he is loose and semi-passive preflop. I also said he is aggressive post flop, but has a tendency to slowplay hands that would be considered the top of his range on the flop.

I think you may be over generalizing the passive aspect. Just because a villain is passive in one area of his game doesn't mean he is in all areas.

I think this is an incredible bluff by his part, its also in line that is consistant with how he'd play a flush draw.

If he had AA, KK, AK would c/r turn. I can't see a non-flush hand raising river on a bluff. That isn't really in line with what we know about this V.

So either this is a world class float with the sole intention of bluffing you on river or he's drawing to the flush and got there.

So is he ever raising like this with a baby flush? If the answer is yes, then you can call. But to me that seems pretty damn thin. I think more often than not if he has the flush its higher than yours.

So, I tip my hat to V, if its a bluff, its a good one, we have to fold

He's definitely limp calling KJ and KT preflop in EP. I was thinking along the same lines as you in regards to his possible range.

It seems he mixes up how he plays his draws. I've never seen him raise draws, but I've seen him bet them a couple times without regard to position. I've also seen him call down with OESD+Flush draws and muck when they miss.

This changes my vote to a fold, especially the second line. Still wouldn't be surprised to see AA/AK but if the above is true it's more likely he has the flush.

Maybe for those of us that are beyond one dimensional, but most players are simply what you see is what you get.

Yes there will be times that they make an out of character move, but we are definitely better off ignoring it than to consider it as part of villain's toolbox.

I'm going to bump this because of a hand I played with villain last night. It certainly changed my perception of the posted hand. Hero's holdings are irrelevant.

Villain has ~700. Hero covers.

Villain limps UTG+1. 3 others limp. Hero is in SB. Hero raises to 35. Villain calls. HJ calls.

Flop (115):
K T 6
Hero bets 65. Villain shoves. Fold. Fold.
Villain shows K J

Anyone change what they would do or have additional input?