If you can't see villa near 3b ak/ Aq pre and c betting that wet board then that's the only thing we beat. It looks like he has a confident aa / kk and nothing else. I don't see bluffs. I only see value hands and the only thing we do is tie qq. Fold this spot is way behind.

Who range has draws in it on turn? Obviously the villains doesn't have many.

What hands does Hero have that has draws?







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A few issues here. First is the combo count. You beat 16 AK combos, lose to 13 JJ+, and tie 1 QQ.

Second is villain never calls a shove with AK. You get no value from worse hands. In fact, you potentially lose money because you don't allow him to bluff with worse.

Third, shoving turns a showdown value hand into a bluff. You need him to fold KK+ a very high % of the time. I think you rarely get better hands to fold.

Finally, the EV calc is off. You're shoving about $200 to win a pot of $175, meaning villain needs to fold >53% of the time to make the bet 'profitable'.

Think about the range you're shoving against that can call. You're beating all AK anyway whether you check or bet. You're really bluffing to eliminate KK+. Assuming you always lose if called, you need to fold better hands at a rate of 53%+. Not going to happen.

I think shove lead river is fine if V is indeed nitty, and if deeper check-shove river would work also. This will be profitable because nitty villians will rarely call with AA/KK on a board of with the high card paired. Villain has no jacks in his range except for the unlikely JJ. Villain also has no full houses in his range while Hero has all underfulls + Jacks in our range.

I hate the idea of shoving the river *if* we think we're bluffing. If he checked back the turn with AA/KK he did it partly to induce a bluff, we shouldn't have a Jx in our range (other than JJ, what, we're raising/calling AJ preflop OOP?), and he's never folding with this SPR.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Again, hate your range construction.

We have lots more Jacks than we have flush draws, and straight draws.

Your advocating villain to shove on turn. If we are not getting called by Jacks on turn. Why are you shoving?

To get value from QQ?

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Unless we're terrible, there's no way we should have Jx (apart from JJ) in our range.

If we are terrible, then Villain should be shoving turn with AA/KK to get value from our terrible hands now before the action/hand killer.

If we aren't terrible, then I can get on board with Villain checking back turn with AA/KK, but it is obviously to snap call a bet (shoving is *never* going to get AA/KK to fold).

GcluelessrangenoobG

Just to clarify, I'm only advocating shoving if we have a nitty/scared money read on V. Obviously as a bluff as V is unlikely to have a hand that beats trip Jacks. Also nits have a tendency to believe the worst, therefor giving us credit for at least a J.

Obviously the J would be a great card to open Jam with both our value and our bluffs but we have a bluff catcher of medium value and a great price.

This is a relatively easy call and lose a decent chunk of the time but not 75% of the time and that's all that matters.

All of this leads back to flop sizing.

So if we can range Hero to sets and pocket pairs, and premium aces.

There is zero reason to bet flop larger than, villain did in this hand. His sizing is great. He gets calls from all smaller pairs.

He gets Ak, AQ, and any other suited Aces to fold.

If villain has AK, (he is likely going to cbet, and profitably and this sizing)

Villain CBets AK, he may get pocket pair less than 88 to fold (maybe not), likely going to get AK to fold. And then can check back turns, and realize his equity, which is very important.

Larger sizing, puts him in awkward postion on most turns with Ace high.

So advocating for larger bets on flop, is likely losing max, and getting less value.

Plus, smaller sizing live in 3 bet pots, gets people to spazz. As they are not familiar with it.

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As I've said, I'm a bit more ok with that so long as Villain views Hero as competent. ETA: If Villain has AA/KK, the line he took probably would have gotten max value out of me; but if he sees me as incompetent, then I believe he's left far too much value on the table.

The very fact that Hero called a 3bet OOP HU to a competent player *almost* brings that into question (although admittedly this is a very difficult preflop spot for Hero).

GcluelesscompetencynoobG

Also disagree with this statement (you hate me by now).

Easy call vs given range.

QQ has almost enough set mining odds to call pre vs this tight range. Add in fact we have a showdown worthy hand. And that villain is extremely heavily weighted to AK, QQ, JJ. Vs AA, KK.

Also fact, it is common to see 2/3-3/4 pot size CBets from his entire range. Makes for easy call.

Will give you. That this would be single hand I call with. Vs the range being OOP.

Dont think JJ, 1010, will show large enough profit. And I wouldn't be flatting AK. (Although going to run numbers now).

Also, if his 3 betting range is JJ+, AK, then there is no reason to move seats as suggested. As he isn't 3 betting enough to effect our play. If anything, he is forcing us to play well preflop.

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We're only getting 10:1 preflop, hardly remotely close to profitable setmining odds. He typically loses very little when he whiffs AK or his JJ- sees an overcard (typically one cbet, right?) versus how much we lose when we both flop overpairs (such as the case here if he has AA/KK). Even though QQ is doing ok against a TT/AK range doesn't simply translate into an easy call preflop given that we're not going to check it down postflop; but admittedly it still might be the best preflop play (although honestly a nit fold is fine, imo).

I'll admit I initially read the read incorrectly in that perhaps this villain could 3bet lightly, therefore more for a seat change. Still, having him there "forcing us to play well preflop" sucks when a big part of our goal should be attempting to see cheap flops with morons (and this guy might put a wrench in that plan). And since it sounds like he's a decent player, we're not in love with seeing a lotta flops OOP to him.

GimoG

So we are calling $30 to win $90

We are snap folding 33% time when A or K flops

We are ahead of his range 65% of time, on rest of the flops. We are going to get auto C-bet on flop. Which is actually where we are getting our value.

Look at it this way.
Worst case scenario (rough estimates)

33% (A,K, flop)=-$30 = EV $-10

44% (we win 1 cbet of $65)=$155= EV 68$

23% (we get stacked by KK+)=-$295= EV -68

So we have -$10 EV call, if we are complete moron, and get stacked 100% of time we are behind.

And villain only ever put 1 bet in when we are ahead.

Not gonna happen. Using more realistic outcomes. And this isn't even close. It's a largely +EV call.





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Numbers on EV of getting stacked are wrong. We only have $280 behind. EV $64.4...

Making worst case scenario EV -$6.6



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Didn't read the whole thing because it seems obvious.
You need to re-raise pre-flop or fold.
Because you will be in tough spot with Queens post flop.

Way it played I think AK flush, Jacks, Kings, Aces are very likely and I would fold.

There is decent discussion on preflop options. You should read thread.

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Getting 3:1, calling or folding on river is fairly neutral play.

Although I would lean towards calling. As he most likely had 25% bluffs in this spot.

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