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Old 06-23-2012, 01:36 PM   #1
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150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

Ballys Atlantic City, 10 Handed full ring, $1/$1 NLHE

Hero is in HJ with T8 with about $110 ($150 max buy-in for this game)

Preflop:
1 Fold, 2 Calls, 1 Fold, 1 Call, Hero Calls $2, 2 Calls, 1 Fold, BB Completes to $2

Flop: ($15)
79Q
UTG +1 Checks, MP1 Bets $12, MP3 Calls $12 Hero Calls $12, 4 Folds

Turn: ($46)
A
MP1 Bets $45, MP3 Tanks and calls $45, Hero????

Now I have 15 outs. But they are not pure outs particularly if someone else is holding spades. How many outs should I discount in this spot? Is a call here clearly justified? By the way, if MP3 doesn’t call the turn I am probably folding this spot. I hate getting this much of my stack in on a draw. Was I ok to call the flop? Should I have raised and shoved the turn, this would be a better line alternatively but it's fine the way I played it, right?
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Old 06-23-2012, 01:45 PM   #2
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Re: 150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

You are getting the right odds to call the turn and fold river unimproved. If MP1 had bet smaller, an argument could be made to shove turn, but oh well. As for a flop raise...I'm a little iffy on it, I guess you could make it $40 and shove turn but you don't have the right stack size to play it properly.

I can actually see an argument for just shoving the flop...that might get a ton of better draws and most if not all Qx to fold. And it's not really a huge overbet.
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Old 06-23-2012, 02:45 PM   #3
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Re: 150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

Yeah, you're priced in to call. I think the only person you have to worry about if the 6 or J lands on the river is MP3, MP1's bet suggests he's worried about the drawy board and has a hand now whereas MP3's tank-call likely means "That's a big bet and I shouldn't call it, but I feel lucky today, I think..."

Even so I'm not folding the river anyway if we hit unless MP3 drops a foolproof tell.
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Old 06-23-2012, 02:59 PM   #4
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Re: 150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

With $110 behind I think I just shove the turn. I may discount one of my straight outs if I think someone has a spade draw.
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Old 06-24-2012, 12:34 AM   #5
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Re: 150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowerdeck View Post
With $110 behind I think I just shove the turn. I may discount one of my straight outs if I think someone has a spade draw.
Shoving the turn here is bad because you have no fold equity at all. All you're doing is effectively reducing your pot odds which were barely enough to justify calling in the first place.
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Old 06-24-2012, 12:19 PM   #6
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Re: 150NL: T8 sooted with a turn decision

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Shoving the turn here is bad because you have no fold equity at all. All you're doing is effectively reducing your pot odds which were barely enough to justify calling in the first place.
Now that I think about it I'd have to agree. How much fold equity would we need to consider a shove here?
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