Hero: Mid 20s, known as an aggressive player and have played a lot with villain who has seen me have anything from the nuts to nothing on min-raises.

Villain: 30s, pretty tight player, but decent post-flop. I've never seen him get out of line over a pretty large sample.

Stacks: Hero - 400, Villain 275

Pre-Flop
EP limps
Villain opens in LP to 12
Hero on button calls w/ 75
BB calls, and EP calls

Flop ($49)
752

BB check, EP checks, Villain bets $30, Hero raises to $60, BB folds, EP folds, Villain calls

After his-cbet, I have villains range as [any pair, AQo+, AJs]. That's how tight his opening range is pre-flop.

I know most of you will say I should raise it bigger on the flop, but I know villain can fold 99-JJ here to a big raise and I obviously want to keep those hands in.

Turn ($169):
3

Villain checks
Hero bets $85
Villain thinks for about 15 seconds and shoves for $200 total

Hero ????? (need to call $115 to win $454)

This really surprised me. I know villain never has a straight here. So he either has 77, 55, 22 or KK+. Only 1 combo of both 77 and 55, so I think it's either 22 or KK+.

My question is, wouldn't KK or AA 3bet the flop? If so, I really don't think I am good here at all on the turn. Having said that my image is so aggro that he can easily think AA is crushing me here.

Is this a standard call, or do you guys ever lay this down here given how narrow I believe his range to be?

Thanks,

I think you need to change the way you think about ranges. The fact that there's only 1 combo of 77 or 55 doesn't mean it's either 22 or KK+, it means he has 1 combo of 77 and 1 combo of 55 in his range. If he always raises 22 preflop in this spot then he can have all 3 combos of 22 on the flop. If he always overlimps 22 then he doesn't have any combos of 22 in his range.

You use the # of combos of the different possible hands to get an idea of their likelihood under the assumption villain always takes the given line with those hands then you reduce the likelihood of certain hands relative to the others based on how likely villain is to take that line with these "certain hands."

In reality I'd say most people will overlimp 22, especially tight players so I might only include 1 combo of 22 if I ran his range in pokerstove. I would need a better read to eliminate it completely.

Give it a shot. Download pokerstove, ask yourself what hands he would raise pf, call the minraise, then check/shove turn, and put them in stove. If you think he's twice as likely to take this line with overpairs than sets then reduce the combos of sets by 50%. If you think he does this with JJ but not 88 then don't include any combos of 88. Once you've put in a range you think is accurate then compare your equity vs that range with the pot odds you were being offered and see if it is +ev...the results may surprise you

I burnt my pizza rolls while writing this so I hope it helps because it was -ev life for me (just kidding I kind of liked writing it and pizza rolls are delightfully crispy)

Thanks for the response and sorry about the pizza!

Yes, that was my thought exactly. I would have thought 22 can overlimp there as well. I stoved his range and even at the tightest range of AA,77,55,22, I have 42% equity (I need 20%).

If I cut the time he shoves here with AA by 2/3rd (6 combos down to 2) I then have 25% equity. So basically even if I assume all 6 combos of 22 are in his range here and he only makes this play 1 out of 3 times with AA, I still have enough equity to justify the call.

You are correct. I do find that quite surprising!

Tough spot. Against the description given, I think you're up against a set or an overpair. With the all in on the flop, I'm thinking set. If he doesn't get out of line, overpair becomes less likely unless you've seen him overvalue his hands. He raised pre and called a 3 bet - I'd think he has a set and reluctantly fold.

Never folding for this little against this V he has AA/KK/QQ too much to fold here. If he has 77 oh well but you are getting like 4/1 on your money.