This hand really got me thinking.

$300 effective, there is a straddle to $6 and I'm dealt TT in the CO.

1 limper, and the super LAG to my right (he's been raising like 75% of hands but generally folding to my 3bets. I'd describe him as very laggy pre but solid post-flop.) He makes it $30 and I re-pop it to $90 and he calls.

Flop is K73.

It's about an SPR of 1 and I have $200 behind and he has me covered.

Lets range him AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo. On this range he hits his king about 1/4 (27%) of the time and I expect to be looked up there.

Running it through an EV calculator if I lose $300 when he calls and win $100 (or would it be $200? Is the money in the pot "won" even if its mine?) it comes out to breakeven.

Back to the hand:

I decide to check and the turn is a Q.

It goes check check.

River is an A and he bets out $100 and I have a pretty clear fold. I was disappointed with how this hand went at the time, and I still have mixed feelings about it.

Assuming villain is just playing his hand and doesn't bluff we have a slight edge (58% to 42%) if we just let turns and rivers go.

The spot just felt kind of gross, and these sort of show down value hands have been giving me some trouble lately.

Yes, in hindsight I probably should have shoved the turn... What do you think of my analysis? Yes, we sometimes get called by 88 and 99 here. I'm more interested in it from a theoretical standpoint.

Shove flop.

I guess what I'm trying to ask is would the EV equation on the flop look like:

When he folds (~75%) you win the pot ($200) and when you lose (~25%) you lose $200. I guess that's the better way and it changes the analysis.

****ty spot in general, but i feel against this Villain type TT on K73 flop we're still good very often. I'd be cbetting about $100 for protection/probe and expect to only get called by better and fold out worse to pick up the $200 in the middle which i'm fine with. He would have to be pretty ******ed to call/raise your cbet postflop with a hand worse than TT given you've put out 2/3rds of your stack and is NEVER bluffing in this spot. Doubt he'd try to check raise bluff you off TT/JJ/QQ as you can have AK/AA and will never fold. Checking is okay i guess from a conventional point of view to try and get to showdown asap for as cheap as possible. However if you check you're faceup as TT/JJ, also you're letting a hand youre in front of like AQ/AJ realise their 25% equity for free!! If i was Villain with lets say 88/99 i would bet river too expecting you to fold a large % of the time given the postflop action. If you had AK/AA/KK/QQ i'd expect you to bet that turn once checked to you, the fact that you checked your hand is a hand like you have way too often(JJ/TT).

If we cbet, get a call from Villain. Turn goes check check. Villain jams and we'd be getting 5:1, we just can't call this. Guess you're levelling yourself into thinking that since you played faceup postflop as JJ/TT you think that induced a bluff from villain on the river so you're potentially gonna call down light. Don't mind calling if you have a solid read but i wouldn't recommend it.

shove flop

I'd rather not have the raisey player to my right, although I guess if you have a wide 3bet style then it's not a bad spot. My goal is to get into hands for cheap, plus setup good SPRs with my big hands, so this is a bad seat for that. If we're deep, not in love with being directly OOP to him either, so I'd probably attempt to move across the table from him.

As played, we've made our bed with our 3bet preflop, so lie in that bed. Our hand is probably good (but maybe not) but it's definitely very vulnerable (so giving a free card for hands to suck out on us in a *huge* pot when we're committed is pretty terrible). We could safely check behind AA/AK here, and maybe even QQ, but otherwise our hands start becoming too vulnerable. I shove the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

why would you not shove the flop?

Everyone is saying it, but you gotta shove the flop. When you 3b pre and leave yourself a ~1 SPR, you need to be looking to gii on all but the worst flops. That's a pretty safe flop, and if he has a K then nice hand, sir imo.