1/3, $300 cap.
Very late (like 4am). Just consolidated 2 short tables to make a full game.

Villain was the big stack at the table (we moved to their table), and has me covered at 200bb. Picked up this hand after about 5 hands.


Villain limps UTG+1

Hero (around $600)
CO raises to 15 with A Q
Villain calls.

Flop ($34)
J A 9

Villain checks.

Hero bets 20

Villain check raises to 55.

Hero reraises to 150.

Villain thinks for a minute then calls 115.

Turn ($200ish)
9

Villain checks

Hero???

I think this is a pretty bad turn card for me, and it gets me thinking am I ever going to get called by worse if I bet again?

Given the action and card elimination I'm not really worried about AA here, and on the turn 9/9 is extremely unlikely

However I think JJ could play this way. I think A/J, A9, AK, and J9 all play this way. The only possible flush draw he could have would be K/10h,10/8h (and not the only hearts but) which would give him FD+gutter. I don't think most live players would typically check raise that though.

Just call the 55 on the flop. If you re-raise, he'll fold all his air and if the money goes in, you'll be behind ~40/60 against his range. I presume you don't know the guy, so you can't assume he'll just shove the money in with AT or similar (and if he would, you can stack him anyway on a lot of turn/river cards).

As played, check back.

chk.

check back. hope he doesnt have JJ and flush up

Turn is going to be over 300, not 200ish if I'm right, makes a reasonable difference to turn an river plays an ur spr is around 1:1

You're right, I had a big time math fail while posting this.

Pot should be 374 on the turn.

Falcon,

Flatting the flop would make 144 in the pot on the turn with 530 behind.
Lets say in this case I bet 125 on the turn, that makes 394 on the river, with 405 left.

So yeah it would still be possible to get stacks in by the river. However if we simply flat we're giving up the lead. Flatting and calling a turn bet (if he bets close to pot) actually works out be more, then my raise. However raising still gives me a chance to check back a turn that I don't like, whereas flatting I probably won't get that chance.

Preflop looks obvious.

I also like the just slightly bigger than 1/2 PSB on the flop. There's really not that many draws we fear, plus there's not really a heckuva lotta worse hands that are going to give us action to a big bet.

I don't like the 3bet once we are check/raised. We're playing deepish (200 BBs) so I'm not sure why we want to build the pot up huge with a fairly obvious hand at this point (TP). Sure, we've got the draw, but after being check/raised on the flop my guess is that we need that to hit. I just call the flop check/raise and see what happens on the turn in position.

I'm just checking back the turn. I'm not looking to play for stacks by the river with TP2ndK here. We basically just lose some value from flush draws and that's pretty much it (is any other worse hand going to give 2 more streets of value, possibly for stacks?). I then pay off a reasonable bet on the river or make a value bet myself.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I just call the c/r on the flop. He gave you a sick price. He's almost never c/r and folding unless your AQ is ahead. If it is ahead, he'll just bet weakly on the turn or check, because he didn't consider that what to do if you call his c/r and he just has AT here.

As played, I just check back. He might call with AT or whatever. But, it really sucks getting c/r again.

Is there a bonus at the end of the hand for having kept the lead? Strange promo.

On average? He can't 4bet?

So for the reasons I stated above there's no reason to think this has merit?

Like I said before when we flat, he's always leading the turn. We're never getting a free card. We can't dictate how much to bet.

With a flat there's 144 in the pot on the turn, with about 530ish left behind.

If he bombs the turn (say 150) then we're actually calling more to see the river (which we still want to do).

If he underbets the pot (say 50) then we're not going to be able to get stacks in without a raise (or overbet shove OTR). Raising that bet would inherently have the same logic. He can ship it.

I didn't raise to keep the lead in the hand, that was simply a question when analyzing the hand.

I raised primarily because I messed up the math a bit and didn't realize that we can still play for stacks here without coming back over the top.

However saying "what if he 4bets" is somewhat irrelevant because he didn't, and that's not what we're discussing.

I prefer checking back here. Just a side note question: If we brick river and V checks again should we bet?

And fwiw I actually agree with you guys. I think flatting IS the better option if I had to play it over again.

Also if he's C/R with air wouldn't he shut down when called anyway?

Like I said before I'm not sure most players at this level are capable of C/R semibluffing OOP on this board, would he really C/R bluff a wet board like this?

Based on the range you assigned him, why are you looking to set up the hand to play for stacks?

The true value hands he is raising (99, JJ, AJ) you have no FE against and would be getting stacks in significantly behind. Even if he is always leading the turn, he may continue to give you a nice price to draw to the nuts if the turn bricks. If the board pairs you can probably fold to his turn bet. The bottom of his range is a worse FD which will happily pay off without needing to build a pot earlier in the hand and which would be a disaster to fold out with a flop 3-bet. Folding out AT (less likely) wouldn't be great either.

As played, turn is an easy check behind. This card either means you are drawing dead or you are still ahead but have no value bet.

I think your preflop and flop play is pretty standard. On the turn, I threw in the hands you mentioned plus a few others I thought he might have, weighted to account at least partially for the rarity of him limp/calling AK or AA/JJ, and it came out with us as a 4-1 dog; however, if he does this with most of the straight draws available to him as well (unlikely imo), we're closer to the good side of a 60/40.

The 9s pairing the board is definitely an action killer, given how many draws were on the flop. Anyway, I think we can accomplish two things by bet/folding this turn: one, when villain has a monster, we suggest that he can count on us betting the river as well, possibly earning us the opportunity to check back and take our hand to SD. Two, given a sufficiently stationy opponent, we can get more value from inferior draws and 1pr hands that will never call a river bet where a FD completes.

That said, checking back isn't terrible either imo since it keeps villain's range wide (well, as wide as anyone's limp/call/c-r flop range is), and we may thus be able to show a profit bet or raise-folding on any heart river and calling bets that our check back may have induced by making us look weak.

how when part of the basis of the argument is that raising costs you less then him barreling the turn do you not consider that he doesn't flat 100%? He can't shove the flop, he can't donk the turn?

There's no point discussing what didn't happen? That's just silly. I'm discussing why I don't like the flop 3bet. We didn't know he'd flat when we made it, so the discussion is completely relevant.

You're trying to say that 3betting the flop gives you a river for cheaper than you could call most turn bets. But, it completely ignores all other scenarios (which happen to be all scenarios that are bad for you). Even if it's not what happened, doesn't mean it's not an argument against your strange thought process.