Hero has only been in the hand for a few hands but V1 was active. He had a set of 3s on an A345 board that he folded, other guy showed AK which seemed to tilt him. Next hand he playef 83s from early position, rivered a flush, and tanked when facing a bet and finally decided to ship, so he doesnt seem super out of line post flop but idk what his bluffing looks like.
Straddled pot, V1 makes it $12 minraise.
Hero calls with 8d7d
V2 calls from straddle.
Flop 8c6s6c ($36)
Hero checks (maybe i should donk here???), v2 checks, v1 bets $25, hero calls (raise??? I dont know), v2 folds
Turn Td ($86), i check V1 bets $50, hero calls (so this is the only street i feel good about, im putting him on overpair, AT, 6x, 6 outs to stack most of his range, another 3 outs vs some of his range, maybe he is bluffing and will give up on river)
River Kc ($186) hero checks (bluff????) V1 bets $100 (probably a fold at this point but maybe bluff raise? Hero call?)
On the river what does he represent? Seems like 6x or AK bluffed until the river and then overplayed his tptk. Maybe he was semibluffing the whole time? Seems like he doesnt represent much on the river, which is the only reason im thinking hero call but yeah seems like i shouldve either bet out river or folded really. Im representing FD pretty well.
Really not convinced playing OOP to the raiser in what will at most be a 3way pot is ever going to be profitable, even if it is for fairly cheap preflop. I'd fold preflop.
I would probably donk the flop. It's a mix of protecting my equity if I'm good / possibly getting worse hands to call (there are draws). I'd probably go no more than $20. As played (checking) V1 hasn't gotten out-of-line yet postflop, although 3way I guess he could be cbetting air, and I'm guessing he'll typically shut down on the turn if called? Meh.
Even the turn is meh. We're only getting ~2.5:1, we'll be OOP (hard to get paid off on the river), we have no idea what outs (if any) are clean, etc.
Even though he probably isn't repping much and a lot of passive players auto checkback TP type hands, I'd probably still fold the river.
Playing OOP is hard, and preflop set us up for that difficult situation, where we kinda turned into a calling station just dumping chips into the pot OOP with a mediocre hand (in general, we're trying to capitalize on players who do this, not become one ourselves).
I would probably just check fold the flop 3 handed. We dont even have a back door flush draw. We beat almost no value hands and any draws we get value from could make us fold the best hand. I probably call if im in position.
NH. Folding 87s in the BB is out of the question here. Flop is a completely standard x/c, turn is a x/c, river is a fold, NH. You could consider turning your hand into a bluff on non-club rivers or maybe even on the turn if you thought V1 was getting out of line with his barreling, although hand is probably too strong to do such a thing OTT.
Let's say you donk out $20-$25. What do you do on the turn?
The preflop minraise is typically just a juicing raise with a very speculative hand that can often just check behind on the flop (especially multiway), which is why I'd prefer the donk to protect my hand if it is good (in a pot that currently has 9bbs, taking it down now is a good result). If I get called, I'd probably check/fold the turn, and if the turn checks thru I'd probably check/bluffcatch the river (depending on how things ran out).
I probably fold on turn. He's PFR and has now bet three streets. River completes the obvious flush and he still bets. I don't like calling turn and folding river but in this spot I think I fold river even after calling turn. We're basically calling and hoping he was just firing two barrels, which is why calling turn in the first place is borderline.
Gobbledygeek, I get the line postflop. makes some amount of sense. Id call it the standard/ABC/playing the cards face up line. Donk bets indicate weak made hand, which is exactly what i have, but not concealing my hand vs a fish isnt necessarily a big deal. I nearly never donk bet, so not a line i really considered.
Straightfloosh, ok, so I get it except the "bluff non clubs". Why wouldnt I bluff the clubs instead? ive played it exactly like a draw, and he has played it exactly like a made hand. Are you putting him on primarily FDs here for some reason?
Seems like consensus is to fold turn. Id need $200 of additional equity from somewhere beyond direct odds to my 6 outs. I figure i got at least $150 of it on implied odds from sometimes stacking 6x and JJ+ ($150 would mean he gets all in with the losing hand 37%. Id pit it a bit higher, but there is also reverse implied odds) and maybe a bit more on him giving up with a bluff and losing (10%? 20%? so $18-36). I could make up the difference if river has an EV+ bluff.
which brings me to...whether you agree with the journey Ive taken, should i have bluffed out the river? $100 to win $186 so need him to fold the winning hand (which could include hands that wouldve bluffed river) 35% to be EV+. Based on his hand range, id say yes. I fogured him to call an all in river overbet 37% when i hit my other hand, I figure he calls more often here, maybe 50%, but not 65%+. 50% call would be $43 of equity on flushes, still probably not quite enough to call on the turn.
Pre and flop are good. I'm very tempted to c/r the turn. You pick up a little equity. A c/r reps a six, you have flush bluffs outs, four straight bluff outs, and 6 real outs. I think you can make it $125-150 and bomb favorable rivers.
He seems a bit scared money on the river, so I'm more interested in a bluff check-raise on the river than against most llsnl opponents. Villain should check back most hands when the flush and overcard hit. He's got to put you on a club draw. He shouldn't have very many bluffs left in his range. Seems more like a bet-fold for river value. I normally need more than a few hands to make this read. Nothing wrong with a sigh fold since he's basically an unknown.
