1/3 river bluff spot? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1/3 river bluff spot?

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06-12-2017 , 03:49 AM

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

Villain (EP): just sat ($300)
Hero (SB): ($600)

Straddled pot. Villain limps, someone else limps. Hero makes it $33 with A

. Both limpers call.

Flop: Q

($104)

Hero bets $45. Villain calls other guy folds.

Turn: 4

($194)

Hero checks. Villain checks.

River: J

($194)

Hero checks. Villain bets $45.

He's got about $175 behind. Can't put him on anything strong after checking back turn and betting < 1/4 pot on river. Clearly my hand has no SDV. If I shove I risk about the pot to win the pot so it only needs to work half the time. Do it?

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06-12-2017 , 04:17 AM

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Your c/r would make no sense as you're never checking the nut flush or whatever flush twice.

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06-12-2017 , 05:56 AM

CWsports

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,644

I highly disagree that 2nd pair top kicker has no showdown value on this board with how the hand played out. Our hand only has to be good here about 15% of the time to make this call correct.

Last edited by CWsports; 06-12-2017 at 06:01 AM.

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06-12-2017 , 08:44 AM

dmccoy87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 647

I don't like it. It doesn't represent a flush well, and there are no straights. So what does it rep? A binked J for a set? Some sort of strangely played Q? (Which villain may have.) In this spot I'd mostly call you with queens.

Also, you don't need to do this move. Jacks has SDV as villain can do this with plenty of hands you beat. Just call and look him up.

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

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06-12-2017 , 10:54 AM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,772

If you know this guy will fold a strong Q or two pair, small flush, etc., a raise might work, but I probably just call until I know my villain better. You do have showdown value.

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06-12-2017 , 11:03 AM

MIB211

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 3,010

Agree with others. Hand is way too good to turn into a bluff and I don't understand why you don't think you have any SDV. The only hands you're behind are top pair+. You have no reason to believe you can get V off of a hand that good. Call and lose a lot but win enough to make it worthwhile

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06-12-2017 , 11:21 AM

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

I wouldn't be blowing up this pot pre OOP w AJo. There's only 3 people who can call your raise so it's not like you need to thin the field. why not make it something more standard?

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06-12-2017 , 11:24 AM

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

I also don't think there's much SDV given the line. There's just no real way for him to call the flop with a naked J since we have the Jc, the flush gets there, there's no straight draws so he couldn't have bricked anything, and it's not a blocker bet with 3rd pair or something since he's closing the action. I'd expect him to have some Q like every time.

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06-12-2017 , 11:25 AM

water69

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 560

In theory it's a fine call, but I think this is a live poker spot where you can play very exploitably and save yourself $45.

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06-12-2017 , 02:07 PM

#10

atsuss33

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 191

Quote:

Originally Posted by water69

I agree with water69 on all parts. If V had a flush draw, he is likely betting the turn. If he flopped middle or bottom pair, he has SDV and therefore doesn't make sense to bet. I only see him holding Qx.

I also agree with water69's disagreement with hero's raise pre.

Overall, not the worst call to make OTR, but I would expect to be beat the majority of the time.

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06-12-2017 , 02:31 PM

#11

rus5267

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 246

When I see a villain make this bet, they are usually trying to get a call with the very close to the nuts. The price is so low it works a lot. I don't think a raise works here without holding the nut club.

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06-12-2017 , 04:53 PM

#12

LordRiverRat

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,675

Yeah club blocker definitely makes me think it's a good spot but based on comments here maybe not so much. Obviously to a good player it doesn't make sense for me to check turn and river with flush unless I'm going out of my way to trap but he's not a good player. A bad spot for a bluff regardless without A

. And with A

bet bet shove is probably better anyways.

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06-13-2017 , 03:04 AM

#13

Limpfoldjj

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 144

I don't think it matters too much that we don't rep much. Villain is good for thin value, definitely doesn't have the nuts, and we could punish them for it. Saying we don't rep much is level two thinking when most are on level one. Not a bad spot to bluff but it depends on if we think villain is capable of betting for thin value, capable of folding and out image.

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06-13-2017 , 08:17 AM

#14

dmccoy87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 647

Quote:

Originally Posted by Limpfoldjj

I don't think there are many level 1 thinkers at this level. Level 1 thinkers aren't the people you want to bluff, regardless.

Sent from my VS988 using Tapatalk

Last edited by dmccoy87; 06-13-2017 at 08:18 AM. Reason: I hate typos worse than I hate coppers.

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06-13-2017 , 09:37 AM

#15

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,772

You really need to know how sticky this guy is. Most of the people I play against will not fold a flush, no matter how small. They might fold a Q here, but I don't think they'd fold QJ.

(The story just isn't there for a raise on river, but most people don't realize that, either.)

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06-14-2017 , 09:53 AM

#16

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

This is KQ+, period.

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