1/3, passive table, anyone hardly 3bets

UTG, TAG nit ($1400) raises to $10,
UTG1, fishy young guy ($1500) 3bets to $20,
Hero, MP ($500) calls with 54
MP2 ($500) calls,
BB ($500) calls,
UTG calls.

Flop ($100): T42
Check, UTG1 bets $100, Hero ?

How do we proceed in this hand against UTG1's obvious overpair? Shove? Raise to $250? Call and fold brick turns? Call and shove all turns?

I probably fold pre-flop to the 3bet at a tight/passive table. Too hard to get paid and you really have to hit beautifully to win -- and still so easily dominated. Might call from BTN, but not MP.

Now, it's raise or fold. How much do you like to gamble for >150bb? Will UTG1 fold an over pair?

Did UTG really fold for the extra $10?

^ No, edited OP.

What line do you think might get him to fold an overpair? I think it's very tough imo.


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Fist pump fold pre

I'm folding both streets for reasons Java stated. In general, I'm looking for spots where I already think my opponents are weak to bluff. Getting people to fold overpairs works better when you were the pf raiser. It usually takes several streets of betting as well. Takes a real nit and a nitty image yourself to get an overpair to fold OTF.

This is an easy fold pf. You're not getting the implied odds to call.

On the flop, the UTG+1 announced he's never going to pay you off if you hit your flush. In addition he made a big bet against several villains so he most likely has an over pair as you concluded. The good news is that you're nearly even in equity against his range if nobody else has anything. Therefore, I think a shove is best here. You'll keep everyone else out of the hand and it is possible that he'll just fold.

Cripes you have some deep stacks in your 1/3 NL game, I'm assuming this is not a 100bb max BI game.

I fold preflop. Overall, the 3bet is still for a very lol small amount (my 1/3 NL game typically sees initial opens much larger than $20). But we're only in MP and still have a lotta people left to react behind us, all who could call and have position on us or 3bet (and since a nit opened there's a somewhat decent chance we do get 3bet). This hand has high RIO on every "good" hand it makes, it's not one I'm looking to possibly play OOP where it will be difficult to play especially if the pot goes multiway.

What do we make of fishy's lol minraise preflop and then a huge PSB on this flop? Is it always just an overpair? Or is it leaning towards TT? How is he fishy? Typically I label people fish if they rarely fold and will payoff even when they shouldn't, so in this case I would lean towards just flatting (because against typical people labelled as "fish" we have little FE but huge IO). Another thing fish do is size their bets horrible, so sometimes we can expect to face a lol 1/3 PSB on the turn and easily have the odds to call if we whiff the turn to still realize our equity by the river; although this guy seems to be betting pretty hard on the flop and might just shove the turn, and if we whiff the turn we actually won't have the odds to call and realize our equity (the only downside to flatting the flop, imo).

GcluelessNLnoobG

How in the world can this be a raise vs fold spot when we likely have almost 50% equity getting 2:1 and guy is described as a fish (who could pay us off if we hit, or perhaps do some ******ed turn bet sizing)?

ETA: As I say, the only downside to flatting the flop is if this guy then overships the turn 100% of the time. Even then, if he pays us off the times we hit, a call is still easily profitable even if we have to fold the turn every time we whiff. 28% of the time we hit the turn and make $480 + $80 = $157, minus 72% of the time we whiff and lose $100 = -$72, for an EV of $85. Admittedly, that's assuming he pays us off every time / doesn't counterfeit us on the river, but that's also assuming he never does a ****** bet on the turn too.

Gwe'reallowedtocallinpoker,imoG

I'm not sure how you concluded this?

GamImissingsomething?G

fold pre

fold pre again

fold flop

He's prob calling a big OP to a jam. It's only 380 more to call.

Even fishy players know to be nervous about flushes when their opponent just calls the flop. The best card in the world for us is an off-suit 3. What if the flush does come and he jams? How happy are we about our baby flush? Calling is the worst idea possible (after getting here). Raise and use your FE and/or get to see two cards or just fold this lousy little hand.

Funny, you are assuming he'll pay us off if we hit but also that he won't make a ****** bet on the turn? What kind of fish are you hoping for? If you get to this point, play poker: raise or fold.

Hard to know exactly how often we'll get paid off given that the only description of Villain is "fishy young guy", but that's what we have to go off. There's three words, and one of them is "fishy". So all I can do is draw my own conclusions based on that. And with that, calling is EV. That could change given more accurate Villain information.

ETA: Even if you adjust the EV calc for when he only pays us off on the turn 50% of the time, it's still an EV of $31 (if I've quickly done my math right). I'm too lazy too do the math, but it kinda looks in order to be worse than folding (EV = 0) that this guy would have to be folding like 2/3 of the time, which is anything but "fishy".

GcluelessNLnoobG

What kind of edge are you hoping to get from poker if you are folding both ends of this. If you were in villains seat, are you bet/folding an overpair?

Snap shove! You are FLIPPING vs his range and have a $50 overlay. Hopefully he reads 2p2 and snap folds an overpair or AT, if not, get there

Don't call, don't fold

Certainly dont call pre if you are folding one of your best flops. Calling the flop is bad for your math. Its 2017 and everyone knows what a flush looks like

Yeah, fold pre. We have the whole table still to act, and there is a chance that UTG nit will four-bet.

OTF, I am putting all my money in now. We can spot V an overpair and are still doing ok enough vs. that range. We are doing even better if he can have AdKd or the like. And I really really would like any other flush draws to fold right now.

Not sure how I missed the FD, especially since it's in the title... but yeah, let's get it in as played.

FWIW, I'm not saying shoving ain't EV, I think it clearly is. But as the needle moves along the spectrum to fishy/payoffy from tight/foldy, calling becomes a better option.

GimoG

If the turn brings a 6,5,3,4 non or all the 9 outs you got 21 outs plus an extra out for runner-runner 5 plus an extra one out runner-runner for BDF to the . You got my friend 23 outs extracted from thin air if you know how work with them. That's the question. Plus BD-8&9 or BD-J&Q that puts 3 to a str8 and that's one out each. So we got 25 outs. I can give you more outs if you need but I'm in a hurry right now for work. Today it's gonna be full of action and I'm not putting money in the pot unless I got T2P+. Today I'm not playing any kind of TP hands.

Well, I obv shoved and he called with KK and held.

I'm wondering if I should have raised to $250 to look like a set.

Shove sets here too

Folding flop is just lol. Shoving is +EV even if he never folds. Unless you're worried about getting it in 3-ways with a dominating flush draw and overpair?

Theory wise and if there's history, yes. But in general, do sets really shove here? They want max value so they're either just calling or raising to like $220-250. Maybe that has more FE.

This is a weird 3-bet size that I usually don't see in my games. When this happens to me, I usually think about implied and RIO and regretfully let go PF.

As played, I think I would be happy with a combo draw, but really, I would want to have flopped trips to go to the felt. Are we actually happy in this spot if the flop is all diamonds? Even with the A in the flop?

It's all just too RIOish for me, and I think I find a fold, AP. Change the T to the A and I think I go with it.

I'd never go crazy if there were 3 diamonds on the flop, because then, when I'm called, I expect to be against a higher flush fairly often. Here, it's different though. I'm trying to leverage my fold equity against an obvious overpair while hoping that the players behind me don't have a set, which is the only hand they can call my shove with.

Problem is, my shove looks like a FD to a thinking V. So he is not likely to fold the OP if he feels like gambling.

In his psychology book, Schoonmaker writes about a player in the film The Cincinnati Kid, who claimed he was making better plays than the others, but he lost because they were too stupid to play the way that they should.

I guess it's better to lose to stupid people, because then it's easier to recover.

So I've been away from poker playing and discussion for several years now, and am playing a bit of live poker since there is a new casino nearby (MGM nat'l harbor), but used to play a lot of NL 1/2 6max back in the day (party, stars, ub, full tilt). That's my background or context or whatever.

Anyway, there is so much great advice on the LLSNL board, but I'm baffled as to how this is not an obvious flat call on the flop. And it seems common advice on similar hands on this board to do something other than flat call on these sorts of flops.

Maybe I'm missing something, but this does not seem complicated:

1) your equity here is great (probably about 45% against UTG & UTG1 combined) besides hitting a flush, you can easily win big with 2p or trips. So folding is just out of the question, shoving is not, but I think flatting is better.

2) by flatting, you encourage calls behind and honestly whatever happens is fine. Literally whatever:

a) folded back to UTG1 (you got 2 to 1 odds with > 33% equity)
b) one or more calls, no raises
c) some mix of calls and raises that leaves this a multi-way all-in

In all cases you equity is better than your direct odds, often much greater. So you don't even need to get paid off post flop (tho often you will).

Sometimes you're against TT or a higher flush draw, but them's the breaks and not that often and you aren't even in terrible shape against either of those hands.

An important point here is that UTG & UTG1 are playing face up compared to hero and it's much easier to play against them on later streets.

And of course, fold pre.