No, it's not. Don't play for a big pot, multiway, OOP without the best hand.

Let's say you have 3 people with equity of 40%, 50%, and 10% on the flop. The first and second person are happy to jack up the flop as much as possible. The third person is not.

As far as the flop play goes, whether you have 40% or 50% doesn't really matter that much. "best hand" is meaningless here. In a 3-way flop, your equity is either > 33% or < 33%.

This sort of thing is so common in limit poker where you see multi-way pots capped b/c the best hand and second best hand are stealing money from everyone else. But it only gets capped b/c the second best hand also wants to jack it up.

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting that hand play on turn & river is not also important (and more so than in limit obv), but just the same you can't forget the basics of direct odds on the flop.

On this flop, against an overpair and a big FD, hero's hand has less than 17% equity. You can't use an assumption to prove itself.

Honestly, I'd like flatting more if the cbet was slightly smaller leaving some room for turn/river play.

Here, he's betting $100 into a $100 pot, which makes the pot $300 if I call, leaving behind only $380 effectively. A lot of the time, I'm going to whiff turn, he's going to bet $200, and I'm going to have to fold without seeing the river and surrendering my equity.

Moreover, if the turn brings the flush, he's going to check/fold often and I'm never going to be able to stack him. Basically, my hand plays face-up once I call the flop. The only concealed outs are 4/5.

Therefore, I want to play this like a set rather than a FD, and raise it up.





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Yeah, I didn't really address that. Good point! I think if you call and it is folded all the way around, that's the worst outcome, but it's still not terrible. But this is 5-way!!! Even ignoring the limpers (who might call with a T), it seems pretty likely we'll get a call or x/r from UTG. I'm basing a lot of this on the fact that UTG & UTG1 have some mix of cards which are JJ+/AQ+.

But yeah, of course you'd like this to be all-in on the flop, I'm just leaning towards letting UTG do it (or possibly someone else). If you were closing the action here, push of course. But in this case there are 3 yet to act, including one who could easily have an overpair.

Obv if he checks to you and you bet a turn flush card, you're representing a flush but you still make some amount of money. You think an overpair just gives up here? He could also have A or K too. The 5 outs to 2p/trips is pretty valuable also. You should stack him in most of those cases, right?

Agreed this sucks against an overcard flush draw. Also against TT. But there are only 5 combos of TT/AKdd/AQdd and way way more hands in villains range than that (for both UTG & UTG1).

It's impossible for any villain to hold a lower flush draw.

Most agree that the 3-bettor has an overpair.

We're in good shape against an over-pair. We're in good shape against a flush draw. The problematic part is that it's multi-way and we're OOP.

Against both AQ and JJ, we would actually have better equity moving in preflop, believe it or not.

Yes, b/c it sucks if UTG has AKdd or AQdd while the other guy has an overpair. It sucks pre-flop and on the flop.

The point is that neither of them is very likely to have the NFD. Of course depends on the expected range. Much more likely if you think non-pair range includes AKo & AQo. If you think only AKs & AQs are possible, then better flush draw becomes much more likely obv.

In this case, I assume AKo is included but maybe not AQo. But just including AKo means only 1 in 16 AK is a problem for you.

There are 4 players involved in the hand. It seems as if we should include the NFD in the range of the player who led the flop. It seems as if we should include overpairs to our 44 in the ranges of all of them.

When betting for value, the relevant range is the range that will continue.

We do not want anyone to call...first of all

Secondly the chances of getting an overcall are so low it doesnt matter. He is betting pot OOP and everyone knows what he has. The board is dry. We literally have the only calling hand besides Adxd, which we want to fold. The worst thing we can do is price in a higher FD

We want all other hands to FOLD to guarantee our profit

Just think of this spot as $50 guaranteed money, profit booked with the added benefit of high variance.

You can book a profit here AND push variance, a gamblers dream scenario

This and the rest of your post seem gibberish to me.

1. We price in a better FD no matter what we do.
2. Obv. anyone with a set is continuing no matter what we do.
3. Yesterday I 3-bet PF with KK, 3-bet to $42 in a 1-2 game and got one caller. OTF of 854cc, the caller, OOP, led into me holding Q J So apparently some people in these games get themselves pot committed in spots where I wouldn't. We're up against a nit who called a 3-bet OOP, a fish, and someone with no read.

Trust me. These players were way too nitty to call the $100 bet with TP or a weak overpair like TT/JJ. If someone calls the cbet after I call, it's with a better FD, slowplayed set only. I don't know why you think UTG caught any piece of the flop to tag along, he was a nit who'd fold even QQ in that spot sometimes as UTG1 is repping KK/AA by betting pot on the flop.

This is more info than in the OP. I dunno, UTG1 is described as fishy and I don't see why UTG isn't fairly likely to have KK/AA since he raised from UNDER THE GUN and called a 3bet. Based on OP I expect sometimes you see something like UTG1 having QQ/JJ and UTG re-raising with AA/KK or at least calling. And I expect sometimes UTG does fold. Just saying, I don't automatically expect a fold from UTG just b/c he checked and UTG1 potted.

Anyway, that's how I read the OP. Maybe you elaborated on the reads later but I don't remember. I'm not questioning your read, I'm just interpreting the OP to the best of my ability.

I think That's the biggest issue ITT. How many callers do we (should we) expect if we move in?

UTG1 only if nobody behind has a set.

Cmon, you think UTG flats a min3b with AA/KK after 4 players are in? Wishful thinking.

Yeah, good point. Seems to rule out AA, I dunno about KK tho? And you wee uncertain that he would fold QQ. In any event, I see your point (and agree) that UTG is unlikely to x/r with KK/QQ but calling is still possible if you call but not if you raise.

You seem annoyed in any event, I am done here. Was just offering my thoughts FWIW.

Exactly; we're absolutely fine with going very multiway to the turn so long as our hand (which it should be pretty clear is drawing) is sucking up enough equity. Obviously if someone has a better flush draw (which is why we shouldn't be playing preflop) we'd rather fold them out, but if we're calling preflop then I don't think we should concern ourselves with that now.

Overall, I still think most of this boils down to our FE vs IO, and given results it is pretty clear we didn't have much FE against this fishy opponent (and yet probably had IO). Shoving is obviously +EV; but flatting is better. Against a tight MUBSy non-payoffy opponent, shoving > flatting (although again both are +EV).

GimoG

Well, in this case, we don't seem to be getting the right odds to take one card off and fold. I.e. in those cases we have lost Sklansky bucks. So we would need to pick up Sklansky bucks on the other branch to make that work.

E.g. "I gotz aces, I call!!!"

So essentially we're saying it's a question of fold equity compared to the value of our hand on the next street. This was discussed by Sklansky and Miller at "Betting yourself off a hand..." If we have decent confidence we can get and overpair to fold, we should probably shove.

How do we not have the right odds to call the flop bet in this case? We're almost flipping on the flop getting 2:1 with $$$$ behind.

GfoldingtheflopisludicrousG

We lose Sklansky bucks every time we call flop and fold turn. So we need an opponent who is willing to lose Sklansky bucks whenever we don't (call flop and fold turn.)

Sure we do in those cases, but you don't think we make up for those times when we make our hand (especially the very disguised ones) or he bets a lol amount on turn / checks?

The question between calling and folding the flop is simply a matter of whether we think calling will be profitable. It certainly seems like it easily profitable to me, unless I'm not giving enough respect to dominating draws / made hands behind us; I'm admittedly probably not factoring those in as much I should, but I still think we should be able to make up for those times when we bink the turn or get a cheap/free river card.

ETA: Our opponent is labelled as "fishy", not "MUBSY folder". I'll let OP decide what his IO are like.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What I'm saying is that if we call the flop we should be confident we can play the turn at +EV. It seems contradictory to believe he will not fold if we make a better hand but will give us a break if we don't.

I don't see any contradiction between us getting paid off (all of the time on a disguised card, some to most of the time on a good card) versus him sometimes freezing up to our flop call and doing a lol "same bet" or whatever when we whiff.

ETA: Although I do understand a little more where you are coming from; I mean, if he never pays off when we hit and always overjams and prices us out when we whiff, then ok.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think this may be the nuts. We can call the flop those times we can count on him checking the turn. ...And that's why we don't want to play this hand OOP.