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Old 05-09-2017, 12:14 PM   #1
SwolyswoND
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1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Hero: (BTN, $430 or so) early 30s WG reg. Been LAGging it up. Opened more than anyone else at the table, 3bet at least three times (and gotten shipped on two of those times, by AA both times). Table is aware I'm capable of bluffing, including on river, as I barreled turn and river in a 3bet pot on an AcXcAdXcXc runout and got looked up by 44c. I don't think V1 was at the table for that particular hand though.

V1: (MP, covers) late 20s/early 30s WG mark. Calls raises with hands like K7o, J3o. Overlimps/min-reraises premiums. Started opening much wider after he luckboxed his way into a decent stack. I'd be surprised if he thought beyond Level 1. I haven't seen him bluff, but nor has he really been in a spot to do so (he's never checked behind on river, always bet himself or was facing a river bet).

OTTH

Two limps to V1, who raises to $15. Folds to Hero on BTN who calls with Q J. Blinds both call, limpers call. 5 ways to flop.

Flop ($70 post drop): Q J 4

Checks to V1 who bets $45. Hero raises to $155. Folds to V1 who calls. Frankly, I had trouble ranging him at this point. I haven't seen him enough to know what he would do with KK/AA facing a big raise. Diamond draws with a pair or gutshot (AK/AJ/AT/JT/KJ etc) are all in his range, I imagine. I don't think he's the type to fold AQ to this raise, unsure on KQ.

Turn ($390): Q.

Jackpot. V1 checks. Hero has about $260 or so behind him. Are we ripping it in now to try to get value from draws (which may have gotten spooked by the board pairing, which is great for Hero's flop raising range) or do we check behind and use position to let him make a mistake on the river?
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Old 05-09-2017, 12:25 PM   #2
MIB211
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

I think you have to bet here. If he had Jx you're not getting any more money from him. If he had Qx or pocket 4s he's calling. If he has a draw he's probably calling, and I'd rather take a 50/50 shot that he folds to a shove with a diamond draw or an OESD than take a 20/80 shot against him hitting.

Not certain about sizing in this spot. I actually like a same bet for $155. He can't fold a draw for that price.
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Old 05-09-2017, 12:46 PM   #3
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

FWIW, I'm not sure I've ever played with a player who hasn't thought beyond level 1 (i.e. "what are my cards"). Even bad regs are often thinking "did you flop a set?" / "did you just turn the flush?". Heck, even bad regs are often thinking on the next level of repping cards. If you think you are truly playing a level 1 opponent, your game is either insanely awesome or you're not giving your opponents enough credit.

I might nit fold preflop. Our hand is easily dominated by a guy who is probably just raising his cards. Yeah, we have position, but our relative position ends up being terrible (first to act after the raiser in a multiway pot). We do have non-short stacks, and it sounds like we're up against a real mark, so calling is probably fine if we don't suck postflop.

SPR is 6. Board is pretty drawy and we'd hate a scare card to slow things down, so I'm also raising the flop.

Turn is both good and bad. If we were coolered on the flop (which, honestly, there is a so-so chance of, hence why folding preflop isn't insane), this is obviously a great card. But it also makes it more difficult to get paid off as now our TP just sucked out. We can still easily get stacks in on the river, although $260 is still a relatively huge bet. Plus we risk yet another scare coming where he convinces himself he beats nothing. Plus if he is on a draw we risk losing value. So I'd bet a lol amount, something like $90.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-09-2017, 12:52 PM   #4
pocketzeroes
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Make a stupid bet. Like $100. It's really transparent, but so are all of your options. Checking looks weird, shoves don't get called by draws, etc.... So I'd bet like $100 simply because most people really hate to fold to a turn bet that's smaller than what they called on the flop.
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Old 05-09-2017, 01:29 PM   #5
Amanaplan
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

It would be a mistake not to shove turn once raising such an ultra-dynamic flop.
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Old 05-09-2017, 01:30 PM   #6
donkatruck
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

There are four kinds of hands we are facing. Two of them are trivial. Two are not, we should focus on the non-trivial ones.

Trivial Hands: These hands will play out same no matter what we do.
1. AJ / TT- type hands--They are not calling much anyway so don't care.
2. JJ / AQ-KQ: These are going all in no matter what. We are sweating between 1 and 3 outs for a cooler.

Non-Trivial Hands:
QT/AA/KK: These hands will almost certainly call some but may fold to a shove. More likely to call it all off over 2 streets.
Draws: These hands will almost certainly call some on turn but may fold to a shove. Will fold all missed rivers.

So, to target the non-trivial hands bet an amount that gives direct odds to draws and hope they hit that Qx/AA/KK will also call. So, like $100-$125 on turn. Rest on river.
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Old 05-09-2017, 02:41 PM   #7
jc315
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

i think this is a very clear jam. when he calls the flop raise, he almost never has Jx except for JdXd.

imo when he calls the flop raise he is much more weighted toward straight hands, like KQ/AQ/QT or combo draws. Doesn't seem like the guy in the mood to fold. Given description, I even expect villain to call off with a naked FD or ovepair. Just ship it in.
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Old 05-09-2017, 02:53 PM   #8
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

For those ripping it all in, I just think we allow him to fold too much given that it looks like we just made trips with our flopped TP and sucked out on him (even with our awesome laggy image).

Gdon'tallowhimtomakeherofolds,imoG
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:02 PM   #9
jc315
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
For those ripping it all in, I just think we allow him to fold too much given that it looks like we just made trips with our flopped TP and sucked out on him (even with our awesome laggy image).

Gdon'tallowhimtomakeherofolds,imoG

Are we that concerned with a villain, who just luckboxed and is opening up a lot who is also not above a level 1 thinker, to be making hero folds? He called a flop raise on a super wet board. He is more weighted toward bigger draws and TP than Jx. He does not sound like the type to fold a big draw.

He also sounds bad enough to call off with an overpair.

He also has Qx some percent of the time as well and is obviously never folding that.

Plenty of hands that call a 2/3 psb jam here


Also there's no way preflop is a fold 150bb deep on the button vs described villain. Or am I spewier than I know?
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:22 PM   #10
Petrucci
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
Are we that concerned with a villain, who just luckboxed and is opening up a lot who is also not above a level 1 thinker, to be making hero folds? He called a flop raise on a super wet board. He is more weighted toward bigger draws and TP than Jx. He does not sound like the type to fold a big draw.

He also sounds bad enough to call off with an overpair.

He also has Qx some percent of the time as well and is obviously never folding that.

Plenty of hands that call a 2/3 psb jam here


Also there's no way preflop is a fold 150bb deep on the button vs described villain. Or am I spewier than I know?

Not at all, easy standard call on the button with suited broadway like QJ suited. Were looking to play a somewhat wide range on the best position at the table, and this hand for sure is one of them.

Also agree turn is a standard ship after villain calls the flopraise, for a variaty of reasons. Combodraws arent folding, Qx arent folding and if he have KK/AA the board might even get worse on the river for him with the flushcard hitting or another J for double paired board.

I am all for trapping with the nizzles in position if the situation calls for it, and give villain a chance to put more money in on the river or make a bluff OOP, but i dont think this spot is appropriate for it. Actually i think we potenial lose ourself huge amount of value by checking or betting small on the turn.
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:47 PM   #11
Keaton
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
For those ripping it all in, I just think we allow him to fold too much given that it looks like we just made trips with our flopped TP and sucked out on him (even with our awesome laggy image).

Gdon'tallowhimtomakeherofolds,imoG
The key issue is that if villain is on any sort of a draw, if we check and they don't hit gin on the river, they are simply going to check/fold the river.

Especially against this particular villain, who seems pretty bad and might not be able to fold an overpair in this spot anyways, I'm just shipping it here which effectively amounts to betting 2/3 of the pot.
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:58 PM   #12
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Keaton View Post
if we check
FWIW, I'm never checking here. Just wondering if a small lol bet is better than a shove. By the river, he'll probably inadvertently think he's now committed with his overpair hands (perhaps even when a terrible scare card comes in). Admittedly, we do perhaps lose value from draws that are willing to get it in here (but at least we get some of that, plus when they hit we get the rest of it).

But yeah, with only a 2/3 PSB left a shove definitely can't be horrible. Course a lot of opponents don't think in terms of PSBs (they just think in terms of $$$, and $260 is a lot).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:20 PM   #13
SwolyswoND
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

For the shove the turn crowd, I had a similar hand happen awhile back that I made a thread on:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...94/?highlight=

In that thread, it seemed the consensus was to check back. Is something different in this instance?
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:20 PM   #14
jc315
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

@gobbledygeek - ah i think you were advocating a check, which seems bad

i think there is a narrow range of hands that fold to a shove but call like $100-150.... but who knows what $1/3 villains are thinking. really think that given board texture, shove is just standard and best.
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:23 PM   #15
dmccoy87
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

I check behind.
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:26 PM   #16
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
For the shove the turn crowd, I had a similar hand happen awhile back that I made a thread on:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...94/?highlight=

In that thread, it seemed the consensus was to check back. Is something different in this instance?
Whew, I had the same response in that thread (i.e. bet stoopid small).

GatleastI'mconsistentlybadG
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:32 PM   #17
jc315
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
For the shove the turn crowd, I had a similar hand happen awhile back that I made a thread on:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...94/?highlight=

In that thread, it seemed the consensus was to check back. Is something different in this instance?
it's not really fair me to say it since i didnt comment on that thread, but i think checking back in that hand is really bad as well. even worse to be honest, as the turn paired the 2nd card and not TP. when villain calls flop raise, he is narrowing range on strong hands. Very easy value bet on the turn. i prob jam that turn as well, but I can get on board with betting smaller there. He may fold AK/AQ to a jam, but would prob never fold to a smaller bet. i lean toward jam but can get on baord with betting smaller.
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Old 05-09-2017, 04:56 PM   #18
kashabrown
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Whew, I had the same response in that thread (i.e. bet stoopid small).

GatleastI'mconsistentlybadG
This is where I lean. Had a similar $2/$5 hand happen to me, I checked, got lucky that the mark hit his draw and I got paid, but afterwards felt it was the wrong play and talked about it with a good reg friend off table, he chastised me, knowing the particular mark, but figured since this was relevant to the hand I played, I would bore you guys with my thoughts.

Where I play, a lol $90 bet would almost anyways get called, or in the case of a Combo draw or a Q, raised.

I wouldn't check. Ripping it in is too much of a risk of folding imo.

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Old 05-09-2017, 05:04 PM   #19
Keaton
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
FWIW, I'm never checking here. Just wondering if a small lol bet is better than a shove. By the river, he'll probably inadvertently think he's now committed with his overpair hands (perhaps even when a terrible scare card comes in). Admittedly, we do perhaps lose value from draws that are willing to get it in here (but at least we get some of that, plus when they hit we get the rest of it).

But yeah, with only a 2/3 PSB left a shove definitely can't be horrible. Course a lot of opponents don't think in terms of PSBs (they just think in terms of $$$, and $260 is a lot).

GcluelessNLnoobG
That's fair, and I also agree a smallish bet isn't bad. I hate checking here but betting $100 or so is ok. Though if villain has an overpair, he might interpret the shove as a semi-bluff and call it off. Either way, I agree that a smaller bet or a shove is far and away better than a check behind.
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Old 05-09-2017, 05:08 PM   #20
Rich Checkmaker
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

bet $100-$130 is the right answer against an opponent who is thinking on level 1. you price him in with his draws.

and based on villains description a lot of the answers ITT dont make sense. like he'll fold a J or some other pair. he won't. guys dont call raises with J3os to fold turns when the top card pairs.
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Old 05-09-2017, 05:11 PM   #21
Keaton
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
For the shove the turn crowd, I had a similar hand happen awhile back that I made a thread on:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...94/?highlight=

In that thread, it seemed the consensus was to check back. Is something different in this instance?
Villain's range is wider here (in the previous hand, seemed very likely he had a hand like AK or AQ), the board isn't ace high this go around, and villain in this hand seems less able to make a good fold.

Current villain's range has lots of draws, AA, KK, and AQ/KQ, all of which are going to have a hard time folding the turn + he won't put another dollar in on the river if the draws don't hit (and conversely, if he has AA and another diamond hits, he could easily find a fold).

The hands are somewhat similar but there are key differences in terms of the villain's tendencies, villain's range, and the overall board texture.
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Old 05-09-2017, 05:27 PM   #22
spikeraw22
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Semi grunch:

Against described villain checking is horrible.

He'll call with worse made hands and more importantly there are a ton of draws that will call turn but not river. Debate should be on all in vs. sucker bet. I prefer just jamming in the heat of the moment, but sucker bet is probably better vs. his whole range.
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Old 05-09-2017, 06:49 PM   #23
Minatorr
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Just ship it in. Are you seriously betting 1/3 pot with a ten high FD or combo draw?
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Old 05-09-2017, 08:05 PM   #24
Amanaplan
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND View Post
For the shove the turn crowd, I had a similar hand happen awhile back that I made a thread on:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...94/?highlight=

In that thread, it seemed the consensus was to check back. Is something different in this instance?
What everyone seems to be thinking about...

Spoiler:


What everyone should be thinking about...

Spoiler:
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Old 05-09-2017, 09:54 PM   #25
Minatorr
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Re: 1/3 NL: turn the stones. Shove turn or wait until river?

^ Big +1.

If you really want to take your game to a high level, you should be thinking about what you're doing with your range, not with your individual hand. Obv once we figure that out, we can better take more exploitative/+EV lines with individual hands.

Both hands in both threads are a turn jam. It's not close
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