You've really boxed yourself into a corner with all sorts of incongruent reads. You should discount KK+ if he would have minraised those preflop, and you shouldn't be worried about him folding if he enjoys calling with weak hands as much as you've read him. If you weren't planning on shoving the turn blind, you raised way too much on the flop because you left yourself with 2/3 pot when called. You kind of alluded to this when he called your flop raise and you were like wat. You're worried that he's going to put you on a super strong range but claim he's a level 1 thinker.

Let's back this up to the flop. Villain bets and you raise. What's his cbetting range here and what's your raising range?

I like betting 1/5th or 1/4 pot in these spots. Give villains a chance to perceive us as being weak and shove. All in on the river if called.

Ok, we've seen what you are doing with a strong hand in these situations but how are you playing your draws? Let's say you had the best drawing hand you could have here KTdd. How would you play that. I hope you'd raise. Then if you raise your stronger draws too - which you should - then how would you proceed on that turn? Would you shove to get him off an OP or you'd take a free card? Because you should take the same line now.
AP I would be always shoving turn because I'd play the same with my draws for maximum FE and that's how you maximize the profitability of your entire range in these spots. (The sucker bet is just a bit or a nonsense for your range but might be the best play if you are absolutely sure he has an OP.)

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poker is a game of people. this is LIVE LOW STAKE NL. you dont need to be playing ranges against a level 1 opponent. against more savvy competition sure. let the better players at the table see you make this suck bet on the turn and then when you turn the nuts against them you go all-in. they'll think "well if he was nutted he'd make another suck bet" and call. thats how you play poker folks.

+1 to me

All in. We only have to be called at slightly less than 50 percent of the time we have $100 called that makes it the right move.

He won't put you on a boat. He'll call.

This V plays J3o, yet some of you want to discuss balanced ranges.

I either need to smoke more weed before coming onto this forum, or less...no, that certainly can't be it....

This. You guys seriously think he's folding any Qx, KK-AA, and combo draw OTT? Lol. Maybe I need to smoke some weed before I go on these forums.

The most optimal line here just happens to be the balanced line. Betting 1/3 or 1/4 pot in the vast majority of cases is usually pretty suboptimal and not maximizing EV.

He's done the limp/minRR move twice and showed an Ace both times after he took it down post. I don't know if that means he does it every time with QQ+/AK, or if it's only with AA, etc.

Well, I also have three other people to act after me before it gets back to V on the flop. I can't exactly raise small and let everyone come along on a super wet board. It's not HU where I can plan the whole hand out on the flop, I have to adjust based on how the 5-way flop action goes.

Maybe this is more like Level 1.5 thinking, but I imagine many Level 1 thinkers would get spooked and not chase a naked draw for a big bet/shove after the board pairs.

Villain's likely c-bet range: 44, JJ+, AQ, KQ, QJ, all Broadway diamonds, T9dd, Axdd, some other flush draws, perhaps T9/KT no diamonds.

Hero's flop raising range: all sets (I would play some combos of QQ/JJ this way pre), QJ, T9 with or without diamonds, all Broadway diamonds, AQ.

Hmm, probably like $120 or something. If turn was literally any other than a Q or 4 we'd just rip.

Minatorr and other guys thinking about range and such. We have one exact hand vs. like 6 exact hands. This is the best way to play in live poker. If your thoughts were that there are lot of scary river cards etc. then yes that is the counter argument for raptor betting the turn.

But it's just the easiest way to baby stacks in by the river and they always sigh call off the river. This is really specific to this hand though where the Q was just a pretty bad turn for us.

Most of the time you should not get in the habit of babying stacks in bc it loses alot of value that can easily be had by betting big and often with your value. This is a unique spot where we are against the pfr who always has pair combos and we got a turn that locked us in but gives him an exit opportunity.

Definitely don't check. Checking is bad.

I dunno, if Hero held KTdd here (and I would absolutely raise flop with that hand) isn't shoving the turn suicidal against his flop continuing range? In that instance I block most the drawing hands he could have, and his flush draws are more or less eliminated. That leaves him calling the flop raise with value only, mostly AQ/KQ/44/JJ/KK/AA. It would be 12 combos of overpairs that might fold (I don't think we can assume he folds all combos of overpairs), between 18-22 combos of Qx, JJ, 44 that snap us off.

That leads me to think that Hero should be checking behind this turn card with the draw part of his flop raising range, so shouldn't we check behind the top of it as well?

Of course he's not folding Qx. But the money is likely going in on the river when he holds that regardless, so it's more or less moot for that part of his range whether we stick it in OTT or OTR. Same thing goes when he holds KK/AA. If he wasn't going to fold those OTT, there aren't many scare cards that would make him fold them OTR.

So if the issue is moot for that part of his range, the most +EV line would be what extracts the most from the rest of his range, right? Is he more likely to call off on a flush or straight draw on the turn after the board pairs? Or do we make more money from that part of his range by checking behind and: (1) stack him when he hits his draw, when he might not have called a turn bet to see it; and/or (2) he bluffs missed draws OTR some percentage of the time, when he might not have called a turn bet?

I think the problem here is that this is essentially our entire range. The value part of our range is basically a marina at this point.

Anyone who wants to shove this turn against 1/3 villains is just SO bad.

OP, $100 OTT and AI OTR.

So instead of just playing balanced you want to play a guessing game where you have to decide if other players at the table were paying attention and then do the old "he knows that I know that he knows that I know" bs?

For me a lot of it comes down to actual $$$. $260 is a ficken huge bet at 1/3 NL live (it's often more than what a lot of people buy into the game with). If we were somehow in the exact same spot with a 2/3 PSB remaining of like $75, whatever, easy jam. At $260, some people start making folds cuz "I just don't have a $260 hand".

ETA: Just cuz he's loosely calling ~$15 raises preflop with junk like K7o and J3o doesn't mean he's going to hurp durp $430 into a pot postflop especially when the top card on the flop pairs on the turn (at least, nothing in our read suggests this to me). Again, I hardly think shoving is bad; I just don't think it's as slam dunk as the shovers have it as being.

GIthinkit'scloserthaneveryoneismakingoutG

Raptor would shove turn , not just bc it benefits his stupid range (online poker lol), but bc he knows there are just no elasticity issues that can make anything other than shoving a better play.

That's what's being lost in this whole discussion, these baseless assumptions that the table 'mark' who just put in 155 on the flop (more than 6 hands) suddenly has an elastic ck-c range on a non-flush completing turn that requires us to bet less than in order to make more.

Yeah, the board paired, but if he has no consideration for range (the argument for betting less is that he is aware and has thresholds), then he is inelastic and therefore there is no size other than shove that captures more of his stack on average than any other sizing.

It's easily the worst card on the flop to pair from his point of view (unless he has that card, which admittedly he might). It's not like the bottom card on the flop paired, which would be no big deal.

GcluelessboardpairingnoobG

Yup.

It's only exploitable if they exploit it.
If they call drawing dead or close to dead then it's called a good play.

Only for the times he has KK+ not when he has one of a million oesds/fds/combo draws where he can 'still beat trips' when he gets there/fold when he doesn't. There are also now two fds out there now, he may have picked up some equity while at the same time added more river ck-folds for times you bet $100 by way of scarier rivers/more missed draws.

Again, forgetting about what's good for our range, if you want to size-exploit a guy who cares about ranges, then the Q means we have less Qx and he can call more (so we can shove more). If he doesn't care about ranges then he calls nearly always (so we can shove always). Downbetting turn is just allowing the mark to play a river well and a turn better without any access to what his frequencies really are - which is info you must have to consider exploitative sizing.

Guy is just playin' his hand, his opponent calls a Q high flop, a Q comes on the turn, and now he's just going to call a $260 bet?

I'm probably fighting this more than I should (I really don't think a shove is bad, really, I don't, also keeping in mind I'm usually all for getting chips in ASAP especially on drawy boards). I'm just not convinced it's as fistpumpy in this case as others are making it.

GcluelessfistpumpingnoobG

Excellent post.

And like others have pointed out earlier itt: the balanced rangeplay (shove) on this turn just turns out to be the best +EV move in this spot, and people dont need to go on full blown monkeytilt because of that just because the word balance comes up once in a while.

I am all for max exploitative play in LLSNL,its the key to crushing the games, but even so- sometimes the balanced range approach and the exploitative approach merge together at one option.

We're approaching TTHRIC, but what sticks out most (and why I keep spewing posts) is how easy it apparently is for decent players to misplay hands that have 95%+ equity. Like, against a fish/spot like this V, many of us might occasionally get to the turn the same way with, say, AQcs and the turn would just always be a shove w 70-80% equity for value against a near identical range, often expecting to get called, and never betting less.

Countless times, our strongest but still vulnerable hands are stacking off to a fish 76dd, and when they get there, we gladly pay them off knowing full well we got the best of it. Now suddenly, when we have near airtight equity, we want to take the top off and let them realize that equity for less? Not me. If I wanted to see rivers I would've flattted flop.

Results:

Hero shoved. Villain folded K7dd face up.

Again, this comes down to $$$ for most opponents, a lot of them are not thinking in terms of pot odds / PSBs (well, ok, that's not always true, admittedly they'll sometimes wave their hands at the pot, shrug, and say "pot's too big, I have to call"). But, in general, you know what a flush draw is worth at 1/3 NL? About $75. It's not worth $260. That's how most people think.

Gtheresultisnotsurprising,imoG

Really? Didnt villain call off like 150$ on the flop?

Even though i get your point, i think this is classic resultoriented thinking wich 2+2 LLSNL is well known for.