Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
OP, your thought process about what you should have done is mega results oriented. The fact that he runner runnered you with a hand that virtually couldn't win does not mean you should have tried to make him fold.
+1
I'm fine within wanting to bet more on the turn, but it is for pure value and for setting up an easier river shove. We Villain to call with what he has 100% of the time and if he hits a 4 outer, oh well.
ETA: OP, here is some simple math on why we want him to call the turn.
If he folds the turn, our EV is $125 (i.e. we win the pot).
If he calls the turn, and we pay off his $100 bet every single time he hits his 4-outer:
Approx 92% of the time we win $125 + $75 = $184
Approx 8% of the time we lose $75 + $100 = -$14
For a total EV of $170, which is almost 1/3rd more profitable than him folding the turn. If we factor in the times he sometimes pays off a river shove when an A/K falls, him calling the turn becomes even more insanely profitable for us, even if we call his river bet when he gets there every single time.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 07-26-2017 at 11:03 AM.