Hero: (UTG, covers) early 30s WG. A reg, but has no history with players at the table beyond this session. One of the more active players pre (1 of maybe 2 players who has 3! more than once in this 3 hour session), but not really getting out of line. Been caught in some small bluffs but in most big pots have shown down the goods.

Villain (BB, ~$500) mid-late 30s WG. Sat down on Hero's right no more than 2-3 hands ago, so no reads aside from demographics. Overweight, gruff beard, speech mannerisms suggest someone who has a basic grasp of the game, but nothing advanced.

Table has been extremely loose pre. Unstraddled pots that get opened to $20+ routinely get 3-4 callers. Hero has used this knowledge to squeeze twice successfully pre with blocker-type hands like A5s and KJo. Both times Hero took it down pre.

Button straddle is on to $6.

SB calls, Villain in BB calls. Hero in UTG raises to $30 with red KK. (Probably could have gone bigger) Call from UTG +3, call from CO, call from BTN. SB folds. Villain raises to $130. Hero surveys table and no one else appears interested in continuing. Hero has no idea what V's limp/rr range is here, but assigns a standard {JJ+, AK, AQs} type range. Hero sees no need to limit V's continuing range and flats. All others fold.

Flop ($350) 2 3 4

Villain bets $150, leaving just over $200 behind. Hero calls. I think this is a standard flat. Shoving likely folds out AK/AQ, although those may feel committed with the gutshot. Hero's hand likely looks like TT-QQ right now, so I do think V could call a flop shove with worse. But with remaining stack sizes so small, is there a reason to raise here? There aren't that many scare cards/action killers...

Turn ($650) A

Well, except that. V checks. Hero? Plan for rivers?

I like flatting V's 3! pre to keep him wide (a raise there probably folds JJ/QQ), but now on the flop let's GII. Because you flatted his 3! pre I think his JJ/QQ type hands will call the flop jam because your range is wider and could include 99/TT/JJ type hands. You might even get calls from AK/AQ that have not only 2 over cards but the straight draw. Yes not a lot of action killers to come on turn, but not really seeing a lot of upside to not getting it in.

AP, I'd check behind on the turn as nothing worse is going to call. If he bets the river, I'm folding, but if he checks, I think I could find the thinnest of value bets for like 1/5 pot to get QQ/JJ hands to just look you up.

He is never folding. Shove pre shove flop shove now.

Esp shove the flop

How aggro is table? This seems like a perfect table to limp/reraise at, no? We see a raise, then a bunch of calls, and then we print money with a 3bet (either setting up a trivial SPR postflop if called or otherwise taking down a crapload of dead money uncontested).

Looks like Villain has taken the exact line I would have taken. Against a loose opener (which it looks like Hero probably is) I'd probably have a limp/reraise range typical to the one you've posted of JJ+/AK/AQs. But is this most people's limp/reraise range? In general, I think it's *much* tighter.

Is he going to be able to fold AK/QQ preflop? I could perhaps see QQ- folding to a reraise, but doesn't AK just sigh go with it at this point? If so, more reason to reraise. But I don't hate a flat.

As played, I think flop is a standard ship. If he has QQ he can easily put us on JJ-, if he has JJ he can easily put us on TT-, etc. Let's do this thing before a stupid overcard (or 5) comes to kill our action. We flatted preflop to keep in worse hands that would commit on a good flop, and this is exactly what we got.

As played, I think I check back the turn. We don't want QQ- to fold now thinking we've backed into AK and we can still easily get stacks in on the river since it'll only be a 1/3 PSB. I'm hoping he checks the river (cuz I know my hand is best if he does), where I'll then shove. If he bets the river, I guess we have a sigh call given these odds.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Call pre, shove flop. You want V to call with AK/AQ and if he folds those hands that's fine too. Shoving pre doesn't suck either.

agree with most. I like the flat pre. Once he has 300 in the pot almost no way he is folding to 200 more on that flop. If he has AK and folds oh well but you might even get a call from that. As played I check this turn. NOTHING is calling us here that we beat imo. Pray he checks river as that is such a terrible spot we have put ourselves in.

As others have suggested, flop is a clear shove.

If Villain has a hand like AK, they may well be priced into a call. Aside from the Ace outs, any 5 gives them a straight.

With KK vs AK on a 234 flop, you're still over 25% to lose the hand.

this. no shame in going broke with KK for 150 BB versus and unknown.

but just flatting the flop is a little bit too fancy. either shove or fold.

This is the easiest of shoves pre-flop.

Shove flop.

Calling pre is not so great unless he has a ton of air. AA is much better to flat.

Pre seems fine. It's easy enough to GII later in the hand when he raises to $130, so I'm not too concerned with shoving now, especially if someone else might come along.

Flop is ok. I think I'd prefer to just shove for the rest, but whatever. You have 2 streets to get 1/3 pot stacks in. Not a big deal.

The ace complicates things a little, but not much. It doesn't really change my plan as I'm still going to get it in, but I think that's best achieved by checking and seeing if V will do it for you on the river because lots of players have a tough time calling it off on the street an obvious overcard hits. My experience has been that the PF limp/reraise is more often pocket pairs than it is AK hands as players don't like to play AK multiway out of position, so I'm not more worried about being behind now vs on the flop.

Concerning the flat OTF: If you shove for remaining $200, the pot will be $1050 if he calls & Vs call will be 19% of the money in the pot.
His equity with AK/AQ is ~28% vs. KK and ~34% vs. QQ/KK; so there should be no reason for him to fold - but he very well might.

If AK/AQ is what he has, an A comes on the Turn & he bets $200, are you folding? Surely he is pitchin' in his last $200 a certain % of the time with his JJ/QQ, when the ace comes OTT, wouldn't you think?

As played: If a blank comes on the Turn [8], he only has ~16% equity & the math dictates that he should fold [if your hand was face up]; so the likelihood that he does fold is much greater than OTF & does not require an advanced grasp of the game.

If he is sitting on JJ & believes your all-in on the Turn when the 8 is a bluff [with your AKs/o & AQs], it is a coin-flip when the rest of your range is QQ/KK. His equity vs your bluff is ~77%, so, he does not need you to be bluffing very often to warrant calling. Does that require an advanced grasp of the game?

IMO, his range OTT when he checks could very well be JJ - AA, along with AQs+/AKo, giving him 34% equity. Do you find good reason for him to check OOP, OTT, with all of that range?

I raise $200 on top on the Flop.

Why is this, exactly? If we have ranged V properly at JJ+, AK, AQs (and it is likely that we should discount some portion of the AK/AQs part of his range), what good does shoving pre-flop do if it lets him fold JJ, the unpaired part of his range, and maybe even QQ? Why turn Hero's hand face-up when the SPR postflop when we flat is essentially 1.0?

SABR can obviously speak for himself, but i want to chime in on this one too.

Its an easy shove pre because we want to exploit the population tendency at these stakes that extremely few is capable of 3 bet/ folding, and for sure not after putting in over $100 pre at 1/3 stakes. I think most villains sighs and talks to themself a little bit, then they feel emotionally attached to the big pot that is brewin and their pretty AK suited or QQ, then they finally click the call button anyway.

Shoving pre force him to commit his whole stack right now while we are a big fav,without give him the chance of maybe outflopping us or flopping additional equity before he decide to stackoff. If he have AK, he may pull back on flops that he totally whiff and not commit+ the times that he hits his 3 outer and outflops us. While if we shove pre, very likely is that he is willing to commit with AK and telling himself he is flipping against a pair like JJ. We want to give him a chance to level himself.

Plus, if he have JJ/QQ himself wich is a pretty big part of his 3 bet range at this point that we beat- alot of dangerous boards can roll off wich makes villain maybe see ghosts and then deciding not stacking off, wich is a disaster. Like 3 hearts when he have 2 black queens, or the flop comes K or A high. Its more flops than you would think that villain may decide not to commit on.

Count me skeptical that a significantly high portion of LLSNL villains will call a $500+ shove with JJ/QQ/AK simply because they already put in $130. A 4bet shove from Hero for $500+ here would make my hand look exactly like what it is: KK+. There's no indication this guy is a drooler. If we had $350 stacks or so I would be completely in for the shove pre plan.

Why not use our position and let him valueown himself on the flop or attempt to bluff us off our hand that looks like TT-QQ/AK when we flat pre?

I misread/mixed up the stacksizes from another thread, thought we had less for some reason so sorry for that.

But even with bigger stacks i feel like my arguments is valid and relevant to this spot.

Some of the problems with flatting i went through in my last post. There is a decent amount of flops/situations that can occure wich makes him able to get away or to not commit his whole stack, when he may have been ready to stackoff pre to you. Like, i dont think flatting pre is bad by any means and its a +EV line, however i think shoving may be better with KK.

+1

It's all about stack sizes and what stacks your games see going in on a regular basis. $500 stacks do not go in easily at all in my game; my guess is that QQ would routinely be folded face up here. And even AK this deep may think they've priced themselves out against a range of KK+ (whereas they probably would not have they been playing with just $300 stacks).

GimoG

So V, 166bb deep, l/r to 43bb or 25% of his stack, and we want to 4b shove?

LLSNL l/r are overwhelmingly AA. Well over 70% of V's discounted range is AA.

H has no idea of V's range. But V has ~$500... Did he sit with $600? $300? How'd he get to $500 in 2-3 hands?

This hand is a disaster.

What is your 5 bet range in this spot?

If he folds JJ and QQ you are printing money shoving AK here. But since people aren't just going to fold all the time after putting more than 1/4 of their stack pre you need value hands too.

And KK isnt an invincible hand, or even close to it. An ace flops nearly a quarter of the time, which will often kill your action, or make you lose the hand. If villain folds a hand like AKs or AQs pre it's not even that bad.

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We should be concerned about balancing our 5bet range in 100bb BI games (admittedly, I'm making an assumption about the max BI) in 1/3 NL?

Almost all 4bets are for stacks in these games (especially ones where a standard open can easily be for upwards of lol 10x or a straddle is on), so it hardly matters if our 5bet range is only AA the once every two years we encounter a situation where a 4bet isn't for stacks.

Also, like Lapi states, some consideration has to be given to that we're actually up against AA (although with *so* much dead money in the pot I just think it opens up a limp/reraisers range a bit more than normal here).

GimoG

Way to miss the point completely.

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A bit of rough/quick math... I think Hero has like 30-40% equity in the hand preflop.

This is assuming V's range is something like [70% AA, 30% KK-JJ, AK,AQs], which is about 36%.

If we shove pre and get called, its 470/1090 and we need 43% equity. If we shove pre, we do not want to get called.

This is an interesting spot.

I think it's played well so far. It's still a disaster tho.

Check back the turn and call almost all rivers.

Hmm.... So if we're happy to just pick up the pot, then...

We are risking $470 to win (30+90+130)=250. 470/720 is 66%.

Do I have this correct?

So we're hoping V only has AA at most, ~35% of the time here?

Look Lapi, i am all about assigning nutted ranges when that is appropriate with what we know about LLSNL population at 1/3. However in this case,i am not on board with like 70 percent AA in villains range, for some reasons and couple of them is:

1) Its a straddled pot. Wich by my experience this fact alone puts more JJ/QQ and AK planning to limp reraise at this kind of table in villains range. More dead money in straddled pots= more incentive to go for the limp-reraise.

2) Its heaps of dead money after multiple villains calling heros open of $30, wich also very likely widening villains range.

Like, villain at least have heaps of QQ and AK combos here in this spot, possibly also alot of JJ.

If he happens to have AA, nice hand and congratz with the spot of the century. Despite running KK into AA none the less than 3 times in the same game at Ceasars Palace in Vegas this summer, i am having a pretty big boner thinking about this spot.