Petrucci,

You seem to have a problem with reading comprehension.

Dubey seems to understand just fine.

30% includes good hands like KK, ok hands like AQ and spazz hands like XY -- each at their own weighting accordingly inside the 30%. We are not "counting combos" here. We are discounting a range based on random player tendencies.

I believe my position is clear, so until OP adds more information, or reveals the results, I'm about done here.

Wow.

You know that "accounts for" is not the same thing as "consists of".. right?

I just don't think people stick in $130 preflop and fold for $370 more. I'd just shove preflop. They'll convince themselves their committed and hope you have AK, etc, etc.

This hand is not "deep" with the straddle. It's < 100BBs.

Results:

Hero really really wanted to shove river, but chickened out, convinced himself nothing worse calls, and checked back. V proclaims "I have the same pair I started with." Hero fastrolls his KK and MHIG.

I still struggle with this river spot in retrospect. If I were in V's shoes, I would take this exact line post with QQ. I'm frankly not sure how I would play AK because of the gutshot aspect of the flop, because it's not inconceivable Hero could float flop with AK/AQ due to the gutshot equity. But once Hero checks back the turn, he almost never has an ace, so V could be bluffcatching with his Ax hands on the river knowing that Hero likely has 99-KK and might not pay off a river value bet.

tl;dr: I think a value bet is likely best on the river, but maybe something super small like $75. I can't see him not getting curious enough with QQ to make a call for that price.

Petrucci, I have to agree with Dubey here. 30% "including" or "accounting for" spazz hands does not mean that the entire 30% is spazz hands. I think they've consistently said throughout that the 30%, in total, includes JJ-KK, AQ/AK, and a few random spazzes.

I'd try not to beat yourself up too much about it; as I say, I made a very similar mistake my last session out in a *much* smaller pot with a lol amount left for the river. Almost half of me still thinks "he's not going to call with worse" ain't a bad argument for checking back, but betting probably still is best given the way he checked the last two streets.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is really the wrong way to look at things, imo. I don't know how your game plays, but the difference between getting in $500 stacks vs $250 stacks preflop is *soooooo* huge in my game. The fact that there is a straddle on or not means *absolutely nothing* in this regards.

GimoG

I agree with this. 2+2ers might see the straddle being on as effectively halving the # of bbs in stacks, but typical LLSNL villains don't think this way, they think in terms of absolute $. Most villains at a 1/3 table aren't shipping $500+ preflop with less than KK/AA just because a straddle is on which "makes it less than 100 bbs."