Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
Can you explain the merits of going smaller? Is it to try and get called by weaker hands? Is it to make it cheaper if we intended to bet/fold? Or something else?
Okay let's compare what happens when you bet 66% & full-pot on this board texture, just to illustrate the extremity.
It's unlikely 8x is ever folding to a 66% pot bet. Probably one over or two overs plus a gutshot are peeling vs a 66% pot bet. These hands are much more likely to be folding if you pot it.
And when you get x/r'ed when you bet 66% & full-pot, which x'ring range is stronger?
Yes, those are some reasons for a smaller bet sizing than 80%+ on this texture. We get called by weaker hands, and it's cheaper if we intend to b/f say Qd10x.
But this is still a board texture we don't want to bet a lot of our range on, so it makes sense to go with a larger sizing when we do decide to bet. The 66-75% range is good.
You will get raised lighter when you use a smaller bet sizing, which is good for your value range. Let's say you bet 80%-100% pot with TPTK+ here. You're in a really awkward spot with A9/1010 because people are less likely to be bluffing here OTF or making worse value raises when you bet so large. You don't really care about your bluffs (well, your non-nutted/strong ones at least) because you're folding either way to a x/r.
Also, I think by instinct most people aren't going to bet 80%+ pot here with a weak draw like QdTx/QxTd/QJo, so your range is mostly going to be value oriented here when you bet this large. It's pretty easy for attentive players, even fishier players, to exploit this in multiple ways consciously or subconsciously. E.g. folding weak pairs, folding weak draws, have less spaz bluffs in their x/r'ing range, etc.
Some people have really predictable bet sizings, and I remember one time overbet shoving over a large flop c-bet on a super connected board with a set and getting snapped off by QQ.