1/3 Bellagio

Table full of nitty fish, and 1 player who seems to know what he’s doing (although he limps this hand so you never know) This player is deep 150bbs

I’m deep 300+bbs. I have AJo on the btn

Ok player limps. Nit to my right limps. I raise to 18. They both call. Pot: 54

Flop: 3 J 3

They check to me. I bet 40 ok player calls and nit calls. Pot: 174

Turn: Q

Ok player donks into 2 players 80. Nit folds. Hero?

Yes, the bet is under 1/2 pot, but he’s donking into 2 players. Would he really float on the flop, and then bet into 2 people as a bluff, when 1 of us could have the Q? I feel his range here is the Q, KJ, QJ, and maybe some high pps 88-1010, (but I actually don’t even think so).

Giving his position would help here. If he is truly a good player, he will be less inclined to limp anything UTG. If he overlimps, his range could be much stronger. Without this information, it is harder to define his range. So, without being able to narrow his range, what do we know? You are right in saying that his donk range on the turn is nuttish. You, as the PFR are likely to slow down and he doesn't want this. Leading the turn will look terrible but I would give this player credit for a monster when he does this. I suppose that a monster SDFD is possible but we don't have suits to determine this. Please let us know if there was a FD possible.

Your 300bigs deep, this is deep, he can have any 2 cards at the moment, one thing we know is that his $80 turn lead looks quite strong after you led almost 85% psb on the flop and someone overcalled, for v to lead here he has to have a 3 or Q, I don't think you beat much that v can flat flop and lead into 2 players ,

Why so big on the flop? I would bet 30 or even 25. You want hands like ace high and 66 to call as well and also to balance your bluff sizing assuming it matters at that table. As played it really depends on the table dynamics. On one hand, it's a less than half pot bet which is often done by fish to see where they're at. On the other hand, is $80 on the turn a big bet for your table or does that happen often? If the table is nitty the $80 bet is more likely to mean business and you should consider a fold on the turn and also should size down on the flop. If it's an action table definitely take a river in position and re-evaluate.

EDIT: Just re-read your OP. Why are they nitty? Are they playing as tight as you preflop? If so then villain is even less likely to have a 3x hand. I think I still call because of the bet sizing. The only hand you were beating that now beats you is QJ (I'm assuming this "ok" player isn't limping AQ). Really shouldn't change much. Otherwise he has one combo of 33 and two combos of A3s.

Ask yourself this. If it were checked to you would you fire another street for thin value?

Hard to imagine what v could possibly have that you beat. There's no way he does this with like KJ. He's going to have QJs, A3s, 33 and not much else.

Yes, my mistake for not posting. The flop had 2 spades. I bet big to charge the draws and because I had been c-betting pretty much every flop so I was hoping it would look bluffy and get calls when I was ahead. This fact that I felt I looked bluffy was also why I considered calling, but in the end I folded.

He could have picked up a spade combo draw then (KTss, T9ss) but it's not many combos and he has a lot of outs if he has that. Overall a pretty easy fold.

Smells like A3ss to me. EZ fold

I'm having a little trouble resolving "nitty" and "fish"; nits, at worse, probably break even (most do better than that), so I'm not exactly seeing where our money is coming from, especially versus a table of them (where a group of nits will likely slaughter any attempt at running them over collectively). Gotta work on your table selection, imo.

I'm ok with preflop.

I also lean towards a cbet here (our hand is likely good but it is vulnerable to some overcards that we don't want to be giving away for free) but I don't think there is any reason to bet so large on this bone dry board. I'd likely go $25. ETA: Even the presence of a flush draw against 2 people isn't really reason enough to go big against solid opponents (as they simply won't have the flush draw enough and we're really just trying to eke out a bet against their 2 outers).

When both a good player and a nit calls, I think I might be done with the hand. When the good player donks into both players (including a nit) on the turn, I'm out.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I like the c bet although I’d prob bet closer to $50.

If I’m playing my best I probably fold to the lead on the turn. Do you have anymore info on this player? If this is a player who can make some moves I like a call on the turn and look for a call on the river. I can see QJ in this villains range so I’d much prefer a fold readless. Also, don’t know what kind of nit calls such a large c bet on the flop and folds turn here. Your player evaluations might be off a little.

Yes


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Players bluff lead a blank turn on a paired board into 2 people approximately never.

Feels like a 3 most of the time, maybe a queen, although I don't know how many Qs he calls flop with.

Easy fold.

An overcard is no blank. I don't understand how no one ITT has considered that villain could be leading with a worse Jx to find out where he's at. It's not like he bombed it.

If the turn was an actual blank like a 5 are you guys folding? Q really doesn't change anything other than QJ.

Yes, I am folding almost any turn lead here.

How often does someone check call flop and lead turn into 2 players with a worse jack or middle pair? I stand by my assessment of approximately never, unless V is a verified unthinking aggro. Ok, maybe I'd call a strange quarter pot blocking bet.

$80 lead looks like a pure monster hand, value betting because afraid of checking through.