No time to get cute now, shove. As soon as you don't fold on the turn, he knows the weak bet was a fake and you have a very strong hand. On the river he isn't likely to put any more money in the pot unless he draws out on you, and most hands that are raising here have a chance to draw out. The pure bluffs are done with the hand, and even smaller sets and boats are going to fold on the river in the hands of a good player.

bet/3bet flop if possible, as played jam turn. Fire all cannons in this situation with this metagame.

This is was my line of thinking, but a poker friend of mind recommended a flat on the turn since any draw might call the shove for 2 hundred + more while almost all of his air might bluff the river no matter what.

I shoved thinking that if he has any piece down to QT he might call, he insta-folded which makes me think that the weak turn bet did induce a raise from air even though the consensus seems to be to lead strong. It just didn't feel like if I lead out for 3/4 pot on turn that his air would do anything but fold, I could be wrong however.

I think it is very unlikely he bluffs the river. Even if you just call here, your move on the turn says very big hand, something that isn't afraid to get it all in. If he is very aggressive, he might bluff the river if the spade flush come in, but that is also the card that most likely makes his hand.

As it played out, you probably got the most you could. Instant fold is either air, a bare A, a pair under J or a small two pair. Pretty much any hand that knows that it probably can't draw out on you. Shoving here might have cost you some money against the better bare As and small two pair, but against most villains, his range includes a lot of better hands and draws here and shoving would be +EV overall.

The reason the consensus is for playing the hand faster is that when the villain does have a strong hand or a good draw, playing faster gives you a better chance of getting it all in. Villain having some sort of draw here is very likely, and playing OOP, it is hard to make money on the river against a good villain. He will make his bluff percentage balanced so that you can't either always fold or always call when the draw comes in, forcing you to play a guessing game.

Even if you have a read that the villain is weak, I don't like trying to induce a bluff with this draw happy of a board. Villain could easily have a weak straight or flush draw, and he just calls your turn bet rather then raise.

On to the next one...
Hero goes to Bathroom and comes back to find V moved to his left

V hasn't really won a hand and his re-loaded stack is about $450 effective for this hand.

Hero opens for $12 in MP 6 handed with AT
V flats behind, table folds.

Pot is $25, flop comes T74r.
Hero leads 20, V flats.

Q on turn completes rainbow, pot is now $63.
Hero?

I don't like having this guy on my left. Seat change.

I'm not looking to build a huge pot OOP to this guy. I might just go into passive check/calldown mode right on the flop. Otherwise, I'm looking to show weakness on one street that might get some other streets payed off without risking my whole stack. If I do decide to bet the flop, I'm only betting my standardish 1/2 PSB cbet; board is drawless, no need for such a big pot building bet, IMO.

As played, I still like letting aggro players take the lead here, so I probably check/call the turn and value bet the river if he checks behind.

Time to control pot size, you don't have a strong enough hand to build a big pot. Either bet $30 or c/c. If you check and he checks behind, bet the $30 on most rivers. Otherwise, check river and see what he does.

This is the sort of bread and butter situation that comes up a lot and you need to mix your play up here so that your top pairs are not easily readable.

I also noticed that you lead for a higher percentage of the pot this time then on the last hand, when you where stronger and the board more dangerous. This could simply be random, but if you have a tendency to bet bigger when you have medium holdings, smart villains will be able to read your bets.

The board is not drawless. There is no flush draw, but any 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, or J completes one of the possible 8-out straight draws (don't forget 86, the double gutshot). We need to be betting big to deny implied odds on those kinds of hands, since shutting down on all those cards is too weak.

As played I would check/call down. Against this kind of opponent, it seems like if you check to him he'll try to steal with any piece of this board (which does include hands you beat like straight draws and maybe some worse pairs), but if you bet, he could pretty easily bluff-raise you too (unless you think he learned his lesson after the first hand). So that makes bet/folding bad. But betting and then not folding to a raise could leave us paying off a monster with a pretty weak hand. I don't think we are risking giving a weaker hand a free card by checking--I think he'll bet if we check, a lot. So I'd check/call.

Ya, you're right, a lot of middling cards complete straights. But I just think a flop bet (especially a big one) simply gets us on our way to building a big pot OOP to a tricky player, which I think is a larger error than possibly letting him draw to whatever for free. Not that our flop check is necessarily going to make life much easier if he decides to 3barrel bluff. I think the biggest mistake in this hand is pre preflop; we have a terrible seat and need to get that solved ASAP.

We really can't solve the seat problem

Hero is in seat 2, 3 is filled, V is now in seat 4, 5 and 6 have players. So moving to seats 7,8,9, or 1 doesn't change our relative position unless players sit down in the next few orbits.

Fair enough, but this is still a super easy move to seat 7 so that when the table fills up seats 8, 9 and 1 we'll have much better position on him.

It seems like the majority of posters replying to this thread have said to lead big with the top set, and check or bet small with top pair top kicker. Won't this kind of "size our bets to exactly how strong we are" type of play be easily exploitable? Especially to a competent V like this one?

I really do think that the small bets in hand one induced the raise. I know when I see an unknown player who is likely a fish shoveling big bets into me they often have a monster and any good player should fold, not bluff raise big bets.

If you do it all the time. Against a good player you shouldn't take any line all the time, and the flop is when you need to mix it up the most. However, your big raises should be tilted towards strong hands, and your average size bets tilted towards average hands. The posters here do tend towards being too aggressive and too predictable though. Most people who post in 1/2 are used to playing terrible fish, and tend to play like all villains are terrible fish. Not every villain is that bad.

It may have. The big problem with doing that is that your mostly giving up the chance of getting his whole stack. Slow playing and under betting will often get a single raise/bet out of an opponent, but only one against a good opponent unless they also have a monster hand or good draw. In the long run having a 25% chance of getting all of somebodies $200 dollar stack is worth more then a 75% chance of getting another $50 dollar bet. That is why slow playing should be the exception not the rule. Worse yet, underrepping your hand only tends to work once across multiple hands. Once a villain knows you like to under rep your hands a lot, villain will only raise when really strong or bluffing, and will play more draws since they can chase more cheaply.

That isn't to say you should never slow play, only that it should be the exception. And the first hand you posted is not a good choice for slow playing. It is a rather wet board, with lots of straight and flush possibilities.

GRUNCH.

Flop sizing is fine if you want to induce. I might make it even like 20 to beg for a raise.

Turn sizing is a little small i'd make it 1/2 pot. Regardless once we get raised I think flatting is best. Villains range is mostly air here. not too many cards that can spoil river value if he has a legitimate hand and we look like we have Jx at best.

Effective stack is V's of about $450+.

Hero opens for $12 in MP 6 handed with AT
V flats behind, table folds.

Pot is $25, flop comes T74r.
Hero leads 20, V flats.

Q on turn completes rainbow, pot is now $63.

Hero leads 40, V insta raises to 140, not counting it out just lifting off the top of one of his two ~200 chip stacks.

Hero?

Someone did observe how this boards not drawless, and fwiw V had been showing down a lot of double gapped numbered hands when his air bluffs on the river got called in small pots.