Villain (CO): 50s white man, a bit on the tight side, passive ($400)
Hero (SB): mid 20s Asian, LAG image ($550)

One limper to fish in EP who makes it $6. Someone calls, villain calls. Hero looks down at 87. Not ideal, but everyone in the pot so far has shown signs of weakness. Hero tries to make it $37 but accidentally makes it $42. Original raiser tank folds. Surprisingly CO calls.

Flop: Q73 ($97)

Hero bets $45. I figure vs a fish on this dry flop, relative sizing doesn't matter as much. It's a bloated pot anyways so I don't need as big of a bet relative to the pot to look scary if he has less than Qx. Villain calls.

Turn: 2 ($187)

Hero checks. At this point I feel like it's AQ/KQs type. JJ/TT likely as well. Doubt I can get him off. Could be good sometimes vs FD and he's not betting those so I get a free river. Villain snap checks.

River: K ($187)

Fire? He doesn't have many flushes cause K and Q of spades are out. And it's a backdoor flush. So unless he floated flop with AJ:spade I doubt he ever has a flush really. Probably bets AQ on turn. Looks like JJ/TT. Perfect scare card.

I definitely fire here. Bet size is villain dependent for me in my home game, usually 2/3 pot is what I bet for value and works well when repping hands like this one. I agree that villain seems to have JJ/TT/Qx. I lean towards pocket pair here, although KQ makes sense. I agree AQ more likely to bet the turn.

Betting here will get folds from all those hands, as villain also has to worry that you hit a king even if you didn't make a backdoor flush.

EDIT: Villain could have some Khxh hands that missed flush draws and hit a king on the river that will call a bluff here. This is why I wouldn't 3b from the small blind here, OOP on all streets and all that. I'm sure you know this, and when I do 3b light is with connectors or suited connectors, so nothing wrong with the play imo. Just something I'd rather do in position.

Fold pre. You can wait for better hands to squeeze with than 87o.

A tight passive V calls $6 IP pre, which he'd do fairly wide, but then calls a $36 raise on a $24 pot OOP. That's going to shrink up his range dramatically.

PP are always in it (let's take out QQ for convenience). Let's leave AQ and KQ in. He might also call with a suited ace or suited connectors (maybe including some S1Gs).

Let's say he's got:
A2s+,
76s+,
22 - JJ,
T8s+
KTs
KQ, AQ
and, of course, some fudge factor

To call the flop bet, he's hit the flop somehow. Let's say
set (4 combos)
TP (30 combos -- AQ, KQ, and the flush draws featuring a Q)
flush draw (17 without a Q, another 4 with a Q)
88 - JJ (11: At most 21 combos, likely fewer because smaller ones might fold to the flop bet and larger ones might have raised pre. Let's give him around half of those.)

Turn is a brick and it goes x/x.

River is, as you say, an excellent scare card. You're already beating all the whiffs, which is about 25% of his range, so EV if you check back is a bit less than $50.

OTR, he has around 59 combos in his range:
4 sets (33, 77)
9 2P (KQ)
2 TP (KhJh, KhTh)
18 MP (AQ, QJs, QTs)
12 weak pair (88 - JJ, Ah2h)
14 zip (whiffed flush draws).
some fudge factor combos

You're already beating all the whiffed flushes and Ah2h, so that's 15 of 60 combos. EV for checking back is about 187/4 or $47ish.

Let's say a bet of $100 will get rid of all his mid PP, 11 combos, so he's folding 26 / 59 and EV is around $26, which is less than the EV of checking it back. If V will fold QJs and QTs, he's folding 32 / 59 and the bluff is slightly better than checking back.

This looks like a great bluffing spot, but V's tightness and the action pre and OTF have actually polarized V's range so there's not much in the middle (where he'll win if you check but fold if you bet). If V is weak enough to fold many of his Q's (including some AQ), the bluff is profitable but if he's likely to look you up with any TP, it's not.

I disagree V probably bets AQ on the turn. He's passive and you've shown strength throughout. I think he's very likely to let you continue to take the lead.

against this V, I am definately firing. and at least 2/3 pot size. 155 would be a nice size.

But what was the reaction of the V when he called the flop? Was there hesitation? or did it look like he was sitting on a monster?

lol. we are squeezing for fold value, not hand equity. It doesn't matter what two cards we have.

While I agree with this, wouldn't you rather have some 'equity when called' here? Wouldn't this be a much better spot if they were suited? I thought that was one reason that suited connectors are good squeeze spots here.

lol. And everyone will always fold to your squeeze 100%? So your cards actual equity didn't matter at all? Oh wait, you got called and are now OOP in a bloated pot with 87o. Have some patience, muck the 87o.

I would bet something like $95 on the turn. If he doesn't have QX he's folding, if called give up on the river. As played you're repping AK that missed the flop so definitely bet.

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Poker is not just about hand equity and infinite patience. Table flow and player tendencies have a significant amount of impact on the game as well.

Very good spot to bluff/squeeze.

Yea you nailed it

If we're going to be making moves, I would prefer they would be in position. If people in the hand are horrible postflop, I don't think it would be a crime to just call and see a flop. Overall, we should probably just fold.

Really think our thinking regarding betsizing on the flop is dead on; very nice, imo.

I also give up on the turn and just try to showdown.

I probably give up on the river. Yeah, it's pretty much the perfect scare card to get some hands off their hands. But we have a laggy image and checked the turn on a drawy board; I think those hands look us up so much. And he has a bunch of hands that are destroying us in his range that he owns us on by just passively calling us down like he's doing. Plus, we have a hand that has showdown value; he's never bluffing, so just showdown against his busted flush draws / smaller pairs.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Results:

He showed JJ. Snap folded almost before I could slide out a stack of 18 reds. Interesting how he overcalled a 2x raise with a limper with JJ. I'm very happy how passive 1/3 is. When asked about what I had, I lied and said I had AK.

So you did bet river and he folded and showed?

As happy as you are about how passive 1/3 NL is, it's a double edge sword. You got your money in bad on every street; long term, that's not a great strategy (even though it worked *this* time) and it's not as clear cut as to who is owning who.

GimoG

you should only be squeezing 87s and hands like that, when u include this hand into your range then you are def squeezing to often. Flop size should be $30 bc he will throw away over cards with good equity and will call any size bet on flop with a queen