Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Wow, my initial read of this was auto fold on the flop. The mere presence of two callers after the lead in a 3-bet pot significantly increases the likelihood of at least one 5 to be held. If there were just one call after the donk, then I can see continuing but not two.
I don't see any merit to shoving this flop no matter the number of opponents, especially with the nut blocker in our hand. I think even calling the flop is very marginal with a one pair hand after all that action. Doesn't matter what they actually turned over (which, TBF, was donkalicious), but their range for calling preflop in a 3B pot and calling the weak lead.
Maybe I am turning into a nit though, who knows.
Pretty much agree with this. Someone catching a 5 here is rarely raising. Especially because you 3 bet and are behind them. I doubt I would raise a 5, if I somehow was in that spot.
TT probably folds a fair amount and JJ slightly less as v2. I think they both fold a lot as v3.. They also might have re-raised the $8.
I wouldn't totally discount KK. At least in my games, some people are reluctant to 3 and 4 bet KK. Though, your smaller raise might cause them to do so more often.
Fold is probably best but I'd call. I think there is some chance you are good.
If a H comes on the turn, it might even get checked around because the flush is slowplaying/a little scared of the paired board.
On the turn, the V1 will probably check and any 5 will be forced to speak up, while flush draws and worse PPs will probably be content to check and hope. So the turn should be easy.
Additionally, you might hit. Very small chance, but if you are likely to be in a huge pot and losing only to 5555 and maybe a rivered KKKK. So you're getting something in the area of 10-1 on the $50, when you are behind. Not worth it alone, but enough to factor in for sure.