Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,303
Preflop, you should know what you're doing to a 3b before you raise. Plan the hand!
Also consider how different raise sizes will affect pre and post play. Against this guy, consider just calling on the button so that he can raise and you can then 3b, putting him in the hot spot.
If you're going to raise an amount that leaves you unsure how to handle a reraise, then (if you can) make the amount either more or less so that you have an easier decision.
As played, if you call, there will be 40ish in the pot with 80 behind. If you hit TP (either A or 9-hi brd), will you commit? What do you think V's 3b range is?
A9s has pretty good equity against a strong continuing range: it's about 30% against TT+, AK. With 32 in the pot now (8 + 21 + 3) we need him to fold at least 51% of the time for jamming to be more than breakeven:
Equity if called: 30% * 108 - 70% * 92 = -32
51% fold ==> 51% * 32 - 49% * 32 > 0
TT+, AK has 39 combos, so we need at least 39 combos that he'll 3b/fold. Some people will have that many, some won't. Candidates include hands like AQo, AJo, ATo and smaller PP that aren't happy to gii as a big dog or tiny favorite.
Note that the more you raise, the easier the jam becomes since there's more in the pot. The less you raise, the easier it is to fold. Of course, other factors begin to dominate the decision making when you're either raising small or limping.
In this spot, I'd be inclined to jam pre, but that may say more about me than the spot. I prefer to be the attacker and to have the other players playing pretty square against me. Jamming here is probably either slightly positive or slightly negative so it's a good hand to pretend I'm all tough and macho and won't be pushed around.
As played OTF, I think you can check it back or make a standard bet. Jamming will tend to give lots of money to hands that beat you while letting weaker ones get away. In any case, you should probably be committed. If you're not committed on this flop, calling pre was indeed a clear mistake.