1/3: 99 on JJ2dd flop MW - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Well, let's run numbers, e.g.

A player with AQo has 14% equity in this 4 way pot, and if that is the only player who calls $40 OTF, that player will have 28% equity in a two way pot. So the dollar value of that player's equity goes from $14 to .28*180=$50.5. I.e. that player loses $3.50 by calling $40.

It seems to me we need to be extremely confident in our ability to play the next two streets, to want to pay $40 to extract an additional $3.50. Esp. since we may be OOP for the next two streets.

If we bet pot in this spot, turning our hand into a bluff, that same player with AQo loses $30 by calling.

Last edited by BadlyBeaten; 07-18-2017 at 03:31 PM.

Quote

07-18-2017 , 03:30 PM

#27

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,150

Are we expecting AQo to call the flop? I'm not, I'm just protecting my hand against him and 2 other guys that likely all have junk like this individually (and can't really call a bet), and yet combined probably have a decent number of outs against me (if I'm ahead).

Agree that being OOP against a guy who is capable of doing this and putting in tough situations ain't great (although the guy that ended up calling doesn't sound like that guy), which is why I don't raise preflop.

GcluelessNLnoobG