This is why I bet bigger on the flop.

A lot of these players will peel the flop light regardless of sizing but view barreling as much more scary. They play loose pre flop because they are bored but know not to be total turn/river stations.

I mean, if we make it super cheap to continue with gutshots, Jx 4x and the like and lose a bet to him on the turn when he improves, are we really gaining much more in equity than having him fold? I can't help thinking this is based on online thinking where we need to be balanced, set up barrels with parts of it, induced action later from aggro players with part of it etc.

I think playing live getting players to make the biggest mistake possible against our actual hand, which I feel is what happens when er bet bigger here.

Anyway, we got our wish, his range is super wide, includes draws and some top pairs that may call so just bet fold again. $50 because I like round numbers.

I bet $65 because I think V will not fold his draw or crappy Q and since our flop bet was so weak and a backdoor FD hit on turn I think V could put us on a FD and talk himself into calling with a weak Q or even AJ. I love betting big on turn and then V says "why so much" and then levels himself into making a horrible call.

Anyways $60 - $65 on turn.

Btw, I HATE the flop bet. If he's calling $18 he's calling $25 easy. You got to be careful showing weakness, as that will invite aggros to raise you. And when they raise you you won't know if they are raising you because they are strong or if because they sense weakness.

to date, there's no reason to think we're not ahead here so I'm betting $55 here, although I would find it hard to call a well sized reraise.

I would have bet $22 to 24 on flop.

I'm betting $50 for the same reasons I bet the flop.

My Mexican intuition is telling me an A or K is is coming on the river and we get donked into.

I too foresee a river K and a BB lead.

a river A + donk bet really wouldn't be too confusing I don't think, would be a fairly easy fold? K10/AJ

With this hand against this V, I think we want to b/f every street. I know three streets with TPGK is generally not a great thing, but this guy fits the profile, imo. 2/3 pot sounds good, so 45 or 50.

For the same reason we should have bet $30 (or $29 to keep our options open) on the flop, we should be betting close to pot once again. I like $65. Villain is a loose-passsive, likes to see rivers---so charge him for the privilege! If he fights back and raises, then, once again, easy fold. The higher the bet-sizing, the more it looks like we are some super-confident barrelling machine and the more likely we are to be called by worse. Also by betting larger on turn, we can get more value from the river, if we're still convinced our TPGK is the best hand. The only hand that will really hurt us is AQ (cause Villain doesn't 3 bet and no scare cards will slow us down). Obviously, weaker Qs, strong Js, OESD, and backdoor FD/combos (e.g KJ/AJ) should still be within Villain's continuation range.

Late to the game.

I would have gone $25 on the flop. It is 5 chips, so it looks a bit random. It is what I'd cbet with AK. Might as well keep our range wide.

On the turn, there are three questions. First, how many streets of value can we get from from the BB with a worse hand. Worse hands are QT-/Jx or the one draw (T9). Obviously we will only get 2 bets out of T9 unless it hits and we will only get it on the turn. I don't think we get 3 streets of value from a worse hand. Hero has been card dead and LLSNL players don't 3 barrel bluff. He has no reason to think that Split is anything but a somewhat nitty player with a move or two.

So that brings up the second question, which is whether we get called more often from betting the turn or the river from a weaker hand. TBH, given how passive he plays, it is better to bet the turn. There are enough scare cards on the river that can lose a bet. He's oop, so he's going to tell you that you're beat either by raising the turn and betting the river.

The final question is how much. As played, I bet 50, keeping with the concept of even stacks. It gets us nice value for the hand after the terrible flop bet.

Finally, if he raises or donk bets the river, it is a fold. It doesn't matter what card comes, he won't make this bet with anything less than KQ and his range is skewed towards hands that just beat Hero. A K or Q doesn't materially improve Hero's relative strength. If he checks, it is a check behind. He'll never call three barrels with worse.

25 is optimal on the flop, 1/2 psb on the turn and river

this is standard bet/fold for value

if you are check/raised you fold

check behind all aces/9's/8's but bet a king but again you are bet/folding

bet/fold again

I would bet $50 on the turn. Stacks are large, so pot commitment isn't becoming an issue. If he has a draw (and this board is fairly drawy), we'd like to charge him for it. However, the real kicker for me in this situation is that villain seems straightforward postflop (i.e. raising his nuttier hands, which he'll do here to protect against the draws, making a bet/fold easy to do) plus passive (which means we're not going to get any value from showing weakness on the turn and then hoping he bluffs into us on the river).

I think checking the turn would be a good play against a more aggressive opponent (one who could put us to a tough decision with a turn check/raise, or could easily bluff into us on the river when we check the turn), or if stacks were such that a turn bet commits stacks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Given villians passive profile I think a bet fold line is best here. I bet 45 to 50. It's hard to believe a hand you are ahead of is going to call much more and you are still charging draws. A more agro villian I might check behind here to induce a river bet from a weaker hand.

A. Bet
B. $15, so if BB flats and UTG check/ships for $58 you can raise-fold $120. It's a little over 25% of ES between Hero and V, but it gives marginally incorrect odds to oesd (115 to 230, exactly 2:1).

Biggest mistake would be to lead full pot, as when UTG ships we can't 3bet.

I would bet 25 on flop and 50 on turn. He's playing a lot of hands so your ahead of most of his range. He likely has something like a worse Q or a J.

This exactly, what is river & action?