I dont like folding sets...

But when I do, its in this exact spot.

The acting, the preflop lines.... All adds up. Go ahead and fumble w math all you want,he has the topset

so we r folding given the same action on the following flops?
1- K95r, K95ss, K95sss
2- Q95r, Q95ss, Q95sss
3- J95r, J95ss, J95sss
4- T95r, T95ss, T95sss

Fixed it for ya.

Lol, he made a quick decision to raise, but then was like "Wait a second, I better pretend like I'm raising for some reason other than the fact that I have the stone cold nuts," so he does a poor acting job of pretending like he only raised because the coin told him to do it? Lol good god is this the nuts.

Btw, am I the only person who thinks we should fold pre? It should take a VERY good reason to cold call 27bb's to play 950bb's deep OOP.

We is deep, his 3bet range is wide (we are ahead of range according to OP), 3bets are very common in the game and because of all that we don't always have to hit a set to win the pot. I think it's a pretty easy call.

I think this line tips the scales for me (and then OP saying he's 3b or folding pre and playing every hand like it's aces helps a bit too )

I admit the acting is a little suspicious and worrisome. But if you have AA in this spot and a "fairly tight" player c/r you, are you going to put out a raise to 400 BBs with the nuts? That gives him the chance to hero fold a hand like, oh I don't know, 9-9.

The acting is scary and he's probably raising no matter what side of the coin he flips. But don't you think he knows this? And possibly counts on his hand looking stronger because of it? It's such a strange spot because being 950 BBs deep effectively doesn't happen very often. It's tough to know if a player is capable of bluffing 400 BBs because when the hell do you ever get the opportunity to bluff 400 BBs? But I think this villain may be capable of it, and if he knows you're not comfortable playing this deep then it's even more likely he'll try to bully.

I like the flat flop / get it in on the turn line.
edit: I'd like that line if you were IP, also just saw you're oop. Not 100% sure what I'd do but I'm def not folding. Jamming the flop probably has him folding everything but AA, but flatting the flop looks so absolutely crazy strong. Although if he's willing to bluff 800 he probably has to continue and shove turn. I guess I still flat then check turn and get it in if he puts any money in on turn.

Wow gross spot considering the whole "show and dance" act...I think he is nutted based your description of villain and this unusual act(usually the nuts here). He has AA and not A9. . I prob fold, but honestly I would have flatted otf and raised the turn. You might have saved yourself 1000 Bb; I don't like calling it off for a 2000BB pot(sounds so absurd just saying it in my head) without the nuts here cuz Cant Imagine a straightforward villain would be doing this without the nuts and knowing you got something you liked otf with no draws out there. He prob puts u on 55 or exactly 99

THIS.

It's a weird spot being so deep in such a crazy game. But against this villain as played .. we're going to the felt with this hand. I'm not thrilled with the spot, but this is more or less exactly what we were looking for pre.

Never, never, never folding 99 pre with 950bb eff. Stack between me and villain. Will actually be opening my 3 and 4 bet range up massively this deep. However, I will agree with u on one thing: this is the nuts in villains hand here

This is not relevant to the discussion. Not to give a spoiler, but the money does all get in the middle. Neither of the players in this hand are making decisions based "scared" money. Also, the average stack at the table is about 500BB, so 950BB is deep but not amazingly deep for this table.

It kinda is just because of the advice u r getting here...
Everybody is saying fold just because this is too much bb's...if this was another 100 or even 200bb eff hand, u will get a bunch of: "Never folding", "Ez call", and "I would leave tracks on the felt because of how fast I shove"

NOTE AFTER RE-READING THIS POST: From what I can tell, APD is a baller, so the litany of questions that ensue are really just trying to get a solid handle on the basic theory behind this hand.


Not to sound dense, but I'm not sure what you mean by "ahead of his range." Do you mean equity-wise? Do you mean our hand plays better in this spot than most of the hands in his range?

And are you listing the fact that we are deep as a reason that we don't have to hit a set to win the pot? I'm not sure how that's the case.

I'm not 100% convinced that preflop is a fold, but I'm having a tough time figuring out what our advantage is in this hand. OOP 950bb's is a MASSIVE advantage obstacle to hurdle and villain's range is pretty balanced, and it seems like villain's going to play in a way that's tough to exploit (he's aggressive when shown weakness, which makes it tough to get to showdown with second pair, and he doesn't payoff light, which is obviously disaster for our implied odds). So of the big three advantages: we're WAAAAAY behind positionally, our skill advantage is meh given how we're likely gonna be setup postflop, and our hand is doing like pretty well against villain's range if we can ever get to showdown lol.

And we're talking about cold calling 26.5bb's. Do we want to invest that much to get ourselves into this marginal of a spot? Exhibit A: We hit middle set on the driest flop in the history of the world, and yet this thread exists.

i like the call pre, i like the chk/raise on flop just because we're OOP and we're DEEP. as played, call flop, chk/raise/call off on turn, other wise jam river. If i'm villain i'm in position with aa, id flat on flop, even if i decided to 3bet on the flop my size would be way smaller.

FWIW, I'm not certain flop is a fold either lol. The acting job just very much justifies the existence of discussing whether or not we could possibly fold here. The fact that this money doesn't mean that much to him certainly makes lesser value hands more possible.

Yeah exactly so it comes down to the unusual act from villain and we have to ask ourselves does villain ever get in 1000bb with 2pr or bottom set and does be know hero will stack off that many BB without a set? Sounds like you guys have some history based on OP; I'd think about the hands you played and what u think he perceives you as and his perceptions of your abilities. Still tho-the act really raises red flags(ESP. A usually non-thespic villain)....was villain drinking or said he did any drugs hat night? If not I'd cringe-fold.