Reads:
SB is an above average player for live 1/2; he is capable of finding a fold when clearly beat, generally selective in his play, but by no means a great player -- even at the 1/2 level. He has been running good, and has not really gotten tricky at any point. His PF raise range is typical to slightly narrower than usual. CO is about average for live 1/2, maybe a tiny bit savvier than that. He has made a few dumb plays, and even considered calling $200 PF with KJs (having invested only $35 already) after someone squeezed. But he is not an idiot. MP is a pretty typical 1/2 live player -- lots of obvious leaks, straightforward play, wide open hand selection. The table has been playing loose/passive preflop, with lots of ill-advised slowplaying postflop, usually followed by big fireworks on the river.

Stacks:
SB: $1000
BB: $200
[Several unimportant players]
MP: $150
[Several unimportant players]
CO: $350
Hero (Button): $330

Hero is dealt 8 7

Pre-Flop:
MP calls $2, 2 other players call $2, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB raises to $12, BB folds, MP calls $12, 1 other player calls $12, CO calls $12, Hero calls $12.

Flop: 8 4 8
SB checks, MP bets $15, other player folds, CO calls $15, Hero raises to $50, SB riffles chips for a minute then raises to $135, MP folds, CO re-raises to $320, Hero _________?

I will reveal later on what I did and what everyone else had. In the mean time, what ranges do you put SB and CO on? Would you have handled the initial flop raise differently than I did? Thanks.

See the turn, if you don't boat, fold. You're behind the SB.

Fold pre-flop.

As played:I like the c-bet, I fold once it gets 3bet OTF easy fold.


Not getting the odds to draw to your.boat and the IO are not big enough.

Seeing the turn would put him all in, eh?

I don't know if I put SB on a set, if he raised PF, and you're saying he has a slightly tighter range, he's probably in the range of TT-QQ and maybe high ace? CO position I'd be more worried about. Probably a mediocre hand. A8 maybe K8.

I'd probably put SB on a flush draw, and maybe put CO on a set with a better kicker.

Thanks for the replies.

1ns71nct - I am curious about your "fold PF" suggestion. Hero is getting 5:1 on a call ($10 to win $54, less $4 rake), and has the button. Two of his opponents have more than 150 BB and have shown that they might overplay overpairs. I know people's playing styles vary, but in my experience this is an absolutely standard call given the odds, the position, the stacks, and the reads. If you remain in the "fold" camp despite that information, I wonder: what is the weakest hand you would call with here? What would you do if you were getting 6 or 7 to 1, as is often the case in these loose live games?

By the time it is back to Hero on the flop, I agree that Hero is not getting the odds to draw to anything. Hero may be drawing to one out and is effectively all in if he calls. The right question in my mind is not whether a draw is properly priced in, but how often Hero's hand is good as things stand right now. There is $582 in the pot ($62 pre-flop plus two $15 flop bets, one $50 flop bet, one $135 flop bet, and one raise of $305) and Hero must call $268 to continue. So if SB folds, Hero needs to be good about one time in three for a call to be right. But from the look of things, SB is going to call, such that Hero must be best a little more often than one time in four.

Keeping those odds in mind, I figured CO was my real problem. Like Mascot, my thinking was that SB had aces or another large overpair. Maybe pocket 4s, but that seemed very unlikely based on his PF raise and generally straightforward to narrow PF raising range. I also don't think he'd want to chase off trips or flush draws with a boat. I also was 99% sure SB did not have an eight in his hand; there was only one left in the deck, so 88 is out, and every other hand including an eight seemed clearly out of his raising range. CO was harder to figure. He flatted the $12 PF, flatted the $15 flop bet, and then suddenly woke up after SB's three-bet. Seemed to me that his range included nut diamond draws, pocket 4s, 8x, and not much more. He has an overpair about 0% of the time, and there's just no way he has air here, as SB seems exceedingly unlikely to fold. I concluded that CO had me outkicked with a better 8. So I folded.

Any reactions to the reasoning above appreciated.

If that doesn't interest you, perhaps this will. Assume SB has QQ (this is what he ultimately had), and that Hero knows this. What do you do then on the flop?

Come on guys, 1st..hero cannot call then fold the turn because he would be put all in.

Next,the cut off flatting then 4betting on the flop makes me not worry about 44 at all and am more inclined to range him on a flush draw, or 89, 8T, J8, A8.

Sb prob has big broadway cards with diamonds on them. Possibly an overpair...however if he's shown big laydowns before, i'd weigh his range to KQs to AJ+ suited stuff.

And if I saw the cutoff overcall 200 pre with kjs like you said, I'm shipping here. Gambling is fun.

You did the right thing IMO. You had to think he had an 8, and you were probably outkicked. I'm glad that I got my reads right on the situation. If you knew he had QQ, I think I would have bet out 1/3-1/2 the pot to really see where he's at. If he calls, you know he's got a high pair/flush draw, then you can determine if you feel like getting sucked out on or not. If he raises, then that might bring up an issue.

Like you and I said though, CO is the more worrysome person of this hand. You did the right things in regards to the CO position.

If you guys had 44, would you bomb this flop, or let everyone come along? So I heavily reduce that in cutoffs range. And its hard for him to have an 8, we've seen him go full retard with kjs bfore....flushdraws rep the bigger part of his range. Ship.

It is a terrible hand to.be limp calling with, I dont mind if it was not raised but here is the problem.

We flop a two pair about 2-4% (cant remember exactly

Trips 1%

A naked straoght draw 10%

You will hit your draw a small % of the time. Do you honestly think this is +ev?

+

If you had x-ray vision, you could see everyone's cards, too. It is a mistake to rerun it knowing what the SB had. Nor does it matter. It was range of hands he would act as he did that you need to consider, not what hand he had this time. I may sound a little harsh, but this is a critical key to getting past basic poker. If you don't get this, you're going to be stuck on a lot of other concepts.

I would bet (raise) enough that the others would have the odds to draw to a flush. A raise to $60-70 seems about right for that purpose, since MP & CO would be getting about 3:1 on a call. If I think the opponents are not contemplating odds very closely, I might put in a slightly smaller bet.

A raise of that size has another nice side effect: it might well incite big 8s (A8, K8,etc.) to jam. Calling seems awful to me, as it gives 8x hands a free shot at sucking out. In live games, players with draws are going to call a raise here; they came to the casino for action. So there is no reason not to get more money in OTF.

Appreciate the honest, unvarnished response. I completely agree that SB's range is what matters; his actual holding, learned later, is irrelevant. I mentioned SB's hand to shift the focus to CO, not to simplify the decision vis-a-vis SB. Obviously, if based on reads & action I felt that SB had QQ (or just a range of AA-JJ or whatever), I would conclude I was good against him. But I'd still have CO -- and his more mysterious range -- to worry about. Seems Mascot & I are on the same page re: CO's range of hands. Do you agree, Venice?

I won't quarrel with your statistics; I assume they are correct. Nonetheless, I think a call is +EV for two reasons.

First, one does not need to make a hand to win. This is particularly true when one has position on all opponents. Sometimes, a flop c-bet will take it down despite having eight high.

Second, and more importantly, Hero will earn pretty decent money when he does hit, but will invest little to nothing when he does not. When Hero makes a hand -- say, a straight, trips, or two pair -- and ends up against a big overpair, Hero will frequently win a lot of money. On the other hand, when Hero whiffs on the flop (which will happen a lot) he invests nothing further. The implied odds, when put together with the immediate 5:1 pre-flop, play a big role here.

I see it as very marginal and I am still not 100% let me do some math.

Grunch,

First off, we should be folding to the raise PF. Not a horrible leak with position and that many callers, but a clear one. OK, that out of the way...

SB's obvious overpair is obvious. Now we just need to figure out how much of CO's range is better 8's, how much is semi-bluffs, and how much is spazz. We know CO has some gambool in him, getting $35 in PF with KJ and considering a call of a shove. We also know he l/c, so basically all Fds in his range are AdTd and below. There are more NFDs than better 8s, and only two combos of 44. There are a million combos of air, but he's not that dumb, so lets just give him one semi air hand (say Ad4x)

We are 74% faves against his NFD, 35% dogs against his better 8s, 23% dogs against his 44s, and a redic 96% fave against his spaz.

Lets say he has 50% NFDs, 35% 8s, 10% 44, and 5% spazz, that would make us about 56% against his range. We are 90% against SB's obvious overpair. If we agree with this range weighting, this is an obvious call. If we think that's too much NFD, it's probably still a call.