Effective stacks: $600.

Villain: ABC, Lvl 2 thinker. Is thinking about what other players could have, but not thinking about what other players think *he* has.

Pre:

SB posts $1, BB posts $2, EP limps $2, MP limps $2, folds to Hero/CO. Hero raises to $12 with A8 Vil/BUT calls $12, SB calls $11, BB calls $10, EP calls $10, MP calls $10

Pot is $72. Six players. Flop: Q62

Checks to Hero, Hero checks, Vil/BUT checks.

Pot is $72. Six players. Turn: Q62Q

Checks to Hero, Hero checks, Vil/BUT bets $30, (making pot $102). Folds to Hero/CO (we are now heads up.) Hero check-raises to $75 ???

No

Seems like v has 77-JJ given the action, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a weak Q. Your sizing definitely will not fold out any of those hands so I hope you are ready to bomb the river and not win that often. I wouldn't advocate correctly giving up on a six-man pot with air and then all of a sudden try to make a big move on the pot.

Never on a paired board. You can't represent anything.

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I'd give up man. There are easier pots to steal than this one. We're six handed on a rainbow board with no straight in sight. Any action from the other five players can beat ace high. If your read/experience with the villain makes you believe you can get him to fold A6 or 67 or TT or whatever you think he has, then go for it. But if it's me, I'll take the $12 loss and find a better spot

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If V is a decent hand reader, he'll suspect you don't have a Q. PFR with a Q is unlikely to check this OTF in LP with five other players.

You might do this with a set, but would you raise with 66 or 22? If you flopped a set of Q, would you then x/r the turn?

OTOH, V's turn bet is really weak looking, 40% of the pot.

If he's thinking about what you have, he might well realize you're kinda FoS here. If you x/r to $75, it's only $45 to call a $177 pot, so he's getting pretty nearly 4:1 on a call. I doubt he'll fold very often here.

I don't think it's a good spot for a x/r bluff, but if you do go for it, I'd make it $100.

I agree with case2. If you go for it, it's gotta be more that $75

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It seems like villains calling range will be pretty inelastic to our bet size (either they believe we have a Q and they're drawing dead or they don't believe us). So we should be able to bluff really small.

That said, I think this is a terrible hand to choose to bluff with. A2 or A6 seem better candidates as we block sets. A6 is possibly too good to bluff with so maybe A2s is the only hand to bluff with here.

Actual results:

Good point. I tend to keep my bluffs in the same range as my other bets in order to avoid having V get suspicious at such a small bet. In this case, at least, suspicion may actually be a good thing, since he has to wonder if we're getting really cutesy with a Q.

You had the best hand dude

On a board this dry, I'd probably size my check/raises for value small too.

If V's folding range is relatively inelastic, shouldn't we exploit by x/r for value larger (when we x/r at all, which I suspect is at most rarely)?

[Obviously, we're not doing this very often against V's that might pick up on what we're doing, so we can avoid the balance quagmire.]

Edit:
The back of my mind, which apparently continued to mull this after I posted it, has just informed me that I'm kinda talking out of both sides of my mouth here.

To bring some order to this, let me explain.
I think IAIN is right that a smaller x/r is better here, if we x/r.

I agree with IAIN that if we want to keep x/r bluffs and x/r value bets about the same, we could pick either smaller for both or larger for both. Which is better I think depends on other factors (projected image, typical V tendencies in the particular game, etc.)

If we can avoid the whole balance quagmire, we should x/r bluff smaller and x/r for value larger.

Yeah balance quagmire sucks.

Probably. So, why let him get a free card?

Because quite often you don't have the best hand and you're never folding better (except AT-AJ)

No,
The first time on the flop (OTF) it looks the Queen was no good for you and on the turn (OTT) you c/r for no purpose like the second Q is gold. Good villains will understand immediately that you don't have a Q because you would have bet it OTF so to make sure an Ace or King don't ruin your Queens. Now OTT when the Q pairs what are you representing? - s Set of 66 or set of 22 on the flop? or an over-pair (OP)? - Why he didn't bet his Q OTF? ... You got to be kidding .. man .. wtf? --- Are you OK?

Your bluff is a train wreak and will be called or even raised by a competent player. The villain has got to ask himself: Why the Q was not bet OTF and why now OTT another Q is OK? - Is he got a Q? - NO! .. would he c/r with a flopped set of 66 or 22 for a full-house (FH)? - No! he (this is you) will just call and lead on the river (OTR). So, the conclusion is you may be desperation bluffing. Even an Ace high hand will be able to take the pot away from you. Your bluff was not planned. You should have lead OTF and look for top card to pair if you want to bluff on that "play".

Or, if you want to bluff like it looks to me you love it: You call his flop bet on anything and look to have the middle card paired. Not the bottom because that is "unbelievable". With the middle card pairing it may work plus you got your own legitimate "outs"

Bluffing has got to have a believable story. But on the other hand if you play with morons and monkeys, I guess may work sometimes but even in that case if the villain is an idiot or a station he will call if he's got any hand.

You may have won the pot, I don't know, but I guess that's your story FoS because this is what you told us. Who knows? .., Anyway, the play was horrible. You have no idea how bluffing works. And I strongly suspect you also have no clue how many "outs" you have OTF and especially OTT in order to make advanced "plays". You may know that a Str8 has 8 outs and a flush has 9 outs, a gutshot 4 and AK has 6. But how about having 26 outs OTT going into the river? - would you like that? ... wtf

Bluffing to prevent him getting a card it's a poor strategy. An amateur thinking at a basic level will often make a bad bluff FoS thinking it's a strong move just like you do in this case. But bluffing well is an advanced skill requiring a very deep understanding of the game. Always remember that.

Right. If you could see his cards and he had worse than A8 then clearly you'd make a raise such that he wouldn't be getting odds to draw to his outs, but in the long run, making these "can't be called by worse and rarely get better to fold" plays will lose money.

Pretty horrible bluff because you only legitimately rep quads lol. Wouldn't do it again if I were you. When bluffing think about actual hands you could have, rather than "eh, he looks weak, 2.5x c/r."

Just no, at 1/2, you can easily get called by a bad player who is holding 67 suited. It's a big no.

Dont be greedy, there are better spots to bluff.