When you say that the only hand Hero beats is 'something like' 54ss, doesn't that mean that 43ss would be in his range too? So isn't that 2 combos of flushes in his range that we beat? I would like to know exactly what range you put villain on that you think Hero isn't good against at least 17% of the time.

I'm harping on this because it's really a big thing - it doesn't matter that we're probably beat, or that villain isn't ever bluffing here. It matters that he could be value raising with the 2nd worst hand and that we're getting really, really good odds. Not only is 43ss possible, but I bet so is 75ss and maybe even 32ss. I think 75ss is a lot more likely than say JTss given action earlier in the hand.

If you had pocket aces (top set) Villain is getting good odds to call this turn bet. What was it meant to accomplish?

Hand 0: 67.525% 67.07% 00.45% 664 4.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 32.475% 32.02% 00.45% 317 4.50 { Js9s }

Obviously the raise is to get a call, and then hero barrels brick rivers.

Which, btw, J9s would fold to.

this is lol bad. what do you think his range is after calling the turn raise? you think he folds brick rivers with most of it?

Hero's line would look amazingly strong, yeah. If you never fold AQ KQ against that line readless, then gl hf to you.

He's not going to call with J-high, for example. Hard-pressed to call with QT, too, when this sized bet is always a thin vbet. You only need him to fold 20% of his range for this to be +eV, btw.

I'm not villain in this hand. It doesn't take much to have a typical LLSNL villain call just plain old jane old three streets of betting with two pair, and the fact that every draw missed will probably be a good enough reason.

Then it's read dependent, because live games have both ridiculously stationy fish, as well as nits who play super straightforward and fold big hands to big bets. It doesn't mean a bluff line is necessarily bad. Everyone who plays live poker and just assume you shouldn't bluff a lot because nobody folds is missing out on a tonne of EV.

I'm not saying her's line is optimal, but I don't see how you can say it's obviously a bad line when it looks so strong.

Unless there are two 7 spades it's unlikely he has 75ss. So to answer your question, 75ss is unlikely.

Preaching to the choir on the bluffing stuff (I did just advocate two different lines for tripling ITT), but we just disagree on FE of that one particular hand. I don't think that a triple here when all draws miss looks THAT strong, and the hand we're trying to get villain to fold has really good absolute hand strength. It's the type of hand where recreational players generally need a really good reason to fold, and I don't see where we're giving them that reason to make what is basically a hero fold for them.

There's not really a theoretical basis for our disagreement, so there's really no way for either of us to definitively prove each other wrong, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.

I do think it's interesting that you think that you have enough FE (enough FDs in his range and two pair thinks our line is sets+ enough) on a blank river to bluff and also think that betting big on a spade river is for value. I should think that villain pretty much always folds two pair on a spade river if our line looks so strong since we're telling a million more hands, and it seems like you think that we're going to see a fair amount of better flushes on a spade river.

Villain bet too small ott to have anything more than 2pr.

And then he flatted the c/r. I bet smallish on a spade river for a crying call from 2pr. Non-spade rivers I'd bet bigger to fold out 2pr pretty easily. I think Villain would fold because the line I took looks like sets and JT all day.

I said "either smaller or bigger". If I bet bigger, it's to polarise my range and also to bet/fold easier.

Personally I bet small with my entire range OR overbet in similar spots.

Our hand can look weird on the river if we raise turn but bet on a river that is bad for our value range.

Indeed. I think my overall point still stands, though - if we assign him 54ss, not sure why we don't also think 43ss is in his range. And we only need 2 possible combos of flushes we beat to make it a call.

vs a villain I know how to range accurately and have enough history to know how he bet sizes etc. then I like the line. I.e. you river bluff on rivers that can get him to fold, and you get paid well when you hit your flush.

What if his small bet was to induce, and then he 3bets your c/r and blows you off the draw? You were thinking about scenarios where villain didn't have it but not scenarios where he already did.

This was mentioned upthread, but if he he calls your c/r with a made hand, then river bluffing is going to be pretty hard.