Hero- playing tag but on the more nitty side than true tag while the villain has been seated. Have bluffed w/o showdown and doubled through with a set. Pretty standard. (450)

Villain- pretty fit or fold. No 3b's and not terribly splashy preflop. Has his stack because a maniac dumped 250 to him while he smooth called aces and shipped turn. I never expect anything tricky from him. Covers us barely.

Hero raises two limpers w/KQo to 13 from the CO.
V1 calls from the sb and every one else folds.

Pot- 30

Flop q 6 4 cc

V1 leads for 15 and we flat with no backdoor draws

Turn is a 2x

V1 leads for 25

I debate folding but I think we're ahead of enough flush draws to call less than 1/2 pot. I have him ranged on sets AA KK and flush draws.

River q and the villain leads for 25. We?

I think it's probably fold<raise<call. I think a clickback or 2.5 and folding to a shove targeting specifically AA, KK could be profitable? It's an odd spot where I plan on folding to any river aggression except for this card. Thoughts?

bet is silly small and we have trips 2nd kicker. Not raising seems criminal. Against this chip-check, r/f is essentially the same as b/f.

Seems like a standard r/f here.

Probably just make it ~$90 and fold to a 3 bet

Did he smooth call aces in postion?...and what was the image of the fish he stacked with the aa?....Because flatting aa or kk in the small blind, with 2 others to act is not very likely 66 and 44 seem far more likely.That being said, I think not raising is criminally bad and I would size it to 95/fold to a ship. He has all combos 77,88,99,1010 and JJ in his flatting range from the small blind.

Well, this is the crux of my question I suppose. In the hand with the maniac, who by all accounts was a top 5 fish that I've ever seen, he just flatted and let the guy over ship the flop for 4x pot. (he had the fish on his direct right.) So, I think the dynamics are different and I think only because the table had been so passive that he would elect to flat without fear of a multiway pot. We also have some KK combo blockers so that limits our value range on the river too.

But my question is... why is it criminal to not raise this on the turn, if it's criminal to not raise it on the river? Relatively speaking the q is a blank on the river and changes very, very little. Except for the few times he shows up with AA or KK, which is why I'm advocating clicking it back and folding to a ship. Also, I never expect him to barrel three times with an underpair to the board. When he barrels three times I think it's overpair+

villian bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn, and 1/4 of the pot on the river. Why are you weighing his range so heavily on sets? His bets scream scared value like 1010, or JJ. Although AA, and KK are in his range. Nobody has even mentioned the fact he could have QJ, I know its rare, but you can't miss a spot like this. Must raise......

Am I the only one who would be amazed at a nit trying to extract three streets of value from an under pair? Op said villian is a nit. Nits don't lead out half pot. Lead out half pot again and lead out quarter bet river with less than aq here. Arent aq 66 way more likely? Wouldnt the nit see our most likely calling hand to have a q in it and he still bets river so AA and KK have to be unlikely. Nits have mutb on full blast at all times. A nit would shut down and check that queen by slamming the table and moan calling a 3/4 pot sized bet and bemoan his luck.

I think calling is fine. This villain doesn't seem like the type to lead 2 streets into the PF raiser with just a draw, except for maybe 75.

by the river, I could only see this villain having trips or boats. If he did flat with AA or KK, he would probably not bet the river since the top card paired. Out of his range, 10 combos beat you (AQ - 4 combos and 6 combos of FH). If his PF range in terms of queens were say Q9s+, QJo+, then 10 combos out of 19 beat us, 3 tie.

He same-bet the river. This is almost never a monster. This is why not raising river is criminal. Of course Q isn't a blank, it paired the TP. River is very different than turn. Our relative hand strength went up, and his aggression went down.

I agree with you. I never expect a nit who is largely fit or fold to ever be three barreling anything we beat, except KK or AA. I think sizing and action could even make it more likely, tho.


Our hand strength did not go up in relation to his value range though. If we raise the river the ONLY two hands we are now ahead of now are AA and KK. Trips is almost the same hand has TPGK because all of his AQ's and FH's are still crushing us. I think the mindset of raising because we made trips is bad in this spot, but not terrible if we think we can target an unlikely AA or KK.

RIVER: I elect to make it 55 and he snap calls. I flip the KQ and he slowly tables the 66 FH like he can't believe he won.

As for reasons to raise the river, this pretty much nails it on the head. I have seen some pretty big nits in my time, but this guy pretty much takes the cake, the only way to exploit this guy is to fold if he even breathes on a pot.