$1/$2 NL at parx, effective stacks ~$340.

Villain is youngish (mid 20s) Asian woman. Early in my session, I had seen her do the following:

Call $10 raise in blinds with AJ, end up going to flop 4 ways.

Flop Jxx (I do not remember the exact cards, but it was fairly dry [but not bone dry] and Jack high)

She donked out into to the field for $15, the PFR raised to $30, she raised to $82, PFR shoves for $157 total, she folds her AJ face up.

My read from this is that she tends to overplay strong but not super-strong hands on the flop, but also has a fold button when facing resistance. She is also very aggressive pre on the button (probably raising ~50% of the time even over multiple limpers) and more aggro than the average $1/$2 player from other positions. more aggro than average for $1/$2 post but not super aggro or generally bluffy.


Hero is probably seen as TAG or NAG <nit aggressive> depending on people's views (since most live players perceive anything below about 25% VPIP as nitty).

Hero is on Button with TT. Villain is HJ.

Preflop ($3): UTG limps, Villain raises to $14, Hero calls $14, fold, fold, fold.

There is definitely a good argument for three-betting here, and I would three-bet this a fairly large portion of the time, but I think flatting in position is okay too. If you want to argue for always three-betting it, that's fine, but not the main point of the thread.

Flop ($33 [$30 post rake]): 789
Villain checks, Hero bets $17, Villain raises to $45, Hero???

Please discuss both your action here and plan for the rest of the hand. TY
(I should mention that I had not seen her x/r a flop as a PFR before and so I have no specific reads on what her range for doing so would be. Her c-bet percentage was reasonably high in position but I had not seen her play very many pots as PFR OOP so no real read on OOP c-bet percentage.)

Really feels like an overpair to me. A 4-straight will likely kill our action, So I think we could semi-bluff raise and see if she reacts like last time. Downside is that we really can't call a shove.

After her flop c/r the pot is 92, and it's 28 to call, for odds of 3.28-1. As a very rough guess I'd give her a flop c/r range of :

AA, KK, 99, 88, 77, AdKd-AdTd, Ad8d, KdQd-KdTd, QdJd-QdTd, Jd8d, Td8d, JTs, 98s, 97s

I would think villain would be worried about possibly giving a free card w/ QQ-TT here, so that's why I excluded them. Against this range we've got about 40% equity. Every hand and draw in her range is quite strong. The worst of her draws has 11 outs, the best have 15. A pot sized raise would be to 165, she would be getting 2-1 on a call, which would be pretty easy for her to make with her draws. She'd also probably shove with all of her made hands (of which there are 28 combos, to 12 for draws). Against just a range of AA, KK, 99-77, JTs, 98s, 97s you have 35% equity and would be forced to call a shove. If you raise to 165, and she shoves you'd have to call 161 for a pot of 421, odds of 2.6-1.

Since any meaningful raise would tie you to the pot, even if she only shoves with made hands, I think raising is out.

Our pot odds are quite good, but we may have a difficult time calling if the turn is a blank and she bets again. I would expect her to bet again with her draws at least some of the time. I honestly don't know if she'll double barrel them often enough for you to call down. Since most of her range will be drawing to beat you if you improve to a straight OTT you can probably get some value, but a decent amount of it will be lost should she improve OTR, as there will be so little left to bet that you'll more or less be committed.

Since raising and calling both have significant draw backs, I'd probably fold here.

I don't see how that makes calling such a bad play as much as raising. I feel like we have a strong hand IP vs someone who's shown a brain and is OOP. Villain doesn't sound like someone who'd bomb it OTT if a third diamond came and she didn't hit it anyways, plus while I agree 4 card straight on the board will kill action I don't see why that's enough to let go already. I'd flat and preferably see a non diamond J or 6, but a bunch of cards still keep our hand good. We're getting great odds to see the turn with what might be or become the best hand and were IP. If she has JT or other made already straight you'll get the message with a healthy bet assuming the turn bricks.

I would fold, because honestly I'd be lost OTT, regardless of what she does.

If she checks, is she checking two pair or her draws? If she bets is she double barreling her draws, or betting her best hands for value? We aren't going to get much meaningful information from her action on the next street and would probably be better off checking behind OTT. Once we do that we are setting ourselves up to get bluffed out and/or pay off on blank rivers.

Call. I'd think you're behind right now, but if a 6, 10, or a J hits, I think you get it all. C/F turn if you don't hit. I'd put her on an overpair.

Because she's so aggro, i'd call and put my reading glasses on. If she has an overpair, I don't think she would c/r here because you may check behind. I would weigh her range towards suited overcards from JT to AT. If she binked a set, she has to lead this board.

I'd bet at leat $20 in your shoes OP on the flop. And regarding the 3bet pre, I like raising ($45) because she's so active, and I don't mind taking it down pre.

Edit: and yes, there are a milion turn cards that suck, however her actions and sizing make it hard for me to believe that she doesn't need to improve.

..and lol at her having an overpair. If you had JJ - AA, would you lead or check that board?

But you would c/r AT?

And whether we would c/r overpairs is irrelevant. While this villain is not retarded or horrible, she's also probably not thinking about poker the same way that someone on this forum is.

I always get it in here.

My point about if hero would check or bet overpairs on that board is relavant because the answer seems simple to me, that we bet 2/3 or more of the pot to discourage draws. Most players do the same, whether or not they post on 2p2. Her check leads me to believe that her range is suited over, and she's trying to maximize fold equity with a checkraise. It helps us range her.

First we have to range her. Between her history and her young, Asian woman image we can conclude that she is more aggressive and probably somewhat more knowledgeable than the average 1/2 player. Her PFR range is roughly ATs+, AJo+, 88+, JTs+.

Checking this flop with any made hand (overpairs+) is awful and uncharacteristic of an aggressive player. I'd weigh the check/raise more towards air and estimate ~50% equity against this range. So we're not folding.

Of the 3 possible reasons for raising:

1. Worse will not call, so this is not the time for a value raise.
2. It's hard to tell if better hands will fold. Villain has been shown to fold TPTK even after 3betting. However, check/raising is such a strong move. I don't think she would do this with an overpair just to fold it, but then again, I don't give villains credit for ever 3bet folding either. Tough to estimate FE.
3. Raising to prevent us from making mistakes later on isn't a valid reason IMO. I don't give credit to villain check/raising us, watching us call, and then barreling OTT with air. If she fires $60-$100 again I am folding and not feeling too bad about it. This isn't Tom Dwan. If she checks OTT then I would bet 1/2 pot and if she check/raises (or calls and leads out a blank river) I would also fold.

So I would rather call.

With this much equity, raising can never be a terrible play. That being said, if we don't have FE we shouldn't be raising. I tend to err on the side of not having FE (what's the main leak of our villains? they call too much), especially when a villain shows strength.