1/2 NL folding TT as overpair to board? (AI on flop)

[Bruno876]

200 NL
I seem to getting into trouble with my middle pairs (88-JJ) (leak?)
line check?
Anyone else find a fold here despite the strong odds to call against a tight old woman? (or do i have MUBS?)

Table has been shifting between tight passive and loose passive. Hero has been playing tight and has a winning image. Hero has occasionally raised over limpers to take the hand down and has done so several times (no one has called). Hero is in twenties but dressed conservatively. Villain has seen hero get called down several times after raising pre with good hands (QQ, AKs).

Villian 1: UTG: $120 Woman in her late 50's 60's. She loves to limp, has not raised in the last two hours. However she tightens up her range to raises (she showed 75s and 910o that she folded when i raised over her limp).
Villain 2: No reads. 40's, male just sat down.

(9 handed other villains #s do not apply)
UTG +1 Villain 2: $150
UTG Villain 1: $74
BB: $150
SB: $ 200
Hero(Button): Covers 1010

Villain 1: limps $2. Villain 2 limps: 5 folds
Hero: raises to $16. SB: folds. BB: folds. Villain 1 calls
pot:$50
Raise is for value.

Flop: 973

BB: checks
Villain 1: checks
Hero: Bets $30
BB folds.
Villain 1: moves all in for $58 total
Hero? ($28 more to call)

At first glance this seems like a fist pump call with strong odds. But this woman is tight and there are not many hands that I beat that she would shove with. AA,KK,QQ,JJ, sets, and two pairs are all ahead of me. I felt she was NOT bluffing here, or making a move. Am I over thinking this?

Fold too nitty?

[ValueBluff]

Yes a fold here is turrible. I think you made a mistake in your hand description. Did villain 2 see the flop? You don't say he called pre and you say the pot is $50, but then you say he folded after the flop... and you would only list him as a villain if he at least saw the flop. So I think you went 4 handed to the flop right?

That means the pot going to the flop is more like $60-65 depending on rake. You bet $30 on the flop, villain moves in for $28 more. This means you are calling $28 to win $120, so yes folding is too nitty and terrible.

Tight old ladies don't limp with JJ+ UTG and then just call a raise when 3 other people are in the hand. If she had a monster she would have raised pre, or even if she got sneaky and limped, she definitely would have 3 bet pre. You can take JJ+ out of her range.

You said she folded a bunch of weak hands to raises like 75 and 910. So I highly doubt she called $16 pre with 97,93, or 73. You can take two pair out of her range.

Might she have flopped a set on you? Sure maybe, but for $28 you can't fold. She could have A9, K9 suited, maybe even a flush draw.

This is an easy call and I expect to be ahead a decent amount of the time.

[Bruno876]

Thanks for catching the mistake. It was three to the flop. I have edited OP.

[Ollieeeee]

Villains 1 shove should be a little over $100... And yes, call.

[Sticksv3]

Standard call regardless, odds too good.

[Pug Walker]

Easiest call in the world.

[playertee]

she's too short to fold, u played ur hand fine, whatever her hand is, u played ur hand in a +ev way, if she setmined or limp/called with AA, either way, ur play is fine, hers is not

[KDolla83]

28 to win 138 = 4.9-1....super easy call. You played your hand good. Don't be results oriented because you lost.

[chaser3]

Super grunch.

All I read was I have TT on a 9 high board and I only have to call $28 more after c-betting $30.

Snap call AINEC.

[Rusty Bumwaters]

yeah call, but to put her on a range...

AA-TT, 88, sets, flush draws (she may be thinking I'm going to call and only have $28 left, might as well put it in), then there's always the (very small) possibility of a weird random play

You do have backdoor straight and flush possibilities when you're beat, not to mention set possibilities

[Ollieeeee]

It's $78 more to call, not $28. But still, call.

[playertee]

Originally Posted by Ollieeeee

It's $78 more to call, not $28. But still, call.

nah Villain 1 has 58$ going to the flop...UTG is villain 1 not UTG+1

[Bene Gesserit]

Call is right, but don't be suprised at what she might have at this level or what she might draw out LOL Hazards of 1-2 1-3

[quesuerte]

Understand that her ranges are almost certain to change as she gets shrter stacked, especially with tiny SPRs. It is not that she is thinking in these terms, it just happens naturally. Sometimes in poker hands play themselves, this is one of them. What do you expect her to do with any 9 or and spades here?

[g_c]

This is just a fist pump snap call. You have the best hand more than half the time. Unlucky if you lost the hand. A fold is terrible. If you're against a set or 2 pair you can always hit a 10, backdoor straight or flush or pair the board vs 2 pair. You have 9% equity against a bigger pair as well.