I seem to getting into trouble with my middle pairs (88-JJ) (leak?)
Anyone else find a fold here despite the strong odds to call against a tight old woman? (or do i have MUBS?)
Table has been shifting between tight passive and loose passive. Hero has been playing tight and has a winning image. Hero has occasionally raised over limpers to take the hand down and has done so several times (no one has called). Hero is in twenties but dressed conservatively. Villain has seen hero get called down several times after raising pre with good hands (QQ, AKs).
Villian 1: UTG: $120 Woman in her late 50's 60's. She loves to limp, has not raised in the last two hours. However she tightens up her range to raises (she showed 75s and 910o that she folded when i raised over her limp).
Villain 2: No reads. 40's, male just sat down.
(9 handed other villains #s do not apply)
UTG +1 Villain 2: $150
UTG Villain 1: $74
SB: $ 200
Hero(Button): Covers 10
Villain 1: limps $2. Villain 2 limps: 5 folds
Hero: raises to $16. SB: folds. BB: folds. Villain 1 calls
Raise is for value.
Villain 1: checks
Hero: Bets $30
Villain 1: moves all in for $58 total
Hero? ($28 more to call)
At first glance this seems like a fist pump call with strong odds. But this woman is tight and there are not many hands that I beat that she would shove with. AA,KK,QQ,JJ, sets, and two pairs are all ahead of me. I felt she was NOT bluffing here, or making a move. Am I over thinking this?
Fold too nitty?